Skipton and Ripon: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Skipton and Ripon: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Julian Smith  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 74,270
Turnout: 78.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority19,99034.4%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Skipton and Ripon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Skipton and Ripon constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Economic Position10° Right3° Left
National Position7° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%58%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job53%47%51%
High SEC57%46%51%
Average Age52.748.548.5
ABC1 Class56%49%53%

Skipton and Ripon ranks #291 for "Leave", #88 for "Right" and #190 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Skipton and Ripon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Skipton and Ripon been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Skipton and Ripon

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Skipton and Ripon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Skipton and Ripon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Skipton and RiponTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,823Skipton and Ripon1,266749006702002,102
CravenBarden Fell1,333Skipton and Ripon72912200900500991
CravenBentham2,847Skipton and Ripon1,1767050014209702,120
CravenCowling1,897Skipton and Ripon844511004501301,413
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,489Skipton and Ripon6702760015101001,107
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,390Skipton and Ripon1,210511003802001,779
CravenGlusburn3,140Skipton and Ripon1,2558680011509802,336
CravenGrassington1,252Skipton and Ripon65821600410170932
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,709Skipton and Ripon855349004901901,272
CravenIngleton and Clapham2,984Skipton and Ripon1,5235050086010602,220
CravenPenyghent1,519Skipton and Ripon765298005601101,130
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks2,806Skipton and Ripon1,1915680030302702,089
CravenSkipton East2,639Skipton and Ripon1,1126050022602201,965
CravenSkipton North2,729Skipton and Ripon1,0716070027907402,031
CravenSkipton South2,958Skipton and Ripon8501,03000209011302,202
CravenSkipton West3,211Skipton and Ripon1,0871,0410020106202,391
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,842Skipton and Ripon81783500324014002,116
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,478Skipton and Ripon860187003402001,101
CravenWest Craven1,529Skipton and Ripon80528000450801,138
HarrogateBishop Monkton2,251Skipton and Ripon1,282326004801901,675
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2,457Skipton and Ripon1,395337007801901,829
HarrogateLower Nidderdale2,537Skipton and Ripon1,462360004801901,889
HarrogateMashamshire1,830Skipton and Ripon1,029278003701701,361
HarrogateNewby2,438Skipton and Ripon1,354410004001101,815
HarrogateNidd Valley2,470Skipton and Ripon1,2374620010703301,839
HarrogatePateley Bridge2,140Skipton and Ripon1,058433007103101,593
HarrogateRipon Minster4,236Skipton and Ripon1,6471,02400363012003,154
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,955Skipton and Ripon1,74393100132013702,943
HarrogateRipon Spa4,948Skipton and Ripon2,41592300187015803,683
HarrogateWashburn2,538Skipton and Ripon1,525274006702201,888
HarrogateWathvale2,733Skipton and Ripon1,537417005502602,035
 Total78,108 36,42816,438003,73401,539058,139

The full details of these calculations are given on the Skipton and Ripon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Skipton and Ripon

The new seat of Skipton and Ripon is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Skipton and Ripon
Old Seat CON
CravenAire Valley with Lothersdale2,824Skipton and Ripon1,266749006702002,102
CravenBarden Fell1,247Skipton and Ripon72912200900500991
CravenBentham2,795Skipton and Ripon1,1767050014209702,120
CravenCowling1,707Skipton and Ripon844511004501301,413
CravenEmbsay-with-Eastby1,479Skipton and Ripon6702760015101001,107
CravenGargrave and Malhamdale2,462Skipton and Ripon1,210511003802001,779
CravenGlusburn2,944Skipton and Ripon1,2558680011509802,336
CravenGrassington1,201Skipton and Ripon65821600410170932
CravenHellifield and Long Preston1,709Skipton and Ripon855349004901901,272
CravenIngleton and Clapham3,019Skipton and Ripon1,5235050086010602,220
CravenPenyghent1,391Skipton and Ripon765298005601101,130
CravenSettle and Ribblebanks2,920Skipton and Ripon1,1915680030302702,089
CravenSkipton East2,665Skipton and Ripon1,1126050022602201,965
CravenSkipton North2,731Skipton and Ripon1,0716070027907402,031
CravenSkipton South2,505Skipton and Ripon8501,03000209011302,202
CravenSkipton West2,724Skipton and Ripon1,0871,0410020106202,391
CravenSutton-in-Craven2,763Skipton and Ripon81783500324014002,116
CravenUpper Wharfedale1,506Skipton and Ripon860187003402001,101
CravenWest Craven1,535Skipton and Ripon80528000450801,138
HarrogateBishop Monkton2,220Skipton and Ripon1,282326004801901,675
HarrogateKirkby Malzeard2,465Skipton and Ripon1,395337007801901,829
HarrogateLower Nidderdale2,451Skipton and Ripon1,462360004801901,889
HarrogateMashamshire1,837Skipton and Ripon1,029278003701701,361
HarrogateNewby2,441Skipton and Ripon1,354410004001101,815
HarrogateNidd Valley2,172Skipton and Ripon1,2374620010703301,839
HarrogatePateley Bridge2,022Skipton and Ripon1,058433007103101,593
HarrogateRipon Minster3,871Skipton and Ripon1,6471,02400363012003,154
HarrogateRipon Moorside3,814Skipton and Ripon1,74393100132013702,943
HarrogateRipon Spa4,081Skipton and Ripon2,41592300187015803,683
HarrogateWashburn2,517Skipton and Ripon1,525274006702201,888
HarrogateWathvale2,252Skipton and Ripon1,537417005502602,035
 Total74,270 36,42816,438003,73401,539058,139

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Skipton and Ripon.

© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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