Somerset North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Somerset North East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jacob Rees-Mogg  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 73,006
Turnout: 79.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,64854.4%
LAB17,55430.2%
LIB7,34312.6%
Green1,1842.0%
OTH4840.8%
CON Majority14,09424.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Somerset North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Somerset North East constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education28%40%39%
Good Job45%50%51%
High SEC44%52%51%
Average Age48.950.548.5
ABC1 Class45%54%53%

Somerset North East ranks #328 for "Leave", #318 for "Right" and #352 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Somerset North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Somerset North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Somerset North East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Somerset North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Somerset North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Somerset North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon North5,856Bath2,4121,281592012500264,436
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon South2,493Bath98148132109300131,889
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,919Somerset North East86835613707700161,454
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North1,960Somerset North East9972831310660081,485
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South1,940Somerset North East1,0183147804700121,469
Bath and North East SomersetClutton2,104Somerset North East8984661920280091,593
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,030Somerset North East1,1032841300120081,537
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,470Somerset North East1,2364171360740091,872
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,430Somerset North East2,00393335804600163,356
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,226Somerset North East1,7121,27113706500153,200
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,166Somerset North East1,6201,29718504000143,156
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,202Somerset North East1,10837111705800131,667
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,797Somerset North East1,9721,32223307900283,634
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,198Somerset North East1,8971,05415106000193,181
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,366Somerset North East1,3181,67722504000463,306
Bath and North East SomersetPeasedown5,290Bath1,7241,793295054001394,005
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,017Somerset North East1,062326850460081,527
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock4,597Somerset North East1,3961,58934809000583,481
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,339Somerset North East1,50166829804900152,531
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,151Somerset North East7436769804600661,629
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,800Somerset North East1,4221,89821405000513,635
 Total71,351 28,99118,7574,46101,2450058954,043

The full details of these calculations are given on the Somerset North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Somerton and Frome

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Somerton and Frome, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Somerton and FromeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAmmerdown1,946Somerset North East83821231808300141,465
MendipBeckington and Selwood1,721Somerton and Frome85415120507000151,295
MendipButleigh and Baltonsborough1,784Somerton and Frome8838931804100121,343
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,853Somerset North East1,701572469012800312,901
MendipCranmore, Doulting and Nunney1,936Somerton and Frome86819833204200171,457
MendipCreech1,824Somerton and Frome84621424605200151,373
MendipFrome Berkley Down3,674Somerton and Frome1,49664251807700352,768
MendipFrome College3,585Somerton and Frome1,44848466307900252,699
MendipFrome Keyford3,930Somerton and Frome1,045961648025800492,961
MendipFrome Market4,201Somerton and Frome1,220914673031300453,165
MendipFrome Oakfield2,081Somerton and Frome595450396010600201,567
MendipFrome Park3,961Somerton and Frome1,19189183103600342,983
MendipPostlebury1,789Somerton and Frome86217721008300161,348
MendipRode and Norton St Philip1,820Somerton and Frome93811529301300121,371
MendipThe Pennards and Ditcheat1,772Somerton and Frome9199427503400121,334
South SomersetBlackmoor Vale4,460Somerton and Frome2,19435474803100333,360
South SomersetBruton2,380Somerton and Frome1,047280327011800211,793
South SomersetBurrow Hill1,804Somerton and Frome86919225303200131,359
South SomersetCamelot2,254Somerton and Frome1,20919326801000181,698
South SomersetCary4,489Somerton and Frome1,98340487108900333,380
South SomersetCurry Rivel2,125Somerton and Frome937155171017003201,600
South SomersetIslemoor2,289Somerton and Frome1,10826231802400131,725
South SomersetLangport and Huish2,311Somerton and Frome89534141507400161,741
South SomersetMartock4,684Somerton and Frome2,11252483102500343,526
South SomersetMilborne Port2,294Somerton and Frome97224547301800191,727
South SomersetNorthstone2,465Somerton and Frome1,20522137903700151,857
South SomersetTower1,970Somerton and Frome1,04615120806500131,483
South SomersetTurn Hill2,279Somerton and Frome1,12921134901100171,717
South SomersetWessex4,434Somerton and Frome1,94663670302300313,339
South SomersetWincanton4,322Somerton and Frome1,87566561505700443,256
 Total84,437 36,23110,99813,32402,0460099263,591

The full details of these calculations are given on the Somerton and Frome seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,867Somerset North East1,6242041,016000092,853
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,712Somerset North East1,04825189000011,263
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,779Wells76325521000041,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,077Wells686343497000061,532
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,775Wells449152705000031,309
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,659Wells597222398000061,223
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,649Wells506171537000031,217
MendipMoor2,013Wells91932532000031,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,697Wells62576545000061,252
MendipShepton East4,259Somerset North East1,4025611,174000073,144
MendipShepton West3,895Somerset North East1,1617789240000112,874
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,939Wells7041495470000311,431
MendipStreet North3,179Wells1,228206906000052,345
MendipStreet South4,618Wells1,4953491,4930000693,406
MendipStreet West1,630Wells70436457000061,203
MendipWells Central1,561Wells53179538000031,151
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,356Wells1,077584811000042,476
MendipWells St Thomas'3,507Wells1,1941171,269000082,588
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2,031Wells780114602000021,498
SedgemoorAxevale3,406Wells1,4312917810000102,513
SedgemoorBerrow1,759Wells75874463000031,298
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,719Wells1,9674011,844000084,220
SedgemoorBurnham North5,017Wells2,0182421,438000053,703
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,445Wells2,1933761,4370000124,018
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,950Wells1,4551,1431,7130000814,392
SedgemoorKnoll3,111Wells1,471123693000092,296
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,841Wells1,699256875000052,835
 Total82,451 30,4857,12922,905000032060,839

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Somerset North East

The new seat of Somerset North East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Somerset North East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Bath and North East SomersetBathavon West1,984Somerset North East86835613707700161,454
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley North1,923Somerset North East9972831310660081,485
Bath and North East SomersetChew Valley South2,037Somerset North East1,0183147804700121,469
Bath and North East SomersetClutton1,993Somerset North East8984661920280091,593
Bath and North East SomersetFarmborough2,034Somerset North East1,1032841300120081,537
Bath and North East SomersetHigh Littleton2,358Somerset North East1,2364171360740091,872
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham East4,412Somerset North East2,00393335804600163,356
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham North4,001Somerset North East1,7121,27113706500153,200
Bath and North East SomersetKeynsham South4,034Somerset North East1,6201,29718504000143,156
Bath and North East SomersetMendip2,111Somerset North East1,10837111705800131,667
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton North4,468Somerset North East1,9721,32223307900283,634
Bath and North East SomersetMidsomer Norton Redfield4,170Somerset North East1,8971,05415106000193,181
Bath and North East SomersetPaulton4,332Somerset North East1,3181,67722504000463,306
Bath and North East SomersetPublow and Whitchurch2,018Somerset North East1,062326850460081,527
Bath and North East SomersetRadstock3,928Somerset North East1,3961,58934809000583,481
Bath and North East SomersetSaltford3,419Somerset North East1,50166829804900152,531
Bath and North East SomersetTimsbury2,067Somerset North East7436769804600661,629
Bath and North East SomersetWestfield4,532Somerset North East1,4221,89821405000513,635
MendipAmmerdown1,810Somerton and Frome83821231808300141,465
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,342Wells1,6242041,016000092,853
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,611Wells1,04825189000011,263
MendipColeford and Holcombe3,570Somerton and Frome1,701572469012800312,901
MendipShepton East3,331Wells1,4025611,174000073,144
MendipShepton West3,521Wells1,1617789240000112,874
 Total73,006 31,64817,5547,34301,1840048458,213

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Somerset North East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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