Southend West and Hadleigh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Southend West and Hadleigh: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Amess  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,732
Turnout: 71.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,36656.9%
LAB17,42132.6%
LIB2,2774.3%
UKIP1,9883.7%
Green8311.6%
OTH4900.9%
CON Majority12,94524.3%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Southend West and Hadleigh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Southend West and Hadleigh constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position12° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%57%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job41%53%51%
High SEC43%53%51%
Average Age52.049.448.5
ABC1 Class43%55%53%

Southend West and Hadleigh ranks #211 for "Leave", #86 for "Right" and #87 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Southend West and Hadleigh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Southend West and Hadleigh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Southend West and Hadleigh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Castle Point

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Castle Point, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Castle PointTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Castle PointAppleton5,342Castle Point2,3578074323100003,438
Castle PointBoyce5,300Castle Point2,4926883619400003,410
Castle PointCanvey Island Central5,302Castle Point2,1121,0619214700003,412
Castle PointCanvey Island East5,054Castle Point2,18978310118000003,253
Castle PointCanvey Island North5,117Castle Point2,0879866615500003,294
Castle PointCanvey Island South5,263Castle Point2,23890610314100003,388
Castle PointCanvey Island West3,672Castle Point1,6155706211600002,363
Castle PointCanvey Island Winter Gardens5,744Castle Point2,3401,1688610300003,697
Castle PointCedar Hall4,549Castle Point2,0016588218600002,927
Castle PointSt George's4,579Castle Point1,9567256620000002,947
Castle PointSt James5,133Southend West and Hadleigh2,3157369515800003,304
Castle PointSt Mary's4,844Castle Point2,1147287320400003,119
Castle PointSt Peter's5,094Castle Point2,2587487120100003,278
Castle PointVictoria4,477Southend West and Hadleigh2,0046407216500002,881
 Total69,470 30,07811,2041,0482,381000044,711

The full details of these calculations are given on the Castle Point seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Southend West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Southend West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Southend WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Southend-on-SeaBelfairs7,030Southend West and Hadleigh2,8071,4811173884200674,902
Southend-on-SeaBlenheim Park8,020Southend West and Hadleigh2,8592,01022636710200285,592
Southend-on-SeaChalkwell7,744Southend West and Hadleigh3,2311,815954811400965,399
Southend-on-SeaEastwood Park7,164Southend West and Hadleigh3,0461,3903051666100274,995
Southend-on-SeaLeigh7,620Southend West and Hadleigh2,9751,7473801017500265,313
Southend-on-SeaPrittlewell7,490Southend West and Hadleigh2,8841,824258997400845,223
Southend-on-SeaSt Laurence7,349Southend West and Hadleigh2,5991,7873033644600245,123
Southend-on-SeaWest Leigh6,996Southend West and Hadleigh3,2361,1951901685600324,877
Southend-on-SeaWestborough8,265Southend West and Hadleigh2,4102,79623655161001065,764
 Total67,678 26,04716,0452,1101,6658310049047,188

The full details of these calculations are given on the Southend West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Southend West and Hadleigh

The new seat of Southend West and Hadleigh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Southend West and Hadleigh
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Castle PointSt James5,259Castle Point2,3157369515800003,304
Castle PointVictoria4,521Castle Point2,0046407216500002,881
Southend-on-SeaBelfairs7,262Southend West2,8071,4811173884200674,902
Southend-on-SeaBlenheim Park7,713Southend West2,8592,01022636710200285,592
Southend-on-SeaChalkwell6,726Southend West3,2311,815954811400965,399
Southend-on-SeaEastwood Park7,477Southend West3,0461,3903051666100274,995
Southend-on-SeaLeigh7,124Southend West2,9751,7473801017500265,313
Southend-on-SeaPrittlewell7,419Southend West2,8841,824258997400845,223
Southend-on-SeaSt Laurence7,328Southend West2,5991,7873033644600245,123
Southend-on-SeaWest Leigh6,947Southend West3,2361,1951901685600324,877
Southend-on-SeaWestborough6,956Southend West2,4102,79623655161001065,764
 Total74,732 30,36617,4212,2771,9888310049053,373

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Southend West and Hadleigh.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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