St Ives: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

St Ives: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Derek Thomas  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 73,971
Turnout: 80.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,51444.3%
LIB22,11236.9%
LAB10,98118.3%
Green2630.4%
CON Majority4,4027.4%

See overview of other seats in South West.

St Ives : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new St Ives constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education39%40%39%
Good Job51%50%51%
High SEC54%52%51%
Average Age52.750.548.5
ABC1 Class53%54%53%

St Ives ranks #293 for "Leave", #377 for "Right" and #388 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Ives: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for St Ives been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of St Ives

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and RedruthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,972Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,156866850270002,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,650Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1931,334690260002,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,441Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1501,168750790002,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,430Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9881,1632160980002,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,008Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0021,046840270002,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,488Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8537455801310001,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,739Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,787812150710002,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,894St Ives820491300190001,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,543Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2261,1741190270002,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,500St Ives991649830730001,796
CornwallHayle North3,776St Ives1,2251,3101040730002,712
CornwallHayle South3,325St Ives1,1271,147860280002,388
CornwallIllogan3,728Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,3891,0162370360002,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,784Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,4131,196610480002,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,365Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2598083070440002,418
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,589Truro and Newquay7968159200460002,577
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,269Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9211,349670100002,347
CornwallRedruth Central3,013Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,143911950150002,164
CornwallRedruth North4,762Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1752,0891140410003,419
CornwallRedruth South3,209Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0171,178570530002,305
CornwallSt Agnes437Truro and Newquay138759309000315
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage541St Ives232843070000389
 Total67,463 23,00121,4262,97801,05100048,456

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: St Ives

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Ives, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St IvesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,467St Ives1,662170802000002,634
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,313St Ives847211698000001,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,436St Ives6863531,570000002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,085St Ives37912532000000824
CornwallHelston North3,721St Ives1,4382511,136000002,825
CornwallHelston South4,228St Ives1,2893091,612000003,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,067St Ives1,187266876000002,329
CornwallLudgvan3,269St Ives1,364169949000002,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,678St Ives1,5052751,014000002,794
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,127St Ives1,1332021,039000002,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,425St Ives1,292380929000002,601
CornwallPenzance Central3,215St Ives5498091,084000002,442
CornwallPenzance East3,644St Ives5599001,309000002,768
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,958St Ives7144701,062000002,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,363St Ives1,1142731,167000002,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,748St Ives1,3644681,014000002,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,933St Ives1,091209928000002,228
CornwallSt Ives West3,376St Ives8715531,139000002,563
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,721St Ives7615481,516000002,825
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,935St Ives1,7402441,003000002,987
Isles of ScillyBryher67St Ives186270000051
Isles of ScillySt Agnes68St Ives236230000052
Isles of ScillySt Martin's108St Ives346420000082
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,367St Ives45489495000001,038
Isles of ScillyTresco139St Ives4585200000105
 Total67,458 22,1197,30021,8060000051,225

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Ives seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: St Ives

The new seat of St Ives is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: St Ives
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,397St Ives1,662170802000002,634
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,847Camborne and Redruth751316328090001,404
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,255St Ives9163864000100001,712
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,140St Ives6863531,570000002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,402Camborne and Redruth9555402810510001,827
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,042St Ives415234122022000793
CornwallHayle North3,387Camborne and Redruth1,2251,3101040730002,712
CornwallHayle South3,107Camborne and Redruth1,1271,147860280002,388
CornwallHelston North3,504St Ives1,4382511,136000002,825
CornwallHelston South3,734St Ives1,2893091,612000003,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay2,993St Ives1,187266876000002,329
CornwallLudgvan3,157St Ives1,364169949000002,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,477St Ives1,5052751,014000002,794
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,211St Ives1,1332021,039000002,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,233St Ives1,292380929000002,601
CornwallPenzance Central2,903St Ives5498091,084000002,442
CornwallPenzance East2,907St Ives5599001,309000002,768
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,938St Ives7144701,062000002,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,145St Ives1,1142731,167000002,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,424St Ives1,3644681,014000002,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,668St Ives1,091209928000002,228
CornwallSt Ives West3,011St Ives8715531,139000002,563
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,591St Ives7615481,516000002,825
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage465Camborne and Redruth2384012208000408
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,382St Ives1,7342888840620002,968
Isles of ScillyBryher63St Ives186270000051
Isles of ScillySt Agnes64St Ives236230000052
Isles of ScillySt Martin's102St Ives346420000082
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,291St Ives45489495000001,038
Isles of ScillyTresco131St Ives4585200000105
 Total73,971 26,51410,98122,112026300059,870

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of St Ives.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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