Stevenage: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stevenage: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Stephen McPartland  (CON)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:74,824
Turnout:69.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,86751.4%
LAB22,07342.2%
LIB2,1624.1%
Green1,1962.3%
CON Majority4,7949.2%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stevenage been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Stevenage: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Stevenage

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hertfordshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hertfordshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hertfordshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,061Letchworth and Royston1,024315600880001,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,289Letchworth and Royston2,08473616301570003,140
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,769Welwyn Hatfield980232520720001,336
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South1,968Welwyn Hatfield1,0772581030430001,481
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,857Letchworth and Royston1,032270530890001,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,927Letchworth and Royston1,060305470390001,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,032Letchworth and Royston991386770890001,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,180Letchworth and Royston1,284391720520001,799
East HertfordshireWalkern2,085Stevenage1,134370620470001,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,880Stevenage935288690670001,359
North HertfordshireArbury2,045Letchworth and Royston1,0592821490980001,588
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,251Letchworth and Royston9303822900800001,682
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,647Letchworth and Royston2,5001,26126602670004,294
North HertfordshireErmine1,949Letchworth and Royston1,102261620940001,519
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,222Letchworth and Royston1,3521,45020502130003,220
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,492Letchworth and Royston2,0291,65834502250004,257
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,415Letchworth and Royston2,2041,60024502120004,261
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West5,910Letchworth and Royston2,5541,21749803160004,585
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury3,905Letchworth and Royston1,3131,41319201690003,087
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,166Letchworth and Royston1,75474039501540003,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,078Letchworth and Royston1,91170635401670003,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace3,964Letchworth and Royston1,57099431901530003,036
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,637Letchworth and Royston7082361980740001,216
 Total72,729 32,58715,7514,27602,96500055,579

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hertfordshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stevenage

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stevenage, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StevenageTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireDatchworth and Aston1,911Stevenage926286170240001,253
North HertfordshireCodicote2,107Stevenage925376290330001,363
North HertfordshireKnebworth3,922Stevenage1,850773650670002,755
StevenageBandley Hill4,833Stevenage1,7931,4761390710003,479
StevenageBedwell4,626Stevenage1,3622,0841460790003,671
StevenageChells4,775Stevenage1,6831,5502360770003,546
StevenageLongmeadow4,284Stevenage1,6511,300820680003,101
StevenageManor4,735Stevenage1,7821,2043010620003,349
StevenageMartins Wood4,410Stevenage1,5981,5001420720003,312
StevenageOld Town5,719Stevenage2,1471,75117301020004,173
StevenagePin Green4,411Stevenage1,4441,549860800003,159
StevenageRoebuck4,691Stevenage1,5961,5411280730003,338
StevenageShephall4,324Stevenage1,3371,757870700003,251
StevenageSt Nicholas4,696Stevenage1,5021,7971590720003,530
StevenageSymonds Green4,142Stevenage1,4411,3711360710003,019
StevenageWoodfield3,974Stevenage1,7611,1001050610003,027
 Total67,560 24,79821,4152,03101,08200049,326

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stevenage seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stevenage

The new seat of Stevenage is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stevenage
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireDatchworth and Aston1,797Stevenage926286170240001,253
East HertfordshireWalkern2,204Hertfordshire North East1,134370620470001,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,857Hertfordshire North East935288690670001,359
North HertfordshireCodicote1,955Stevenage925376290330001,363
North HertfordshireKnebworth3,952Stevenage1,850773650670002,755
StevenageBandley Hill4,992Stevenage1,7931,4761390710003,479
StevenageBedwell5,267Stevenage1,3622,0841460790003,671
StevenageChells5,088Stevenage1,6831,5502360770003,546
StevenageLongmeadow4,449Stevenage1,6511,300820680003,101
StevenageManor4,804Stevenage1,7821,2043010620003,349
StevenageMartins Wood4,751Stevenage1,5981,5001420720003,312
StevenageOld Town5,987Stevenage2,1471,75117301020004,173
StevenagePin Green4,531Stevenage1,4441,549860800003,159
StevenageRoebuck4,789Stevenage1,5961,5411280730003,338
StevenageShephall4,664Stevenage1,3371,757870700003,251
StevenageSt Nicholas5,064Stevenage1,5021,7971590720003,530
StevenageSymonds Green4,331Stevenage1,4411,3711360710003,019
StevenageWoodfield4,342Stevenage1,7611,1001050610003,027
 Total74,824 26,86722,0732,16201,19600052,298

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stevenage. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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