Stockton West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stockton West: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Williams  (LAB)
County/Area: Teesside (North East)
Electorate: 74,805
Turnout: 68.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB24,79748.6%
CON23,41445.9%
UKIP1,3912.7%
LIB1,1222.2%
Green3210.6%
LAB Majority1,3832.7%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Stockton West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stockton West constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Left
National Position7° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%58%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health46%44%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education38%35%39%
Good Job51%46%51%
High SEC50%44%51%
Average Age50.049.048.5
ABC1 Class51%47%53%

Stockton West ranks #157 for "Leave", #299 for "Right" and #192 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stockton West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stockton West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Stockton West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Stockton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stockton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stockton NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham Central5,224Hartlepool and Billingham9352,077156167330003,368
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham East5,294Hartlepool and Billingham9282,166112031050003,413
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham North6,596Hartlepool and Billingham2,1051,95125148240004,253
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham South4,863Hartlepool and Billingham1,1631,75917166300003,135
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham West4,033Stockton West1,50093434117150002,600
Stockton-on-TeesHardwick and Salters Lane5,117Stockton West8142,30742126100003,299
Stockton-on-TeesNewtown5,358Stockton West1,0052,2768147180003,454
Stockton-on-TeesNorthern Parishes2,418Stockton West1,087422143140001,558
Stockton-on-TeesNorton North4,977Stockton West9902,05730120110003,208
Stockton-on-TeesNorton South5,379Middlesbrough West and Stockton East1,0892,049141172170003,468
Stockton-on-TeesNorton West4,526Stockton West1,3461,4345661210002,918
Stockton-on-TeesRoseworth5,223Stockton West9032,22013214160003,366
Stockton-on-TeesStockton Town Centre4,811Middlesbrough West and Stockton East7362,17147110380003,102
Stockton-on-TeesWestern Parishes2,459Stockton West9874795152170001,586
 Total66,278 15,58824,3026451,83435900042,728

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stockton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stockton South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stockton South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stockton SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stockton-on-TeesBishopsgarth and Elm Tree5,024Stockton West1,4301,8822125010003,575
Stockton-on-TeesEaglescliffe8,022Stockton West3,3091,96131390360005,709
Stockton-on-TeesFairfield4,454Stockton West1,6351,3525612610003,170
Stockton-on-TeesGrangefield5,115Stockton West1,5001,92452149160003,641
Stockton-on-TeesHartburn5,025Stockton West2,2531,218604230003,576
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick East7,747Middlesbrough West and Stockton East3,0452,19413195670005,514
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick West8,316Middlesbrough West and Stockton East3,3552,441309120005,919
Stockton-on-TeesMandale and Victoria8,433Middlesbrough West and Stockton East1,6504,10721174490006,001
Stockton-on-TeesParkfield and Oxbridge5,746Stockton West1,4792,37952631170004,090
Stockton-on-TeesStainsby Hill4,988Middlesbrough West and Stockton East1,0542,352599390003,549
Stockton-on-TeesVillage5,311Middlesbrough West and Stockton East1,3262,339910150003,780
Stockton-on-TeesYarm7,439Stockton West3,1761,9521293350005,295
 Total75,620 25,21226,1019521,18337100053,819

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stockton South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stockton West

The new seat of Stockton West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stockton West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham West4,521Stockton North1,50093434117150002,600
Stockton-on-TeesBishopsgarth and Elm Tree5,023Stockton South1,4301,8822125010003,575
Stockton-on-TeesEaglescliffe7,912Stockton South3,3091,96131390360005,709
Stockton-on-TeesFairfield4,535Stockton South1,6351,3525612610003,170
Stockton-on-TeesGrangefield5,133Stockton South1,5001,92452149160003,641
Stockton-on-TeesHardwick and Salters Lane4,813Stockton North8142,30742126100003,299
Stockton-on-TeesHartburn5,256Stockton South2,2531,218604230003,576
Stockton-on-TeesNewtown4,771Stockton North1,0052,2768147180003,454
Stockton-on-TeesNorthern Parishes2,954Stockton North1,087422143140001,558
Stockton-on-TeesNorton North4,767Stockton North9902,05730120110003,208
Stockton-on-TeesNorton West5,062Stockton North1,3461,4345661210002,918
Stockton-on-TeesParkfield and Oxbridge5,117Stockton South1,4792,37952631170004,090
Stockton-on-TeesRoseworth4,922Stockton North9032,22013214160003,366
Stockton-on-TeesWestern Parishes2,634Stockton North9874795152170001,586
Stockton-on-TeesYarm7,385Stockton South3,1761,9521293350005,295
 Total74,805 23,41424,7971,1221,39132100051,045

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stockton West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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