Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ruth Smeeth  (LAB)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 75,725
Turnout: 59.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB22,30849.4%
CON21,08346.7%
LIB8952.0%
Green6841.5%
UKIP1020.2%
MIN320.1%
OTH130.0%
LAB Majority1,2252.7%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position1° Left2° Right
National Position18° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health54%45%48%
UK Born97%89%88%
Good Education35%35%39%
Good Job50%48%51%
High SEC58%46%51%
Average Age49.448.748.5
ABC1 Class51%49%53%

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove ranks #10 for "Leave", #365 for "Right" and #14 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Staffordshire Moorlands

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Staffordshire Moorlands, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Staffordshire MoorlandsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,968Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,1137912904303202,008
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,150Staffordshire Moorlands550168190210190777
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,324Staffordshire Moorlands688153280160120897
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East5,411Staffordshire Moorlands1,0792,4195804010003,660
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,401Staffordshire Moorlands5932794020700948
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,193Staffordshire Moorlands1,53893014704021802,837
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,453Staffordshire Moorlands424361161020350983
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,448Staffordshire Moorlands1,5011,28639041014203,009
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,196Staffordshire Moorlands1,58178040202005602,839
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,474Staffordshire Moorlands7691775060410998
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,780Staffordshire Moorlands1,519280410103901,880
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,595Staffordshire Moorlands2,2237222405908003,108
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,653Staffordshire Moorlands1,300375902009101,795
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,331Staffordshire Moorlands7789315030100899
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,570Staffordshire Moorlands765228210804001,062
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,514Staffordshire Moorlands807182140701501,025
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,518Staffordshire Moorlands6642622101806201,027
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,238Staffordshire Moorlands1,66393597069010302,867
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,591Staffordshire Moorlands1,0971,8673105006103,106
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,897Staffordshire Moorlands1,6571,34397082013303,312
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,968Staffordshire Moorlands1,685696152051010002,684
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,588Staffordshire Moorlands8431624401201401,075
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,751Staffordshire Moorlands1,127643380205301,863
 Total66,012 25,96415,1321,496054101,526044,659

The full details of these calculations are given on the Staffordshire Moorlands seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend6,794Stoke-on-Trent Central1,4372,033123135400213,870
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,222Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,048684486200101,834
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley7,547Stoke-on-Trent Central1,4432,39034221200284,298
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park7,527Stoke-on-Trent Central2,0951,99174821000354,287
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,356Stoke-on-Trent Central9371,249921355200152,480
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,149Stoke-on-Trent Central7599361071100171,794
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,154Stoke-on-Trent Central4601,1745177260091,797
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant0Stoke-on-Trent Central000000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham3Stoke-on-Trent South and Stone100000001
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,494Stoke-on-Trent Central7361,61612327100122,560
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,559Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1561,21072885700142,597
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,534Stoke-on-Trent Central6501,178401033100112,013
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,516Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1881,19298393600202,573
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green764Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove2281843161003435
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,576Stoke-on-Trent Central1,0481,245991732500162,606
 Total58,195 13,18617,0826811,6073780021133,145

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,171Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove9381,3033801300002,409
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,098Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,3231,4671060470002,943
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,066Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,00671047070001,770
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,898Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove682787195090001,673
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend17Stoke-on-Trent Central350010009
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,480Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove3,0812,271840360005,472
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park40Stoke-on-Trent Central101110000022
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,059Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove8731,427290140002,343
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,679Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,1131,526130510002,703
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,100Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0471,1622801310002,368
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,577Stoke-on-Trent Central20360755046000911
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,400Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,2441,241250300002,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,318Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,1471,310230130002,493
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,624Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove2,1692,132870140004,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,709Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0871,541670240002,719
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,525Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove9971,500200960002,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,151Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove924837440150001,820
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,455Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0631,435530210002,572
 Total72,367 18,91021,272915068500041,782

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,096Stoke-on-Trent North9381,3033801300002,409
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove4,811Stoke-on-Trent North1,3231,4671060470002,943
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,679Staffordshire Moorlands1,1137912904303202,008
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,065Stoke-on-Trent North1,00671047070001,770
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,974Stoke-on-Trent North682787195090001,673
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,392Stoke-on-Trent Central1,0477502222100031,854
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,979Stoke-on-Trent North3,0822,2056664280075,452
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath3,906Stoke-on-Trent North8731,427290140002,343
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,009Stoke-on-Trent North1,1131,526130510002,703
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,054Stoke-on-Trent North1,0471,1622801310002,368
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,501Stoke-on-Trent North1,2441,241250300002,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,314Stoke-on-Trent North1,1471,310230130002,493
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,982Stoke-on-Trent North2,1692,132870140004,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,333Stoke-on-Trent North1,0871,541670240002,719
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft3,779Stoke-on-Trent North9971,500200960002,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green768Stoke-on-Trent Central225199933001440
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,168Stoke-on-Trent North9278223813130021,815
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall3,915Stoke-on-Trent North1,0631,435530210002,572
 Total75,725 21,08322,3088951026840321345,117

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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