Stoke-on-Trent South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent South: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 76,296
Turnout: 61.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,26949.9%
CON20,41943.8%
UKIP1,0332.2%
LIB1,0072.2%
Green7511.6%
OTH1330.3%
LAB Majority2,8506.1%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Stoke-on-Trent South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent South constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position2° Left2° Right
National Position16° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %69%59%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education30%35%39%
Good Job36%48%51%
High SEC33%46%51%
Average Age46.148.748.5
ABC1 Class38%49%53%

Stoke-on-Trent South ranks #23 for "Leave", #369 for "Right" and #24 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stoke-on-Trent South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Stoke-on-Trent South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend6,794Stoke-on-Trent North1,4372,033123135400213,870
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,222Stoke-on-Trent North1,048684486200101,834
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley7,547Stoke-on-Trent South1,4432,39034221200284,298
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park7,527Stoke-on-Trent North2,0951,99174821000354,287
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,356Stoke-on-Trent South9371,249921355200152,480
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,149Stoke-on-Trent South7599361071100171,794
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,154Stoke-on-Trent North4601,1745177260091,797
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant0Stoke-on-Trent South000000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham3Staffordshire West100000001
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,494Stoke-on-Trent South7361,61612327100122,560
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,559Stoke-on-Trent South1,1561,21072885700142,597
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,534Stoke-on-Trent South6501,178401033100112,013
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,516Stoke-on-Trent South1,1881,19298393600202,573
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green764Stoke-on-Trent North2281843161003435
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,576Stoke-on-Trent South1,0481,245991732500162,606
 Total58,195 13,18617,0826811,6073780021133,145

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton East3,996Staffordshire West1,2541,204330310002,522
Stoke-on-TrentBlurton West and Newstead4,459Staffordshire West1,1301,619330320002,814
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East3,908Stoke-on-Trent South1,1821,240260180002,466
Stoke-on-TrentDresden and Florence3,841Staffordshire West1,1581,197510180002,424
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,535Stoke-on-Trent South1,2811,473630460002,863
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant4,347Stoke-on-Trent South1,2051,400910490002,745
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham8,740Staffordshire West3,2871,9761780770005,518
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton20Stoke-on-Trent South3810100013
Stoke-on-TrentHollybush and Longton West4,312Staffordshire West1,1201,540430190002,722
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot3,991Stoke-on-Trent South1,4051,072270150002,519
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay3,934Stoke-on-Trent South1,2661,172220240002,484
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North4,451Stoke-on-Trent South1,1921,532580280002,810
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park3,567Stoke-on-Trent South1,57563036090002,250
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South4,160Stoke-on-Trent South1,1961,357460270002,626
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,364Stoke-on-Trent South1,1511,509400550002,755
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney3,422Stoke-on-Trent South1,0468606001940002,160
 Total66,047 20,45119,789808064300041,691

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent South

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley7,346Stoke-on-Trent Central1,4432,39034221200284,298
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,338Stoke-on-Trent Central9371,249921355200152,480
Stoke-on-TrentBroadway and Longton East4,002Stoke-on-Trent South1,1821,240260180002,466
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,675Stoke-on-Trent Central7599361071100171,794
Stoke-on-TrentFenton East4,307Stoke-on-Trent South1,2811,473630460002,863
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant4,073Stoke-on-Trent South1,2051,400910490002,745
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant0Stoke-on-Trent Central000000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2,496Stoke-on-Trent Central7361,61712327200122,562
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton11Stoke-on-Trent South3710000011
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,582Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1561,21072885700142,597
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,759Stoke-on-Trent Central6501,178401033100112,013
Stoke-on-TrentLightwood North and Normacot3,766Stoke-on-Trent South1,4051,072270150002,519
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Hay4,023Stoke-on-Trent South1,2661,172220240002,484
Stoke-on-TrentMeir North4,507Stoke-on-Trent South1,1921,532580280002,810
Stoke-on-TrentMeir Park3,886Stoke-on-Trent South1,57563036090002,250
Stoke-on-TrentMeir South3,826Stoke-on-Trent South1,1961,357460270002,626
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,682Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1881,19298393600202,573
Stoke-on-TrentSandford Hill4,405Stoke-on-Trent South1,1511,509400550002,755
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,688Stoke-on-Trent Central1,0481,245991732500162,606
Stoke-on-TrentWeston Coyney3,924Stoke-on-Trent South1,0468606001940002,160
 Total76,296 20,41923,2691,0071,0337510013346,612

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)