Strangford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Strangford: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,425
Turnout: 59.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP26,40959.4%
MIN6,84815.4%
UUP4,61610.4%
SDLP3,7048.3%
SF1,7113.8%
Green6541.5%
OTH5471.2%
DUP Majority19,56144.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Strangford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Strangford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast East5550261106526230691,810
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South West725827720270342688212,747
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South West1149321,23604315471,101344,395
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast East5328822901331270902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South West5349260106425730091,776
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East64346276015376901,086
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South West55509621067266310101,838
BelfastMerok0Belfast East000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South West60548670071286334101,979
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast East675427180251318641202,557
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast East1126024810266541601,891
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast East1317075620317671812,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South West836819020313399803253,206
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South West56513627067268312101,853
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South West1108971,19004155271,060334,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast East1417606060338262012,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Down West50397530018122334101,461
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Strangford4233644801510328391,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Strangford393134170149626381,150
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Down West46368490017113310101,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Strangford4334345901610628991,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Down West4334245601610628891,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Down West383024010149225381,108
 Total66,106 1,52711,30213,30302,2427,1457,94524643,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East0046073614121
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0053404318581351,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North00728013225948571,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North00562010219732441,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0072305924787481,641
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North00618011121802491,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North00557010019725441,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North02958808517670411,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Strangford03728100331097467
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North00610011021794481,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North030619020019560341,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North030628020319568341,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0071405824777471,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0062505121682411,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North00703012624914551,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North029598019318541331,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Down North036736023823666401,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03368509819781471,663
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Strangford05138600451509641
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Down North039805026125730441,904
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02755908116638391,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North02959408517677411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0073405924800481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03062309018709431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0068705523747451,557
 Total64,334 040014,94302,54753516,14997735,551

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down West629119700154160520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down West43322560098350464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South8011825300197200668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South266393844006596702,229
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh254130076160161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South95515426008612701,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South52457396007327301,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South54474412007607501,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South94509422008512601,902
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South51823141007596901,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South62545474008738602,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South32990137006548901,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Strangford6117632000189570803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh51263100177370376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Strangford21611110065200278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South58926161008547702,076
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South89482400008072501,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South57507441008138101,899
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South59525456008418301,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South631,015174009368502,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South90487404008152501,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South361,1061530073210002,127
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South321,004138006659101,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South109592491009913002,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South56901156008327502,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South92497412008332601,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South29902125005978201,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South60968167008938102,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh61694200238500505
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South30930128006148401,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South92499412008342601,863
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South631,005173009268302,250
 Total75,686 2,00117,8798,8660020,3261,817050,889

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Strangford16411180423414247
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Down West717520210182108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Strangford6308110940209191,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Strangford289254939024138174151,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Strangford17915758201585108101,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Strangford237207768020113142131,500
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Strangford264231857022126159141,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Strangford270237879023129162141,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Strangford23501,2100290274241,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Strangford1882621,20001896108101,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Strangford123172793012637261,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Strangford21601,1070260250221,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Strangford20501,0490250237211,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Strangford21001,0770260243221,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Strangford16401,1330280426381,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Strangford17601,2190300457411,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Strangford16401,1360280427381,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Strangford13509370230352311,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Strangford19509970240225201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Strangford1802511,1540179110491,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Strangford841185420843484847
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Strangford16901,1660280438391,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Strangford1602221,020015819281,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Strangford1682351,076016869791,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Strangford14801,0270250385341,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Strangford17201,1900290447401,878
 Total64,330 4,4172,40424,03906111,0845,69550738,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Strangford

The new seat of Strangford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Strangford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill2,396Belfast South4233644801510328391,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East478Strangford11681020323582267
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East2,019Belfast South4428643301596246101,130
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,315Belfast South4334345901610628991,265
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,115Strangford6308110940209191,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch2,870Strangford289254939024138174151,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,111Down South9312934906106644751
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,760Strangford1472045530916810161,188
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,495Strangford222230755017153139111,527
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy411Down South36381240325232251
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,803Strangford264231857022126159141,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,991Strangford270237879023129162141,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,048Strangford23501,2100290274241,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,145Strangford1882621,20001896108101,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Strangford87149764096812991,215
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore838Down North36603100328524493
North Down and ArdsComber North2,724Strangford21601,1070260250221,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,736Strangford20501,0490250237211,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,668Strangford21001,0770260243221,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,872Strangford16401,1330280426381,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,182Strangford17601,2190300457411,923
North Down and ArdsGlen3,041Strangford16401,1360280427381,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,524Strangford13509370230352311,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,577Strangford19509970240225201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin2,905Strangford1802511,1540179110491,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,546Strangford469351104481097818
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,264Down North38764170440896670
North Down and ArdsMovilla2,536Strangford16901,1660280438391,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,546Strangford1602221,020015819281,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,556Strangford1682351,076016869791,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo3,063Strangford14801,0270250385341,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds2,829Strangford17201,1900290447401,878
 Total74,425 4,6163,70426,40906541,7116,84854744,489

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Strangford.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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