Stretford and Urmston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stretford and Urmston: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Kate Green  (LAB)
County/Area: Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 76,104
Turnout: 74.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB35,08362.0%
CON17,94631.7%
LIB1,5762.8%
UKIP9271.6%
Green8551.5%
OTH1820.3%
LAB Majority17,13730.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Stretford and Urmston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stretford and Urmston constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left6° Left
National Position5° Int2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%54%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health42%46%48%
UK Born91%92%88%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job36%49%51%
High SEC33%48%51%
Average Age46.148.648.5
ABC1 Class38%50%53%

Stretford and Urmston ranks #463 for "Leave", #465 for "Right" and #438 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stretford and Urmston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stretford and Urmston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Stretford and Urmston

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Altrincham and Sale West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Altrincham and Sale West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Altrincham and Sale WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TraffordAltrincham8,669Altrincham and Knutsford2,9562,506530021400436,249
TraffordAshton upon Mersey7,230Stretford and Urmston2,4192,264335015700365,211
TraffordBowdon7,142Altrincham and Knutsford3,3751,43725006600215,149
TraffordBroadheath9,638Altrincham and Knutsford3,1063,190489013000346,949
TraffordHale Barns7,365Altrincham and Knutsford3,4001,54030005200185,310
TraffordHale Central7,671Altrincham and Knutsford3,1511,841407010300295,531
TraffordSt Mary's9,054Stretford and Urmston3,0873,02529009200346,528
TraffordTimperley8,319Altrincham and Knutsford2,8542,164825011000455,998
TraffordVillage8,131Altrincham and Knutsford2,5842,54162507500385,863
 Total73,219 26,93220,5084,05109990029852,788

The full details of these calculations are given on the Altrincham and Sale West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stretford and Urmston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stretford and Urmston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stretford and UrmstonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TraffordBucklow-St Martins7,673Altrincham and Knutsford1,3743,726501663400105,360
TraffordClifford8,463Stretford and Urmston5445,14236016900205,911
TraffordDavyhulme East7,372Stretford and Urmston1,9182,730124350200095,151
TraffordDavyhulme West7,060Stretford and Urmston2,0842,6427797250074,932
TraffordFlixton7,745Stretford and Urmston2,2152,911170584400135,411
TraffordGorse Hill8,592Stretford and Urmston1,2884,50388446400166,003
TraffordLongford9,043Stretford and Urmston1,2364,85390311900176,318
TraffordStretford7,917Stretford and Urmston1,2263,9721932410100165,532
TraffordUrmston7,976Stretford and Urmston1,9293,0411733516400145,572
 Total71,841 13,81433,5201,0011,0936400012250,190

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stretford and Urmston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stretford and Urmston

The new seat of Stretford and Urmston is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stretford and Urmston
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TraffordAshton upon Mersey7,140Altrincham and Sale West2,4192,264335015700365,211
TraffordClifford7,004Stretford and Urmston5445,14236016900205,911
TraffordDavyhulme East7,358Stretford and Urmston1,9182,730124350200095,151
TraffordDavyhulme West7,413Stretford and Urmston2,0842,6427797250074,932
TraffordFlixton8,051Stretford and Urmston2,2152,911170584400135,411
TraffordGorse Hill7,454Stretford and Urmston1,2884,50388446400166,003
TraffordLongford8,217Stretford and Urmston1,2364,85390311900176,318
TraffordSt Mary's8,060Altrincham and Sale West3,0873,02529009200346,528
TraffordStretford7,300Stretford and Urmston1,2263,9721932410100165,532
TraffordUrmston8,107Stretford and Urmston1,9293,0411733516400145,572
 Total76,104 17,94635,0831,5769278550018256,569

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stretford and Urmston.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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