Suffolk Coastal: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Suffolk Coastal: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Therese Coffey  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,178
Turnout: 76.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,89958.0%
LAB17,80630.5%
LIB4,0757.0%
Green1,8153.1%
OTH8061.4%
UKIP90.0%
CON Majority16,09327.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Suffolk Coastal : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Suffolk Coastal constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%57%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born87%89%88%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job55%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age48.349.448.5
ABC1 Class57%55%53%

Suffolk Coastal ranks #244 for "Leave", #159 for "Right" and #150 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk Coastal: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Suffolk Coastal been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Suffolk Coastal

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill5,846Ipswich2,1741,621140223730004,231
IpswichWhitehouse7,009Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,0672,426112383840005,072
IpswichWhitton6,392Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,0862,219157134300004,626
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,705Suffolk Central and Ipswich North7633337844160001,234
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,123Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,341565191147160002,260
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,700Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,71570815046590002,678
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,870Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8173616350620001,353
Mid SuffolkEye1,701Suffolk Central and Ipswich North54148242331330001,231
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,807Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8742718231490001,307
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,830Suffolk Central and Ipswich North9461921364460001,324
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,622Suffolk Central and Ipswich North803297404300001,174
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,783Suffolk Central and Ipswich North77532220111630001,291
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,826Suffolk Central and Ipswich North973229739740001,322
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,017Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,0562007935910001,461
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,845Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8932667213910001,335
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett1,993Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,00426716251300001,442
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,912Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,172135279400001,383
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,462Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,123717941171770003,228
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,423Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,286362445560001,753
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,605Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,2274541813190001,884
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,255Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,084384645940001,631
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,730Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,5551,24130910320004,147
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,583Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,5191,27574149220004,039
Suffolk CoastalTower4,079Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,96186610013120002,952
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,120Suffolk Central and Ipswich North86842910995340001,535
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge878Suffolk Coastal36918545928000636
 Total78,116 33,99216,8072,4321,6371,66100056,529

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Coastal, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk CoastalTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh4,041Suffolk Coastal1,85865531303800922,956
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,410Suffolk Coastal98448123504800151,763
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East3,923Suffolk Coastal1,84287511003000132,870
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,837Suffolk Coastal1,8291,42921704200223,539
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,911Suffolk Coastal2,0631,215162012400283,592
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West5,335Suffolk Coastal1,9511,72717003500193,902
Suffolk CoastalHacheston243Suffolk Central and Ipswich North115419012001178
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,302Suffolk Coastal1,1843633209200141,685
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,918Suffolk Coastal1,6061,4432800106001623,597
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,928Suffolk Coastal1,70771140403400182,874
Suffolk CoastalMelton5,134Suffolk Coastal2,284869375019000373,755
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,449Suffolk Coastal1,2984175201500101,792
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,370Suffolk Coastal1,10639113708700121,733
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,251Suffolk Coastal1,04935797013200121,647
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,413Suffolk Coastal1,0956013702300111,767
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,237Suffolk Coastal1,765755382081001173,100
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,497Suffolk Coastal1,9511,14114302900243,288
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,241Suffolk Coastal91643821306100131,641
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market155Suffolk Central and Ipswich North6535902001112
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,509Suffolk Coastal2,7131,412366023700354,763
WaveneyBlything1,726Suffolk Coastal7393855307200141,263
WaveneyHalesworth3,799Suffolk Coastal1,4919401160129001042,780
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,949Suffolk Coastal1,266613123013300222,157
WaveneyWrentham1,790Suffolk Coastal8334031304900121,310
 Total79,368 33,71017,6974,04801,8010080858,064

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Coastal seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Suffolk Coastal

The new seat of Suffolk Coastal is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Suffolk Coastal
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh3,944Suffolk Coastal1,85865531303800922,956
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,048Suffolk Coastal98448123504800151,763
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East4,014Suffolk Coastal1,84287511003000132,870
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,433Suffolk Coastal1,8291,42921704200223,539
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,611Suffolk Coastal2,0631,215162012400283,592
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West4,555Suffolk Coastal1,9511,72717003500193,902
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,353Suffolk Coastal1,1843633209200141,685
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,469Suffolk Coastal1,6061,4432800106001623,597
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,968Suffolk Coastal1,70771140403400182,874
Suffolk CoastalMelton4,637Suffolk Coastal2,284869375019000373,755
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,347Suffolk Coastal1,2984175201500101,792
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,278Suffolk Coastal1,10639113708700121,733
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,277Suffolk Coastal1,04935797013200121,647
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,123Suffolk Coastal1,0956013702300111,767
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,145Suffolk Coastal1,765755382081001173,100
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,243Suffolk Coastal1,9511,14114302900243,288
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,177Suffolk Coastal91643821306100131,641
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge854Suffolk Central and Ipswich North36619049131004641
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,333Suffolk Coastal2,7161,407362823400314,758
WaveneyBlything1,710Suffolk Coastal7393855307200141,263
WaveneyHalesworth3,958Suffolk Coastal1,4919401160129001042,780
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,890Suffolk Coastal1,266613123013300222,157
WaveneyWrentham1,811Suffolk Coastal8334031304900121,310
 Total76,178 33,89917,8064,07591,8150080658,410

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Suffolk Coastal.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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