Suffolk South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Suffolk South: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: James Cartlidge  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,445
Turnout: 75.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,83260.5%
LAB15,07827.8%
LIB3,1525.8%
Green1,7243.2%
UKIP1,4492.7%
CON Majority17,75432.7%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Suffolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Suffolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%57%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job53%53%51%
High SEC56%53%51%
Average Age49.749.448.5
ABC1 Class57%55%53%

Suffolk South ranks #274 for "Leave", #137 for "Right" and #154 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Suffolk South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Suffolk South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Suffolk South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,243Suffolk South1,26475717374460002,314
BaberghBerners3,238Suffolk South1,29963426723900002,313
BaberghBoxford1,796Suffolk South7373201767430001,283
BaberghBrett Vale1,807Suffolk South870320253720001,290
BaberghBrook3,320Suffolk South1,6775803422570002,370
BaberghBures St Mary1,389Suffolk South68922717553000991
BaberghChadacre1,687Suffolk South697411413530001,205
BaberghDodnash2,934Suffolk South1,374409140103690002,095
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead3,077Suffolk South1,39557912625720002,197
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,681Suffolk South1,388898139114890002,628
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,726Suffolk South1,47098110440640002,659
BaberghHadleigh North3,754Suffolk South1,654665178122610002,680
BaberghHadleigh South3,082Suffolk South1,34662715122540002,200
BaberghHolbrook2,044Suffolk South832484577790001,459
BaberghLavenham1,427Suffolk South648250707440001,019
BaberghLeavenheath1,469Suffolk South7991762324260001,048
BaberghLong Melford3,135Suffolk South1,43359235105740002,239
BaberghLower Brett1,782Suffolk South8812552280350001,273
BaberghMid Samford3,264Suffolk South1,32148846213460002,330
BaberghNayland1,529Suffolk South7542362153280001,092
BaberghNorth Cosford1,788Suffolk South8053593417600001,275
BaberghPinewood3,562Suffolk South1,26395626310510002,543
BaberghSouth Cosford1,810Suffolk South88327919101010001,292
BaberghSudbury East3,556Suffolk South1,31390616282770002,540
BaberghSudbury North3,649Suffolk South1,383928167181090002,605
BaberghSudbury South3,601Suffolk South1,297934135116900002,572
BaberghWaldingfield3,280Suffolk South1,60645373162470002,341
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,643Suffolk South8671722696120001,173
St EdmundsburyClare1,693Suffolk South8872021286220001,209
 Total75,966 32,83215,0783,1521,4491,72400054,235

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Suffolk South

The new seat of Suffolk South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Suffolk South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,125Suffolk South1,26475717374460002,314
BaberghBerners3,029Suffolk South1,29963426723900002,313
BaberghBoxford1,739Suffolk South7373201767430001,283
BaberghBrett Vale1,634Suffolk South870320253720001,290
BaberghBrook3,230Suffolk South1,6775803422570002,370
BaberghBures St Mary1,426Suffolk South68922717553000991
BaberghChadacre1,657Suffolk South697411413530001,205
BaberghDodnash2,844Suffolk South1,374409140103690002,095
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead2,983Suffolk South1,39557912625720002,197
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,273Suffolk South1,388898139114890002,628
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,428Suffolk South1,47098110440640002,659
BaberghHadleigh North3,503Suffolk South1,654665178122610002,680
BaberghHadleigh South2,910Suffolk South1,34662715122540002,200
BaberghHolbrook1,546Suffolk South832484577790001,459
BaberghLavenham1,406Suffolk South648250707440001,019
BaberghLeavenheath1,429Suffolk South7991762324260001,048
BaberghLong Melford3,001Suffolk South1,43359235105740002,239
BaberghLower Brett1,713Suffolk South8812552280350001,273
BaberghMid Samford3,234Suffolk South1,32148846213460002,330
BaberghNayland1,442Suffolk South7542362153280001,092
BaberghNorth Cosford1,785Suffolk South8053593417600001,275
BaberghPinewood3,135Suffolk South1,26395626310510002,543
BaberghSouth Cosford1,756Suffolk South88327919101010001,292
BaberghSudbury East3,130Suffolk South1,31390616282770002,540
BaberghSudbury North3,312Suffolk South1,383928167181090002,605
BaberghSudbury South3,219Suffolk South1,297934135116900002,572
BaberghWaldingfield3,317Suffolk South1,60645373162470002,341
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,582Suffolk South8671722696120001,173
St EdmundsburyClare1,657Suffolk South8872021286220001,209
 Total71,445 32,83215,0783,1521,4491,72400054,235

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Suffolk South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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