Suffolk West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Suffolk West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Matt Hancock  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,809
Turnout: 71.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,65061.2%
LAB14,58728.2%
UKIP2,3934.6%
LIB2,1824.2%
Green9351.8%
CON Majority17,06333.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Suffolk West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Suffolk West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position18° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %64%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age52.049.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Suffolk West ranks #71 for "Leave", #40 for "Right" and #15 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Suffolk West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Suffolk West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Suffolk West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,523Suffolk West1,095511394470001,696
Forest HeathBrandon East4,006Suffolk West1,403853137266340002,693
Forest HeathBrandon West2,540Suffolk West1,0165337043450001,707
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows5,851Suffolk West2,4089272991701300003,934
Forest HeathExning1,330Suffolk West53728533633000894
Forest HeathGreat Heath2,950Suffolk West1,09360476167430001,983
Forest HeathIceni1,248Suffolk West593174183914000838
Forest HeathLakenheath3,172Suffolk West1,25155795196340002,133
Forest HeathManor1,300Suffolk West507118225186000874
Forest HeathMarket2,948Suffolk West1,26445113493390001,981
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,791Suffolk West1,080501111146370001,875
Forest HeathSeverals4,770Suffolk West2,0001,0288716750003,206
Forest HeathSouth1,134Suffolk West58113916224000762
Forest HeathSt Mary's3,977Suffolk West1,49496133114700002,672
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,763Suffolk West8082783145240001,186
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,799Suffolk West1,07294112390001,209
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,572Suffolk West692166183970001,057
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,420Suffolk West86479445000956
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,251Suffolk West1,6541,50378256380003,529
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,248Suffolk West1,7321,415103232460003,528
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South3,992Suffolk West1,1671,198108187250002,685
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West3,855Suffolk West1,50187663126250002,591
St EdmundsburyHundon2,050Suffolk West94027529104290001,377
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,609Suffolk West95010581270001,082
St EdmundsburyKedington1,367Suffolk West565268294214000918
St EdmundsburyRisby1,806Suffolk West1,0321134019110001,215
St EdmundsburyStanton1,699Suffolk West9721003912190001,142
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,479Suffolk West664243471326000993
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,535Suffolk West7152323629190001,031
 Total76,985 31,65014,5872,1822,39393500051,747

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Suffolk West

The new seat of Suffolk West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Suffolk West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,398Suffolk West1,095511394470001,696
Forest HeathBrandon East3,701Suffolk West1,403853137266340002,693
Forest HeathBrandon West2,475Suffolk West1,0165337043450001,707
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows3,173Suffolk West2,4089272991701300003,934
Forest HeathExning1,430Suffolk West53728533633000894
Forest HeathGreat Heath2,595Suffolk West1,09360476167430001,983
Forest HeathIceni1,297Suffolk West593174183914000838
Forest HeathLakenheath3,066Suffolk West1,25155795196340002,133
Forest HeathManor1,267Suffolk West507118225186000874
Forest HeathMarket2,632Suffolk West1,26445113493390001,981
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,761Suffolk West1,080501111146370001,875
Forest HeathSeverals4,219Suffolk West2,0001,0288716750003,206
Forest HeathSouth1,363Suffolk West58113916224000762
Forest HeathSt Mary's3,680Suffolk West1,49496133114700002,672
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,941Suffolk West8082783145240001,186
St EdmundsburyBarningham2,089Suffolk West1,07294112390001,209
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,795Suffolk West692166183970001,057
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,670Suffolk West86479445000956
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East4,954Suffolk West1,6541,50378256380003,529
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,192Suffolk West1,7321,415103232460003,528
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South3,439Suffolk West1,1671,198108187250002,685
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West3,675Suffolk West1,50187663126250002,591
St EdmundsburyHundon1,669Suffolk West94027529104290001,377
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,700Suffolk West95010581270001,082
St EdmundsburyKedington1,526Suffolk West565268294214000918
St EdmundsburyRisby1,875Suffolk West1,0321134019110001,215
St EdmundsburyStanton1,991Suffolk West9721003912190001,142
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,680Suffolk West664243471326000993
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,556Suffolk West7152323629190001,031
 Total72,809 31,65014,5872,1822,39393500051,747

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Suffolk West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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