Surrey South West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Surrey South West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 74,494
Turnout: 81.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,68355.7%
MIN12,09120.0%
LAB7,60412.6%
LIB5,9669.9%
UKIP1,0801.8%
CON Majority21,59235.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Surrey South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Surrey South West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position3° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %40%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education53%43%39%
Good Job66%56%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age51.249.248.5
ABC1 Class71%60%53%

Surrey South West ranks #507 for "Leave", #215 for "Right" and #425 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Surrey South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Surrey South West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Surrey South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Surrey South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Surrey South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,524Surrey South West1,926311107260035902,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold3,013Surrey South West1,512304681000035002,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley2,908Surrey South West1,446102118320055302,251
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,129Surrey South West1,86310610780034002,424
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,176Surrey South West1,06339435530064502,460
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,310Surrey South West1,24845537850047702,563
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,365Surrey South West1,358354299250056902,605
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,803Surrey South West1,505374323140072802,944
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,165Surrey South West1,198275103310084402,451
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,221Surrey South West1,103287163350090502,493
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,251Surrey South West1,2063464141650038402,515
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,519Surrey South West1,566324141850060802,724
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,065Surrey South West1,7991438790033602,374
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,096Surrey South West1,134505394660030002,399
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,558Surrey South West1,308617149950058602,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse3,081Surrey South West1,32239518510048102,384
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,463Surrey South West1,199529500210043202,681
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,260Surrey South West1,63335321400032402,524
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,517Surrey South West1,787411832370043003,497
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,993Surrey South West2,2913423351080079103,867
WaverleyHindhead3,222Surrey South West1,427188383240047302,495
WaverleyMilford3,157Surrey South West1,2882261841030064402,445
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,243Surrey South West1,501263127870053202,510
 Total78,039 33,6837,6045,9661,0800012,091060,424

The full details of these calculations are given on the Surrey South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Surrey South West

The new seat of Surrey South West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Surrey South West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,333Surrey South West1,926311107260035902,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold2,929Surrey South West1,512304681000035002,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley3,002Surrey South West1,446102118320055302,251
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,103Surrey South West1,86310610780034002,424
WaverleyFarnham Castle2,939Surrey South West1,06339435530064502,460
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,036Surrey South West1,24845537850047702,563
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,165Surrey South West1,358354299250056902,605
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,505Surrey South West1,505374323140072802,944
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,107Surrey South West1,198275103310084402,451
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,052Surrey South West1,103287163350090502,493
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,242Surrey South West1,2063464141650038402,515
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,271Surrey South West1,566324141850060802,724
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,045Surrey South West1,7991438790033602,374
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,001Surrey South West1,134505394660030002,399
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,219Surrey South West1,308617149950058602,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse2,642Surrey South West1,32239518510048102,384
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,497Surrey South West1,199529500210043202,681
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,196Surrey South West1,63335321400032402,524
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,313Surrey South West1,787411832370043003,497
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,897Surrey South West2,2913423351080079103,867
WaverleyHindhead3,108Surrey South West1,427188383240047302,495
WaverleyMilford3,007Surrey South West1,2882261841030064402,445
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon2,885Surrey South West1,501263127870053202,510
 Total74,494 33,6837,6045,9661,0800012,091060,424

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Surrey South West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)