Swansea East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Swansea East: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Carolyn Harris  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 71,637
Turnout: 68.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB30,37462.2%
CON14,18529.0%
Plaid2,1914.5%
UKIP1,1162.3%
LIB4821.0%
Green4250.9%
OTH650.1%
LAB Majority16,18933.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Swansea East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Swansea East constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position12° Left10° Left
National Position2° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity32%26%29%
Good Health54%47%48%
UK Born89%95%88%
Good Education53%36%39%
Good Job66%46%51%
High SEC69%46%51%
Average Age51.249.648.5
ABC1 Class71%47%53%

Swansea East ranks #223 for "Leave", #512 for "Right" and #405 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Swansea East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Swansea East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Swansea East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gower

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gower, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GowerTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaBishopston2,645Gower and Swansea West1,273611192504071,939
SwanseaClydach5,986Swansea East1,5492,559110201540244,389
SwanseaFairwood2,324Gower and Swansea West998578981806051,703
SwanseaGorseinon3,331Llanelli6611,3967470323092,443
SwanseaGower2,961Gower and Swansea West1,2096722651805032,172
SwanseaGowerton4,156Gower and Swansea West1,3711,55230330510103,047
SwanseaKingsbridge3,188Llanelli6631,5391956051082,336
SwanseaLlangyfelach4,042Swansea East1,5291,34413470150152,963
SwanseaLower Loughor1,901Llanelli2949374437081011,394
SwanseaMawr1,454Swansea East4034900240146031,066
SwanseaNewton2,632Gower and Swansea West1,2585101461301011,929
SwanseaOystermouth3,326Gower and Swansea West1,408932741305062,438
SwanseaPenclawdd2,894Gower and Swansea West7961,2183418047092,122
SwanseaPenllergaer2,302Swansea East899712345020081,687
SwanseaPennard2,094Gower and Swansea West9764204819067051,535
SwanseaPenyrheol4,599Llanelli7212,2568260357043,372
SwanseaPontardulais5,012Llanelli1,4421,97165401850173,675
SwanseaUpper Loughor2,130Llanelli39892866270140031,562
SwanseaWest Cross5,187Gower and Swansea West1,6102,10248210100113,802
 Total62,164 19,45822,72792964301,668014945,574

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gower seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Swansea East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Swansea East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Swansea EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaBonymaen4,980Swansea East8161,826216617166002,993
SwanseaClydach101 213103050060
SwanseaCockett573 8619013834500345
SwanseaCwmbwrla5,676Gower and Swansea West9871,80024813528213003,411
SwanseaLandore4,466Swansea East6981,662957313141002,682
SwanseaLlangyfelach92 272112130055
SwanseaLlansamlet10,471Swansea East1,7074,0449216333251006,290
SwanseaMorriston12,163Swansea East2,0174,59214113013414007,307
SwanseaMynyddbach6,421Swansea East1,2322,2871913618166003,858
SwanseaPenderry8,361Swansea East7143,8408134196131005,023
SwanseaSt Thomas5,216Swansea East8342,01469137153003,135
 Total58,520 9,13922,3076251,0413591,6880035,159

The full details of these calculations are given on the Swansea East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Swansea West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Swansea West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Swansea WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaCastle11,051Swansea East1,7204,890990974220157,243
SwanseaCockett9,351Gower and Swansea West1,4293,972102016110136,128
SwanseaDunvant3,125Gower and Swansea West8471,0657501390202,047
SwanseaKillay North2,443Gower and Swansea West792654140092021,599
SwanseaKillay South1,561Gower and Swansea West394564390024031,024
SwanseaLandore132 196220040087
SwanseaMayals1,872Gower and Swansea West72143063004091,227
SwanseaSketty10,079Gower and Swansea West2,9423,099319022330106,605
SwanseaTownhill6,154Gower and Swansea West5863,29334031030144,033
SwanseaUplands11,124Gower and Swansea West2,2304,248396032088077,289
 Total56,892 11,68022,2771,26904331,53009337,282

The full details of these calculations are given on the Swansea West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Swansea East

The new seat of Swansea East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Swansea East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaBonymaen4,697Swansea East8161,826216617166002,993
SwanseaCastle8,834Swansea West1,7204,890990974220157,243
SwanseaClydach5,525Gower1,5702,590110501590244,449
SwanseaLandore4,472Swansea East7171,724977313145002,769
SwanseaLlangyfelach3,803Gower1,5561,36514491180153,018
SwanseaLlansamlet10,408Swansea East1,7074,0449216333251006,290
SwanseaMawr1,305Gower4034900240146031,066
SwanseaMorriston11,532Swansea East2,0174,59214113013414007,307
SwanseaMynyddbach6,429Swansea East1,2322,2871913618166003,858
SwanseaPenderry7,146Swansea East7143,8408134196131005,023
SwanseaPenllergaer2,466Gower899712345020081,687
SwanseaSt Thomas5,020Swansea East8342,01469137153003,135
 Total71,637 14,18530,3744821,1164252,19106548,838

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Swansea East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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