Taunton Deane: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Taunton Deane: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Rebecca Pow  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 78,187
Turnout: 80.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,33352.9%
LIB17,44727.7%
LAB9,69115.4%
UKIP1,4372.3%
Green1,1501.8%
CON Majority15,88625.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Taunton Deane : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Taunton Deane constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education31%40%39%
Good Job43%50%51%
High SEC39%52%51%
Average Age47.250.548.5
ABC1 Class44%54%53%

Taunton Deane ranks #316 for "Leave", #252 for "Right" and #322 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Taunton Deane: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Taunton Deane been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Taunton Deane

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Taunton Deane

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Taunton Deane, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Taunton DeaneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull3,070Taunton Deane1,17545154667250002,264
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard4,935Taunton Deane2,186294888225490003,642
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,619Taunton Deane78310025618370001,194
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,806Taunton Deane8999229311380001,333
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,466Taunton Deane1,5963811,25433320003,296
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane1,702Taunton Deane81210226810640001,256
Taunton DeaneMonument1,598Taunton Deane8496922510250001,178
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,666Taunton Deane8691222166160001,229
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory2,496Taunton Deane1,13110155721320001,842
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren2,356Taunton Deane94920647481290001,739
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,104Taunton Deane1,32923067927250002,290
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove3,085Taunton Deane1,28925267217460002,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway4,932Taunton Deane1,5838251,11375440003,640
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,629Taunton Deane1,12857086928830002,678
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,909Taunton Deane1,5857081,194301030003,620
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon5,098Taunton Deane1,6475841,37989630003,762
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,989Taunton Deane1,28230657315300002,206
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,205Taunton Deane1,224875736235320003,102
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton4,069Taunton Deane1,6792581,00724340003,002
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,929Taunton Deane1,5908511,035119420003,637
Taunton DeaneTrull1,627Taunton Deane7861192738150001,201
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,912Taunton Deane1,10530265538480002,148
Taunton DeaneWellington North3,047Taunton Deane94777541361510002,247
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,861Taunton Deane2,13345487859630003,587
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,335Taunton Deane1,55428752756370002,461
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane3,021Taunton Deane1,22337746774870002,228
 Total85,466 33,3339,69117,4471,4371,15000063,058

The full details of these calculations are given on the Taunton Deane seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Taunton Deane

The new seat of Taunton Deane is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Taunton Deane
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull3,142Taunton Deane1,17545154667250002,264
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard4,505Taunton Deane2,186294888225490003,642
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,747Taunton Deane78310025618370001,194
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,819Taunton Deane8999229311380001,333
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,180Taunton Deane1,5963811,25433320003,296
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane1,635Taunton Deane81210226810640001,256
Taunton DeaneMonument1,695Taunton Deane8496922510250001,178
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,779Taunton Deane8691222166160001,229
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory2,411Taunton Deane1,13110155721320001,842
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren2,061Taunton Deane94920647481290001,739
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,169Taunton Deane1,32923067927250002,290
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove2,960Taunton Deane1,28925267217460002,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway4,185Taunton Deane1,5838251,11375440003,640
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate2,503Taunton Deane1,12857086928830002,678
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater3,952Taunton Deane1,5857081,194301030003,620
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon3,745Taunton Deane1,6475841,37989630003,762
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,854Taunton Deane1,28230657315300002,206
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford3,650Taunton Deane1,224875736235320003,102
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton3,933Taunton Deane1,6792581,00724340003,002
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,171Taunton Deane1,5908511,035119420003,637
Taunton DeaneTrull1,511Taunton Deane7861192738150001,201
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,894Taunton Deane1,10530265538480002,148
Taunton DeaneWellington North2,753Taunton Deane94777541361510002,247
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,473Taunton Deane2,13345487859630003,587
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,574Taunton Deane1,55428752756370002,461
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane2,886Taunton Deane1,22337746774870002,228
 Total78,187 33,3339,69117,4471,4371,15000063,058

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Taunton Deane.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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