Test Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Test Valley: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Caroline Nokes  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 75,481
Turnout: 73.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,85860.7%
LIB14,37025.7%
LAB6,41311.5%
UKIP5891.1%
Green3540.6%
OTH2270.4%
CON Majority19,48834.9%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Test Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Test Valley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position1° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born83%88%88%
Good Education36%43%39%
Good Job50%56%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age46.649.248.5
ABC1 Class53%60%53%

Test Valley ranks #423 for "Leave", #124 for "Right" and #344 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Test Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Test Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Test Valley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hampshire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBaughurst and Tadley North4,383Hampshire North West1,93267351425190003,163
Basingstoke and DeaneBurghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne4,713Hampshire North West2,5025722804430003,401
Basingstoke and DeaneEast Woodhay2,324Hampshire North West1,2303315335280001,677
Basingstoke and DeaneKingsclere4,003Hampshire North West1,9836052416540002,889
Basingstoke and DeaneOakley and North Waltham5,343Hampshire North West2,53589928767690003,857
Basingstoke and DeaneOverton, Laverstoke and Steventon3,973Hampshire North West1,4041,013315191160002,867
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John151Hampshire North West7823801000110
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley Central2,176Hampshire North West9174122062880001,571
Basingstoke and DeaneTadley South4,691Hampshire North West2,15381135733330003,387
Basingstoke and DeaneWhitchurch4,237Hampshire North West1,42575574182550003,058
Test ValleyAlamein7,315Hampshire North West2,6811,6865382081660005,279
Test ValleyAmport1,797Test Valley6365055781190001,298
Test ValleyAnna4,054Test Valley2,31529821043610002,927
Test ValleyBourne Valley1,714Hampshire North West88119511323250001,237
Test ValleyCharlton1,570Hampshire North West756235746070001,132
Test ValleyHarroway6,396Hampshire North West2,8821,0782351482740004,617
Test ValleyMillway6,003Hampshire North West2,811831406911930004,332
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger3,785Test Valley2,03238320990180002,732
Test ValleySt Mary's6,438Hampshire North West2,3201,4784852601040004,647
Test ValleyWinton6,366Hampshire North West2,9971,009382166410004,595
 Total81,432 36,47013,7925,7111,4691,33400058,776

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Romsey and Southampton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Romsey and Southampton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Romsey and Southampton NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SouthamptonBassett10,922Southampton Test4,2762,3541,212028300328,157
SouthamptonSwaythling10,402Southampton Test3,0533,1761,076042900357,769
Test ValleyAbbey3,523Test Valley1,4834546330540072,631
Test ValleyAmpfield and Braishfield1,678Test Valley862115266070021,252
Test ValleyBlackwater3,848Test Valley2,0372765090480032,873
Test ValleyBroughton and Stockbridge3,468Test Valley1,88620239201500952,590
Test ValleyChilworth, Nursling and Rownhams4,848New Forest East2,486484639040073,620
Test ValleyCupernham3,754Test Valley1,46038093102000122,803
Test ValleyDun Valley1,769Test Valley896121297050021,321
Test ValleyHarewood1,701Test Valley1,037125100050031,270
Test ValleyKings Somborne and Michelmersh1,984Test Valley1,074121273090051,482
Test ValleyNorth Baddesley5,217Test Valley2,0495351,2860800173,895
Test ValleyOver Wallop1,635Test Valley1,08133920400121,222
Test ValleyRomsey Extra2,598Test Valley1,17230639304100271,939
Test ValleyTadburn3,963Test Valley1,4674231,0470160062,959
Test ValleyValley Park5,875Test Valley2,3485101,517060064,387
 Total67,185 28,6679,61510,66309540027150,170

The full details of these calculations are given on the Romsey and Southampton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Winchester

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Winchester, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WinchesterTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,567Test Valley1,2783291,06813420022,813
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,476Test Valley1,6793551,39784200113,528
EastleighHiltingbury East3,801Test Valley1,8312448655130032,997
EastleighHiltingbury West4,085Test Valley1,9192271,0254420033,220
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,100Test Valley1,7213301,1204870073,233
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,091Test Valley1,5951416831420042,439
WinchesterItchen Valley1,413Winchester820592181520011,115
WinchesterKings Worthy3,252Winchester1,31018098731700482,563
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,650Winchester1,1371128023240032,090
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,015Winchester1,0042021,11527290012,378
WinchesterSparsholt1,442Winchester74645337700021,137
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,630Winchester1,9513621,23615810043,649
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,723Winchester1,7355321,28211710033,724
WinchesterSt John and All Saints4,666Winchester1,5028771,0598511900373,679
WinchesterSt Luke4,704Winchester1,3016921,583191080063,709
WinchesterSt Michael5,018Winchester2,1624441,185151490033,958
WinchesterSt Paul4,911Winchester1,7553791,586141350033,872
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,736Winchester2,1722921,21931170033,734
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,218Winchester2,1102069642980083,325
 Total72,498 29,7286,00819,7316968480015257,163

The full details of these calculations are given on the Winchester seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Test Valley

The new seat of Test Valley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Test Valley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,644Winchester1,2783291,06813420022,813
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,581Winchester1,6793551,39784200113,528
EastleighHiltingbury East4,021Winchester1,8312448655130032,997
EastleighHiltingbury West4,105Winchester1,9192271,0254420033,220
Test ValleyAbbey3,786Romsey and Southampton North1,4834546330540072,631
Test ValleyAmpfield and Braishfield1,803Romsey and Southampton North862115266070021,252
Test ValleyAmport1,820Hampshire North West6365055781190001,298
Test ValleyAnna3,740Hampshire North West2,31529821043610002,927
Test ValleyBlackwater4,103Romsey and Southampton North2,0372765090480032,873
Test ValleyBroughton and Stockbridge3,582Romsey and Southampton North1,88620239201500952,590
Test ValleyCupernham3,895Romsey and Southampton North1,46038093102000122,803
Test ValleyDun Valley1,733Romsey and Southampton North896121297050021,321
Test ValleyHarewood1,748Romsey and Southampton North1,037125100050031,270
Test ValleyKings Somborne and Michelmersh2,106Romsey and Southampton North1,074121273090051,482
Test ValleyNorth Baddesley5,382Romsey and Southampton North2,0495351,2860800173,895
Test ValleyOver Wallop1,369Romsey and Southampton North1,08133920400121,222
Test ValleyPenton Bellinger3,601Hampshire North West2,03238320990180002,732
Test ValleyRomsey Extra3,395Romsey and Southampton North1,17230639304100271,939
Test ValleyTadburn3,989Romsey and Southampton North1,4674231,0470160062,959
Test ValleyValley Park5,575Romsey and Southampton North2,3485101,517060064,387
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,252Winchester1,7213301,1204870073,233
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,251Winchester1,5951416831420042,439
 Total75,481 33,8586,41314,3705893540022755,811

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Test Valley.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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