Thanet East and Sandwich: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Thanet East and Sandwich: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Craig Mackinlay  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 76,908
Turnout: 72.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON27,08348.4%
LAB22,62040.4%
UKIP3,5376.3%
LIB1,3372.4%
Green1,0501.9%
OTH3050.5%
CON Majority4,4638.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Thanet East and Sandwich : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Thanet East and Sandwich constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right4° Right
National Position16° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %65%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education40%43%39%
Good Job51%56%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age51.149.248.5
ABC1 Class53%60%53%

Thanet East and Sandwich ranks #63 for "Leave", #312 for "Right" and #35 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thanet East and Sandwich: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Thanet East and Sandwich been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Thanet East and Sandwich

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Thanet North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thanet North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thanet NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBeltinge5,545Kent North Coastal2,3411,12189112220033,688
CanterburyGreenhill3,173Kent North Coastal1,1667703113750012,110
CanterburyHerne and Broomfield6,329Kent North Coastal2,6871,188721531040064,210
CanterburyHeron9,767Kent North Coastal3,5902,0174752391660096,496
CanterburyReculver2,974Kent North Coastal1,374558102680021,978
CanterburySturry1,460Canterbury and Faversham520295842051001971
CanterburySwalecliffe11Kent North Coastal421000007
CanterburyWest Bay3,273Kent North Coastal1,20073879139200012,177
ThanetBirchington North2,875Kent North Coastal1,332415767690051,913
ThanetBirchington South4,863Kent North Coastal1,8071,0421392062000213,235
ThanetDane Valley6,076Thanet East and Sandwich1,6381,915129306470074,042
ThanetGarlinge3,769Kent North Coastal1,40893028120160062,508
ThanetMargate Central4,219Thanet East and Sandwich1,2701,245161201490082,808
ThanetSalmestone4,435Thanet East and Sandwich1,3901,226116147680022,949
ThanetThanet Villages5,242Kent North Coastal2,2019912913410700253,487
ThanetWestbrook3,229Kent North Coastal1,29269217121200052,147
ThanetWestgate-on-Sea5,415Kent North Coastal1,9431,2811961411600243,601
 Total72,655 27,16316,4261,5872,1978280012648,327

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thanet North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thanet South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thanet South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thanet SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverLittle Stour and Ashstone5,261Dover and Deal2,47764143833220073,618
DoverSandwich5,281Thanet East and Sandwich2,172964375941700103,632
ThanetBeacon Road3,512Thanet East and Sandwich1,1881,02844131600172,414
ThanetBradstowe3,001Thanet East and Sandwich1,21367942892300172,063
ThanetCentral Harbour6,054Thanet East and Sandwich1,7101,8907920020800764,163
ThanetCliffsend and Pegwell3,593Thanet East and Sandwich1,438789241713600142,472
ThanetCliftonville East4,719Thanet East and Sandwich1,8851,026352681000223,246
ThanetCliftonville West6,802Thanet East and Sandwich1,9962,0793741111900364,678
ThanetEastcliff6,056Thanet East and Sandwich1,6871,9313031417500284,165
ThanetKingsgate1,599Thanet East and Sandwich746275165740021,100
ThanetNethercourt3,441Thanet East and Sandwich1,12297756187160082,366
ThanetNewington3,831Thanet East and Sandwich9351,41360207130072,635
ThanetNorthwood4,859Thanet East and Sandwich1,4171,52738333190093,343
ThanetSir Moses Montefiore3,799Thanet East and Sandwich1,1251,17377165660062,612
ThanetSt Peters5,266Thanet East and Sandwich2,0141,293931911800123,621
ThanetViking5,267Thanet East and Sandwich2,1371,190701465600243,623
 Total72,341 25,26218,8751,5142,9978080029549,751

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thanet South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Thanet East and Sandwich

The new seat of Thanet East and Sandwich is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Thanet East and Sandwich
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverSandwich5,638Thanet South2,172964375941700103,632
ThanetBeacon Road3,395Thanet South1,1881,02844131600172,414
ThanetBradstowe3,240Thanet South1,21367942892300172,063
ThanetCentral Harbour5,511Thanet South1,7101,8907920020800764,163
ThanetCliffsend and Pegwell3,862Thanet South1,438789241713600142,472
ThanetCliftonville East5,133Thanet South1,8851,026352681000223,246
ThanetCliftonville West4,571Thanet South1,9962,0793741111900364,678
ThanetDane Valley5,256Thanet North1,6381,915129306470074,042
ThanetEastcliff4,920Thanet South1,6871,9313031417500284,165
ThanetKingsgate1,708Thanet South746275165740021,100
ThanetMargate Central3,199Thanet North1,2701,245161201490082,808
ThanetNethercourt3,498Thanet South1,12297756187160082,366
ThanetNewington3,530Thanet South9351,41360207130072,635
ThanetNorthwood4,914Thanet South1,4171,52738333190093,343
ThanetSalmestone3,886Thanet North1,3901,226116147680022,949
ThanetSir Moses Montefiore3,630Thanet South1,1251,17377165660062,612
ThanetSt Peters5,459Thanet South2,0141,293931911800123,621
ThanetViking5,558Thanet South2,1371,190701465600243,623
 Total76,908 27,08322,6201,3373,5371,0500030555,932

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Thanet East and Sandwich.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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