Thetford and Downham Market: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Thetford and Downham Market: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Elizabeth Truss  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,224
Turnout: 69.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,09960.7%
LAB14,21028.7%
LIB2,5895.2%
UKIP2,5195.1%
Green1340.3%
OTH320.1%
CON Majority15,88932.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Thetford and Downham Market : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Thetford and Downham Market constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position20° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %68%57%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job53%53%51%
High SEC58%53%51%
Average Age52.349.448.5
ABC1 Class58%55%53%

Thetford and Downham Market ranks #35 for "Leave", #58 for "Right" and #8 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thetford and Downham Market: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Thetford and Downham Market been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Thetford and Downham Market

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireDownham Villages3,330Cambridgeshire North East1,61834686112500152,101
East CambridgeshireLittleport East3,973Thetford and Downham Market1,6345072082411500202,508
East CambridgeshireLittleport West2,580Thetford and Downham Market902403217751900121,628
East CambridgeshireSutton2,969Cambridgeshire North East96540140156480031,874
FenlandBassenhally3,726Cambridgeshire North East1,527575177352600122,352
FenlandBenwick, Coates and Eastrea3,349Cambridgeshire North East1,647280332412000102,114
FenlandBirch2,076Cambridgeshire North East8392821018530011,311
FenlandClarkson1,777Cambridgeshire North East5684373101100011,120
FenlandDoddington and Wimblington3,315Cambridgeshire North East1,836172215250072,093
FenlandElm and Christchurch3,624Cambridgeshire North East1,45149327213970072,288
FenlandKirkgate1,706Cambridgeshire North East6672801310980011,078
FenlandLattersey2,078Cambridgeshire North East1,0641852125120051,312
FenlandManea1,675Cambridgeshire North East79418916341100141,058
FenlandMarch East5,540Cambridgeshire North East1,9191,226961864800233,498
FenlandMarch North5,969Cambridgeshire North East2,1761,03227212113600313,768
FenlandMarch West5,228Cambridgeshire North East2,0611,01979526400263,301
FenlandMedworth1,731Cambridgeshire North East6922912761200031,094
FenlandOctavia Hill3,979Cambridgeshire North East1,42387813168230062,511
FenlandParson Drove and Wisbech St Mary3,680Cambridgeshire North East1,49447029837160092,324
FenlandPeckover1,769Cambridgeshire North East726277488170041,116
FenlandRoman Bank4,764Cambridgeshire North East1,973669522782200123,006
FenlandSlade Lode1,918Cambridgeshire North East9941562223150011,211
FenlandSt Andrews1,885Cambridgeshire North East76532831143800131,189
FenlandStaithe2,032Cambridgeshire North East6994276125210031,281
FenlandStonald1,857Cambridgeshire North East796241765500041,172
FenlandThe Mills2,115Cambridgeshire North East1,1431174213170031,335
FenlandWaterlees Village4,158Cambridgeshire North East1,2411,2135912900452,624
FenlandWenneye1,605Cambridgeshire North East725173366990021,014
 Total84,408 34,33913,0672,3832,1751,0240029353,281

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,185Norfolk Mid1,122230615800001,471
BrecklandAshill558Norfolk Mid2218927390000376
BrecklandBedingfield2,252Thetford and Downham Market1,244185563100001,516
BrecklandForest2,267Thetford and Downham Market914525612600001,526
BrecklandGuiltcross2,209Norfolk Mid1,063385281100001,487
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,269Norfolk Mid1,268187512100001,527
BrecklandLaunditch26Norfolk Mid15200000017
BrecklandNar Valley1,884Thetford and Downham Market8142541019900001,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,456Thetford and Downham Market2,9494561937500003,673
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,116Norfolk Mid5361812850000750
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,817Thetford and Downham Market1,28494616717300002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,473Thetford and Downham Market1,1751,54311218100003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,608Thetford and Downham Market1,6091,08822318200003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,427Thetford and Downham Market1,3021,93713527800003,652
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,152Thetford and Downham Market1,81357520919800002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,963Thetford and Downham Market2,5301,16815216300004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,987Thetford and Downham Market693494737700001,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,337Thetford and Downham Market967527512800001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,567Thetford and Downham Market1,6524977417800002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,801Thetford and Downham Market1,035145131900001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,850Thetford and Downham Market7543145212600001,246
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,557Thetford and Downham Market637316464900001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,633Thetford and Downham Market6502726611100001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,891Thetford and Downham Market982243173000001,272
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,576Thetford and Downham Market1,5915779314500002,406
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,988Norfolk North West1,10420762100001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,846Thetford and Downham Market6374311116500001,244
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,578Thetford and Downham Market577333718100001,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,882Thetford and Downham Market1,062150332200001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,715Thetford and Downham Market692324558300001,154
 Total77,870 32,89214,5812,3652,575000052,413

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Thetford and Downham Market

The new seat of Thetford and Downham Market is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Thetford and Downham Market
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandBedingfield2,336Norfolk South West1,244185563100001,516
BrecklandForest2,162Norfolk South West914525612600001,526
BrecklandNar Valley2,081Norfolk South West8142541019900001,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,833Norfolk South West2,9494561937500003,673
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,290Norfolk South West1,28494616717300002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell3,696Norfolk South West1,1751,54311218100003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle3,590Norfolk South West1,6091,08822318200003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory4,044Norfolk South West1,3021,93713527800003,652
East CambridgeshireLittleport East3,694Cambridgeshire North East1,6345072082411500202,508
East CambridgeshireLittleport West2,358Cambridgeshire North East902403217751900121,628
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield3,570Norfolk South West1,81357520919800002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,513Norfolk South West2,5301,16815216300004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town2,040Norfolk South West693494737700001,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,208Norfolk South West967527512800001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,744Norfolk South West1,6524977417800002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,901Norfolk South West1,035145131900001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,993Norfolk South West7543145212600001,246
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,843Norfolk South West637316464900001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,903Norfolk South West6502726611100001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,929Norfolk South West982243173000001,272
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,916Norfolk South West1,5915779314500002,406
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,957Norfolk South West6374311116500001,244
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,664Norfolk South West577333718100001,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham2,029Norfolk South West1,062150332200001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,930Norfolk South West692324558300001,154
 Total71,224 30,09914,2102,5892,519134003249,583

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Thetford and Downham Market.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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