Thirsk and Malton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Thirsk and Malton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Kevin Hollinrake  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 71,244
Turnout: 75.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,14059.7%
LAB14,10226.2%
LIB3,7777.0%
UKIP1,5022.8%
Green1,0401.9%
MIN7271.4%
OTH5331.0%
CON Majority18,03833.5%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Thirsk and Malton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Thirsk and Malton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Left
National Position10° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%58%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health45%46%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job42%47%51%
High SEC40%46%51%
Average Age46.648.548.5
ABC1 Class41%49%53%

Thirsk and Malton ranks #208 for "Leave", #104 for "Right" and #122 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thirsk and Malton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Thirsk and Malton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Thirsk and Malton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Richmond

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Richmond, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RichmondTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,267Richmond1,2362472007402001,597
HambletonBagby and Thorntons221Thirsk and Malton13514203020156
HambletonBedale7,296Richmond3,5441,1102220136012805,140
HambletonGreat Ayton4,288Richmond1,81784626005704203,022
HambletonHutton Rudby2,321Richmond1,1204542701701901,637
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,009Richmond1,0712693502102001,416
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,154Richmond1,5561,068121010008002,925
HambletonNorthallerton South5,325Richmond1,9491,53316505704703,751
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,265Richmond1,0793745702605901,595
HambletonRomanby4,668Richmond2,0901,01111103104603,289
HambletonStokesley4,579Richmond1,71279657909804203,227
HambletonTanfield2,267Richmond1,2312902603401701,598
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,002Richmond497112540160260705
RichmondshireBarton921Richmond462132330100130650
RichmondshireBolton Castle957Richmond446120380250450674
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,317Richmond1,2262821609201701,633
RichmondshireCatterick2,380Richmond1,11432327074013801,676
RichmondshireColburn3,662Richmond1,519670820119019002,580
RichmondshireCroft964Richmond465142120280330680
RichmondshireGilling West899Richmond43213121050450634
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,022Richmond349222380270840720
RichmondshireHipswell4,227Richmond2,0214442020136017602,979
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,348Richmond728102340760110951
RichmondshireLeyburn1,930Richmond9582219103705301,360
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,125Richmond6306618072080794
RichmondshireMelsonby1,071Richmond555139120130360755
RichmondshireMiddleham972Richmond5915980170100685
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas894Richmond45011423060380631
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby984Richmond486116470150300694
RichmondshirePenhill857Richmond37597730230360604
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale929Richmond297186640460620655
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,138Richmond66427148307001801,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,021Richmond85427017005307701,424
RichmondshireRichmond West2,189Richmond81247384056011701,542
RichmondshireScotton3,630Richmond1,63353762036028902,557
RichmondshireSwaledale824Richmond358112420350330580
 Total80,923 36,46213,3533,35901,74102,107057,022

The full details of these calculations are given on the Richmond seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thirsk and Malton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thirsk and Malton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thirsk and MaltonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,493Thirsk and Malton1,5341703231601261,773
HambletonEasingwold7,972Thirsk and Malton3,7921,31327823133068615,668
HambletonHuby2,769Thirsk and Malton1,7091546071801481,970
HambletonMorton-on-Swale540Richmond289761112032384
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,783Thirsk and Malton1,684179871140681,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,375Thirsk and Malton2,3409962088138094653,822
HambletonThirsk5,478Thirsk and Malton2,4819542159342057533,895
RyedaleAmotherby1,638Thirsk and Malton7263515211020151,166
RyedaleAmpleforth1,757Thirsk and Malton78419611101490531,248
RyedaleCropton1,245Thirsk and Malton581214445801814884
RyedaleDales1,163Thirsk and Malton5751813111601410828
RyedaleDerwent2,815Thirsk and Malton1,287397267411020142,000
RyedaleHelmsley2,467Thirsk and Malton1,160382129243023141,753
RyedaleHovingham1,351Thirsk and Malton3593959096802415960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,780Thirsk and Malton1,0805891552883022191,976
RyedaleMalton3,970Thirsk and Malton1,2301,2371419625058342,821
RyedaleNorton East3,164Thirsk and Malton1,0006654161226019202,248
RyedaleNorton West2,834Thirsk and Malton9065584346614022142,014
RyedalePickering East2,629Thirsk and Malton8316852233920040321,870
RyedalePickering West2,928Thirsk and Malton994792176368044332,083
RyedaleRillington1,402Thirsk and Malton36739596762602116997
RyedaleRyedale South West1,367Thirsk and Malton8101113636043973
RyedaleSherburn1,617Thirsk and Malton60033553106460561,151
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,407Thirsk and Malton7162064326017101,000
RyedaleSinnington1,375Thirsk and Malton64520156360084977
RyedaleThornton Dale2,646Scarborough and Whitby1,28040873286102381,881
RyedaleWolds1,464Thirsk and Malton88113012330751,041
ScarboroughFiley5,305Thirsk and Malton1,3471,53921649178059413,771
ScarboroughHertford3,935Thirsk and Malton1,58676311420199024102,797
 Total78,669 33,57414,5723,8591,5311,100075154355,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thirsk and Malton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Thirsk and Malton

The new seat of Thirsk and Malton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Thirsk and Malton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons220Richmond13615302010157
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,476Thirsk and Malton1,5331693131701361,772
HambletonEasingwold7,423Thirsk and Malton3,7921,31327823133068615,668
HambletonHuby2,726Thirsk and Malton1,7091546071801481,970
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,571Thirsk and Malton1,684179871140681,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe4,675Thirsk and Malton2,3409962088138094653,822
HambletonThirsk4,919Thirsk and Malton2,4819542159342057533,895
RyedaleAmotherby1,479Thirsk and Malton7263515211020151,166
RyedaleAmpleforth1,236Thirsk and Malton78419611101490531,248
RyedaleCropton1,253Thirsk and Malton581214445801814884
RyedaleDales1,062Thirsk and Malton5751813111601410828
RyedaleDerwent2,630Thirsk and Malton1,287397267411020142,000
RyedaleHelmsley2,369Thirsk and Malton1,160382129243023141,753
RyedaleHovingham1,384Thirsk and Malton3593959096802415960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,634Thirsk and Malton1,0805891552883022191,976
RyedaleMalton3,745Thirsk and Malton1,2301,2371419625058342,821
RyedaleNorton East3,060Thirsk and Malton1,0006654161226019202,248
RyedaleNorton West2,408Thirsk and Malton9065584346614022142,014
RyedalePickering East2,747Thirsk and Malton8316852233920040321,870
RyedalePickering West2,701Thirsk and Malton994792176368044332,083
RyedaleRillington1,332Thirsk and Malton36739596762602116997
RyedaleRyedale South West1,320Thirsk and Malton8101113636043973
RyedaleSherburn1,505Thirsk and Malton60033553106460561,151
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,345Thirsk and Malton7162064326017101,000
RyedaleSinnington1,381Thirsk and Malton64520156360084977
RyedaleWolds1,461Thirsk and Malton88113012330751,041
ScarboroughFiley5,255Thirsk and Malton1,3471,53921649178059413,771
ScarboroughHertford3,927Thirsk and Malton1,58676311420199024102,797
 Total71,244 32,14014,1023,7771,5021,040072753353,821

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Thirsk and Malton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)