Totnes: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Totnes: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Sarah Wollaston  (CON)
County/Area:Devon (South West)
Electorate:76,915
Turnout:72.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,42154.3%
LAB14,63826.1%
LIB7,52213.4%
Green2,2174.0%
UKIP1,2462.2%
CON Majority15,78328.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Totnes been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Totnes: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Totnes

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood5,945Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,6481,795180196580004,877
PlymouthPlympton Erle6,680Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,8291,8173111851250005,267
PlymouthPlympton St Mary9,973Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge4,6022,3132902661820007,653
PlymouthPlymstock Dunstone9,465Plymouth Sutton and Devonport4,2562,2423982641490007,309
PlymouthPlymstock Radford9,800Plymouth Sutton and Devonport4,2512,534287268970007,437
South HamsBickleigh and Cornwood2,197Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,09737110824400001,640
South HamsCharterlands2,217Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,1433774323450001,631
South HamsErmington and Ugborough2,195Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,01035912220380001,549
South HamsIvybridge East4,201Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,8831,018311110870003,409
South HamsIvybridge West4,634Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,44494813160960003,679
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford763Totnes37512214715000533
South HamsNewton and Yealmpton4,785Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,18080228645940003,407
South HamsWembury and Brixton3,664Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,76160018439620002,646
South HamsWoolwell2,215Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,1565196532470001,819
 Total68,734 31,63515,8172,7301,5391,13500052,856

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newton Abbot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newton Abbot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newton AbbotTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TeignbridgeAmbrook4,767Totnes2,2637566480930003,760
TeignbridgeBishopsteignton2,171Newton Abbot9272683350300001,560
TeignbridgeBradley4,421Newton Abbot1,7996754890270002,990
TeignbridgeBuckland and Milber5,546Newton Abbot1,9791,0451,1550860004,265
TeignbridgeBushell4,992Newton Abbot2,0291,0251,0300820004,166
TeignbridgeCollege3,914Newton Abbot1,5647267670750003,132
TeignbridgeDawlish Central and North East7,003Newton Abbot2,8071,17681301140004,910
TeignbridgeDawlish South West3,909Newton Abbot1,8696894110650003,034
TeignbridgeIpplepen2,056Totnes8122653900130001,480
TeignbridgeKenton with Starcross2,356Newton Abbot9103805010400001,831
TeignbridgeKerswell-with-Combe4,634Newton Abbot1,9146878360330003,470
TeignbridgeKingsteignton East4,568Newton Abbot2,1368795060320003,553
TeignbridgeKingsteignton West4,134Newton Abbot1,6226828220310003,157
TeignbridgeShaldon and Stokeinteignhead1,986Newton Abbot1,0902121780140001,494
TeignbridgeTeignmouth Central3,732Newton Abbot1,8226445070640003,037
TeignbridgeTeignmouth East3,959Newton Abbot1,6896044470610002,801
TeignbridgeTeignmouth West3,748Newton Abbot1,4037617660670002,997
 Total67,896 28,63511,47410,601092700051,637

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newton Abbot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Totnes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Totnes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TotnesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South HamsAllington and Strete2,306Totnes1,14930813621710001,685
South HamsBlackawton and Stoke Fleming1,808Totnes89525810616570001,332
South HamsDartington and Staverton1,984Totnes85842617519990001,577
South HamsDartmouth and East Dart6,216Totnes2,9361,309472711240004,912
South HamsKingsbridge4,454Totnes2,025827526501580003,586
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford1,291Totnes589174771140000891
South HamsMarldon and Littlehempston2,293Totnes1,02831121823660001,646
South HamsSalcombe and Thurlestone3,958Totnes2,24550625745710003,124
South HamsSouth Brent4,075Totnes1,818792271361380003,055
South HamsStokenham2,146Totnes78829235021590001,510
South HamsTotnes6,364Totnes1,9061,8727041402770004,899
South HamsWest Dart2,016Totnes89530522716740001,517
TorbayBerry Head-with-Furzeham7,494Totnes2,6701,7217252452990005,660
TorbayBlatchcombe7,800Totnes2,7822,1309802132640006,369
TorbayChurston-with-Galmpton5,578Totnes2,3038406271371260004,033
TorbaySt Mary's-with-Summercombe5,620Totnes2,0841,4246191751730004,475
 Total65,403 26,97113,4956,4701,2392,09600050,271

The full details of these calculations are given on the Totnes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Totnes

The new seat of Totnes is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Totnes
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South HamsAllington and Strete2,309Totnes1,14930813621710001,685
South HamsBlackawton and Stoke Fleming1,827Totnes89525810616570001,332
South HamsDartington and Staverton2,162Totnes85842617519990001,577
South HamsDartmouth and East Dart6,734Totnes2,9361,309472711240004,912
South HamsKingsbridge4,914Totnes2,025827526501580003,586
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford720Devon South West37512214715000533
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford1,221Totnes589174771140000891
South HamsMarldon and Littlehempston2,255Totnes1,02831121823660001,646
South HamsSalcombe and Thurlestone4,283Totnes2,24550625745710003,124
South HamsSouth Brent4,188Totnes1,818792271361380003,055
South HamsStokenham2,071Totnes78829235021590001,510
South HamsTotnes6,717Totnes1,9061,8727041402770004,899
South HamsWest Dart2,080Totnes89530522716740001,517
TeignbridgeAmbrook5,223Newton Abbot2,2637566480930003,760
TeignbridgeIpplepen2,057Newton Abbot8122653900130001,480
TorbayBerry Head-with-Furzeham7,759Totnes2,6701,7217252452990005,660
TorbayBlatchcombe8,731Totnes2,7822,1309802132640006,369
TorbayChurston-with-Galmpton5,529Totnes2,3038406271371260004,033
TorbaySt Mary's-with-Summercombe6,135Totnes2,0841,4246191751730004,475
 Total76,915 30,42114,6387,5221,2462,21700056,044

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Totnes. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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