Truro and Newquay: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Truro and Newquay: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Sarah Newton  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 73,775
Turnout: 79.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,40848.2%
LAB18,27031.0%
LIB11,31119.2%
Green5621.0%
UKIP4200.7%
CON Majority10,13817.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Truro and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Truro and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job45%50%51%
High SEC46%52%51%
Average Age52.350.548.5
ABC1 Class45%54%53%

Truro and Newquay ranks #367 for "Leave", #311 for "Right" and #357 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Truro and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Truro and Newquay been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Truro and Newquay

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and RedruthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,972Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,156866850270002,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,650Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1931,334690260002,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,441Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1501,168750790002,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,430Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9881,1632160980002,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,008Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0021,046840270002,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,488Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8537455801310001,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,739Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,787812150710002,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,894St Ives820491300190001,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,543Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2261,1741190270002,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,500St Ives991649830730001,796
CornwallHayle North3,776St Ives1,2251,3101040730002,712
CornwallHayle South3,325St Ives1,1271,147860280002,388
CornwallIllogan3,728Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,3891,0162370360002,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,784Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,4131,196610480002,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,365Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2598083070440002,418
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,589Truro and Newquay7968159200460002,577
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,269Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9211,349670100002,347
CornwallRedruth Central3,013Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,143911950150002,164
CornwallRedruth North4,762Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1752,0891140410003,419
CornwallRedruth South3,209Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0171,178570530002,305
CornwallSt Agnes437Truro and Newquay138759309000315
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage541St Ives232843070000389
 Total67,463 23,00121,4262,97801,05100048,456

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: St Austell and Newquay

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Austell and Newquay, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St Austell and NewquayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,799Bodmin and St Austell839573518000001,930
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,440Bodmin and St Austell1,231468673000002,372
CornwallMevagissey3,213Bodmin and St Austell1,167679370000002,216
CornwallMount Charles3,695Bodmin and St Austell1,231967350000002,548
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern635Truro and Newquay2871014900000437
CornwallNewquay Central3,072Truro and Newquay801526791000002,118
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,197Truro and Newquay1,028293883000002,204
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,326Truro and Newquay1,112322860000002,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,836Truro and Newquay1,053396506000001,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,289Truro and Newquay1,063657548000002,268
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,018Bodmin and St Austell973479629000002,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,606Bodmin and St Austell1,110677700000002,487
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound547Truro and Newquay2041195300000376
CornwallRoche3,057Bodmin and St Austell1,158772178000002,108
CornwallRoseland82Truro and Newquay341580000057
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,432Bodmin and St Austell1,471653243000002,367
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,747Bodmin and St Austell1,168833583000002,584
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,596Bodmin and St Austell1,385856239000002,480
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,374Bodmin and St Austell860777689000002,326
CornwallSt Blazey3,660Bodmin and St Austell830942752000002,524
CornwallSt Columb Major4,021Truro and Newquay1,377855541000002,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,686Truro and Newquay1,276996271000002,543
CornwallSt Enoder3,597Truro and Newquay1,313897270000002,480
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,806Truro and Newquay1,435325175000001,935
CornwallSt Mewan3,020Bodmin and St Austell1,153405525000002,083
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,866Bodmin and St Austell1,2961,133237000002,666
 Total78,617 26,85515,71611,6410000054,212

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Austell and Newquay seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Truro and Falmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Truro and FalmouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,296Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth378451863930000984
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,195Truro and Newquay1,4377341638530002,422
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,971Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,37558124521320002,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,822Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2441,0835056430002,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,789Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8221,64926796410002,875
CornwallFalmouth Smithick3,916Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9341,51741001080002,969
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,755Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0131,48026164310002,849
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,952Truro and Newquay1,80983731325140002,998
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,565Truro and Newquay1,511630394111580002,704
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,256Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth424327169302000952
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,302Truro and Newquay1,48180716739100002,504
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,298Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,5261,08554459450003,259
CornwallPenryn West3,913Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9161,279633106330002,967
CornwallPerranporth3,726Truro and Newquay1,2601,22528030290002,824
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,746Truro and Newquay9358862144710002,083
CornwallRoseland2,827Truro and Newquay1,1187532373430002,145
CornwallSt Agnes3,254Truro and Newquay9775878703310002,468
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,405Truro and Newquay1,0481,0454543320002,582
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,417Truro and Newquay1,3771,42743161100003,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,740Truro and Newquay9648259930530002,835
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,794Truro and Newquay1,1521,13850160270002,878
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,751Truro and Newquay1,42298432647660002,845
 Total74,690 25,12321,3308,46389983200056,647

The full details of these calculations are given on the Truro and Falmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Truro and Newquay

The new seat of Truro and Newquay is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Truro and Newquay
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu2,914Truro and Falmouth1,4377341638530002,422
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,649Truro and Falmouth1,80983731325140002,998
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,410Truro and Falmouth1,511630394111580002,704
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,447Camborne and Redruth7968159200460002,577
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern590St Austell and Newquay2851473562000475
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,066Truro and Falmouth1,4837611813380002,466
CornwallNewquay Central2,534St Austell and Newquay801526791000002,118
CornwallNewquay Pentire2,936St Austell and Newquay1,028293883000002,204
CornwallNewquay Treloggan2,902St Austell and Newquay1,112322860000002,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,817St Austell and Newquay1,053396506000001,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas2,956St Austell and Newquay1,063657548000002,268
CornwallPerranporth3,455Truro and Falmouth1,2601,22528030290002,824
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound521St Austell and Newquay1891674480000408
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,615Truro and Falmouth9508382233910002,051
CornwallRoseland78St Austell and Newquay332271000063
CornwallRoseland2,686Truro and Falmouth1,1197462383330002,139
CornwallSt Agnes416Camborne and Redruth1327811405000329
CornwallSt Agnes3,094Truro and Falmouth9835848493350002,454
CornwallSt Columb Major3,432St Austell and Newquay1,377855541000002,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,112St Austell and Newquay1,276996271000002,543
CornwallSt Enoder3,236St Austell and Newquay1,313897270000002,480
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,799St Austell and Newquay1,435325175000001,935
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,072Truro and Falmouth1,0481,0454543320002,582
CornwallTruro Boscawen3,765Truro and Falmouth1,3771,42743161100003,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,368Truro and Falmouth9648259930530002,835
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,460Truro and Falmouth1,1521,13850160270002,878
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,445Truro and Falmouth1,42298432647660002,845
 Total73,775 28,40818,27011,31142056200058,971

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Truro and Newquay.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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