Tyrone North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tyrone North: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Barry McElduff  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,033
Turnout: 69.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,67251.8%
DUP12,28224.8%
SDLP5,79411.7%
UUP3,8197.7%
MIN1,2452.5%
Green3840.8%
OTH3230.7%
SF Majority13,39027.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Tyrone North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tyrone North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tyrone North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Upper Bann and Blackwater2001400416470389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann and Blackwater1471000312150286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone8861070086101401,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone513710066762601,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone783950075411201,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone620860078173101,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone34957005707001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8806700327435001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone575800077572901,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone524730066912701,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34557005699001,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone759920065241201,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone506700066682601,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone9491150086561501,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8096200296834701,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8196200296934701,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone45975006929001,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone48880007987001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone38062005767001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone32253004650001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6424900225413701,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone722870064971101,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone765910010831001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone809960010878001,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone67180008729001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Upper Bann and Blackwater1,1618600191,0218102,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Upper Bann and Blackwater832990010903001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone54865007595001,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone72987009792001,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Upper Bann and Blackwater7005200126164901,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Upper Bann and Blackwater9807300168606901,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Upper Bann and Blackwater9366900168246501,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Upper Bann and Blackwater9026700157946301,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Tyrone North9957400168767002,031
 Total70,599 24,3552,5890042425,232887053,487

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tyrone West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tyrone West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tyrone WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,460Tyrone North372134990880083331,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,615Tyrone North392265300985188351,778
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,423Fermanagh and South Tyrone1161465040982533131,646
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,439Tyrone North362104940879482321,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,052Tyrone North1461856350111,03842172,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,285Fermanagh and South Tyrone1091384750877732131,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,191Tyrone North331894450771273291,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,290Fermanagh and South Tyrone1091394750877932131,555
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,659Tyrone North12716255301090437151,808
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk868Foyle2011325204169239590
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,500Tyrone North382165070881284331,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,251Tyrone North341944560773276301,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,007Tyrone North88143218042863731,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,156Tyrone North642794170765134131,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,474Tyrone North733214790874539151,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,759Tyrone North522283410653127111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,979Fermanagh and South Tyrone89175373066831351,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,151Tyrone North95153234046924731,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,983Fermanagh and South Tyrone89176375066831351,347
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,974Tyrone North88175372066801351,339
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,766Fermanagh and South Tyrone79156334066091251,201
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,284Tyrone North101163248049982731,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,300Tyrone North682984440769336141,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,136Tyrone North632774130764433131,450
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,798Fermanagh and South Tyrone80159340066201251,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,839Tyrone North81131199039790621,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,014Tyrone North89144218042867731,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,934Tyrone North572513740658330121,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,625Tyrone North72116176035699621,106
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,797Fermanagh and South Tyrone80159340066191251,221
 Total64,009 2,2525,63511,720042722,05999939643,488

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tyrone West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Tyrone North96206372009993801,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone29251090011300276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Glenshane130166490001,046001,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Glenshane11815044700951001,666
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone50431860019400473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Glenshane11915245100960001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Tyrone North149120415007913501,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Upper Bann and Blackwater92199357009613701,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Upper Bann and Blackwater107229414001,1104301,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Tyrone North144116400007633301,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Tyrone North165132458008723801,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Tyrone North164132456008673801,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Glenshane76166638006538401,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Tyrone North96206370009983801,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Glenshane9812537100791001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Glenshane81179684007009001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Upper Bann and Blackwater241711700100230281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Upper Bann and Blackwater139660056130157
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Glenshane78172657006728701,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Tyrone North132106365006963101,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Glenshane49132236009042501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Glenshane63172304001,1653201,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Tyrone North141114394007493301,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Tyrone North175140486009244101,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Tyrone North81174314008423301,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Glenshane57155275001,0542901,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Glenshane60164290001,1133001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Glenshane81176675006928901,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Glenshane11714944400944001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Glenshane80175668006858801,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Glenshane60165292001,1203001,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Upper Bann and Blackwater93200360009683701,658
 Total68,482 3,0184,56612,5610025,4531,095046,693

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tyrone North

The new seat of Tyrone North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tyrone North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,555Tyrone West372134990880083331,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,560Tyrone West392265300985188351,778
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,452Tyrone West362104940879482321,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn2,797Tyrone West1461856350111,03842172,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,397Tyrone West331894450771273291,488
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,600Tyrone West12716255301090437151,808
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,504Tyrone West382165070881284331,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,384Tyrone West341944560773276301,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,008Tyrone West88143218042863731,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,174Tyrone West642794170765134131,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,176Tyrone West733214790874539151,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,705Tyrone West522283410653127111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,045Tyrone West95153234046924731,462
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,149Tyrone West88175372066801351,339
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,020Tyrone West101163248049982731,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,082Tyrone West682984440769336141,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,062Tyrone West632774130764433131,450
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,963Tyrone West81131199039790621,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross1,973Tyrone West89144218042867731,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,699Tyrone West572513740658330121,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,825Tyrone West72116176035699621,106
Mid UlsterArdboe2,603Ulster Mid96206372009993801,711
Mid UlsterCoagh2,265Ulster Mid149120415007913501,510
Mid UlsterCookstown East1,960Ulster Mid144116400007633301,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,190Ulster Mid165132458008723801,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,254Ulster Mid164132456008673801,657
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,540Ulster Mid96206370009983801,708
Mid UlsterLoughry2,018Ulster Mid132106365006963101,330
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,090Fermanagh and South Tyrone9957400168767002,031
Mid UlsterOaklands2,304Ulster Mid141114394007493301,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,533Ulster Mid175140486009244101,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,146Ulster Mid81174314008423301,444
 Total71,033 3,8195,79412,282038425,6721,24532349,519

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tyrone North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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