Tyrone West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Tyrone West: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Barry McElduff  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,377
Turnout: 67.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF23,45449.7%
DUP13,23128.0%
SDLP6,02712.8%
UUP2,3244.9%
MIN1,3032.8%
OTH4300.9%
Green4230.9%
SF Majority10,22321.7%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Tyrone West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Tyrone West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Foyle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Foyle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: FoyleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty2,911Foyle0904660079089551,904
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,468Foyle0567450090361371,613
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,237Foyle0685340067046281,463
Derry and StrabaneCaw2,985Foyle06596730057428171,951
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,405Foyle0553440087959361,571
Derry and StrabaneClaudy13Tyrone West033003009
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,478Foyle05485580047623141,619
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,362Foyle0544430086458361,545
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,212Foyle0509400081054331,446
Derry and StrabaneCulmore2,954Foyle0904440088560371,930
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe2,936Foyle06476620056528171,919
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,762Foyle06096230053126161,805
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,731Foyle05706510048748301,786
Derry and StrabaneEnagh2,862Foyle05986820051050311,871
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,225Foyle0690500060468421,454
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh2,891Foyle0886430086659361,890
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan2,911Foyle06436560056027171,903
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,485Foyle05485600047924151,626
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,530Foyle0785570068877481,655
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,544Foyle05316070045345281,664
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,140Foyle0974710085396592,053
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,470Foyle0756370074050311,614
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,004Foyle0920450090061381,964
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,507Foyle0577460091662381,639
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,835Foyle0868430084958351,853
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,487Foyle0310354002652616971
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,261Foyle0702510061469421,478
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,717Foyle06006120052226161,776
 Total70,323 018,0907,4000018,2561,37884845,972

The full details of these calculations are given on the Foyle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Causeway1941198300021780101,450
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Causeway015039300656122161,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Causeway1971021,174000251331,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Causeway014537900635118151,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Causeway1911188200021580101,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Causeway13025552000627911,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Causeway83117736002613441,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Causeway97137860003064051,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Causeway168881,006000215281,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Ulster Mid014938900654121161,329
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Tyrone West015740900687127171,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Ulster Mid1871158040021178101,405
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Causeway020252900885164211,801
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Causeway90125791002803751,328
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Causeway172891,029000220291,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Ulster Mid1891178090021279101,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Causeway164101704001856891,231
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Causeway104146916003264261,540
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Causeway12825151200618911,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Causeway13570810000173221,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Causeway15581924000197261,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Causeway141275562006771011,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Causeway82115726002583441,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Causeway14027355800672911,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Causeway154301615007421111,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Causeway142277565006821011,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Tyrone West552067870028188111,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Tyrone West3713956400593112151,460
 Total67,037 3,1354,42019,7210010,8802,53832841,022

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tyrone West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tyrone West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tyrone WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,460Tyrone West372134990880083331,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,615Tyrone West392265300985188351,778
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,423Tyrone West1161465040982533131,646
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,439Tyrone West362104940879482321,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,052Tyrone West1461856350111,03842172,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,285Tyrone West1091384750877732131,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,191Tyrone West331894450771273291,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,290Tyrone West1091394750877932131,555
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,659Tyrone West12716255301090437151,808
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk868Foyle2011325204169239590
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,500Tyrone West382165070881284331,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,251Tyrone West341944560773276301,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,007Tyrone West88143218042863731,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,156Tyrone West642794170765134131,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,474Tyrone West733214790874539151,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,759Tyrone West522283410653127111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,979Tyrone West89175373066831351,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,151Tyrone West95153234046924731,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,983Tyrone West89176375066831351,347
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,974Tyrone West88175372066801351,339
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,766Tyrone West79156334066091251,201
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,284Tyrone West101163248049982731,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,300Tyrone West682984440769336141,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,136Tyrone West632774130764433131,450
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,798Tyrone West80159340066201251,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,839Tyrone West81131199039790621,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,014Tyrone West89144218042867731,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,934Tyrone West572513740658330121,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,625Tyrone West72116176035699621,106
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,797Tyrone West80159340066191251,221
 Total64,009 2,2525,63511,720042722,05999939643,488

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tyrone West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Tyrone West

The new seat of Tyrone West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Tyrone West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,280Londonderry East015740900687127171,397
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,561Tyrone West372134990880083331,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,567Tyrone West392265300985188351,778
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,469Tyrone West1161465040982533131,646
Derry and StrabaneClaudy14Foyle014002007
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,509Londonderry East552087860028288111,430
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,458Tyrone West362104940879482321,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn2,803Tyrone West1461856350111,03842172,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,432Tyrone West1091384750877732131,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,403Tyrone West331894450771273291,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,280Tyrone West1091394750877932131,555
Derry and StrabanePark2,481Londonderry East3713956400593112151,460
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,607Tyrone West12716255301090437151,808
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,510Tyrone West382165070881284331,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,390Tyrone West341944560773276301,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,012Tyrone West88143218042863731,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,179Tyrone West642794170765134131,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,181Tyrone West733214790874539151,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,709Tyrone West522283410653127111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,952Tyrone West89175373066831351,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,050Tyrone West95153234046924731,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,063Tyrone West89176375066831351,347
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,154Tyrone West88175372066801351,339
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,784Tyrone West79156334066091251,201
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,025Tyrone West101163248049982731,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,087Tyrone West682984440769336141,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,067Tyrone West632774130764433131,450
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,996Tyrone West80159340066201251,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,967Tyrone West81131199039790621,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross1,977Tyrone West89144218042867731,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,703Tyrone West572513740658330121,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,830Tyrone West72116176035699621,106
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,877Tyrone West80159340066191251,221
 Total70,377 2,3246,02713,231042323,4541,30343047,192

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Tyrone West.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (22-Apr-2018 09:07)