Upper Bann: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Upper Bann: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Simpson  (DUP)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 69,766
Turnout: 65.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,42542.9%
SF13,54429.9%
UUP6,30913.9%
SDLP3,9488.7%
MIN2,0994.6%
Green30.0%
OTH10.0%
DUP Majority5,88113.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Upper Bann been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Upper Bann

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh2001400416470389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1471000312150286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone8861070086101401,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone513710066762601,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone783950075411201,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone620860078173101,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone34957005707001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8806700327435001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone575800077572901,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone524730066912701,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34557005699001,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone759920065241201,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone506700066682601,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone9491150086561501,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8096200296834701,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8196200296934701,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone45975006929001,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone48880007987001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone38062005767001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone32253004650001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6424900225413701,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone722870064971101,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone765910010831001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone809960010878001,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone67180008729001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,1618600191,0218102,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone832990010903001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone54865007595001,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone72987009792001,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone7005200126164901,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9807300168606901,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9366900168246501,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone9026700157946301,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9957400168767002,031
 Total70,599 24,3552,5890042425,232887053,487

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann133260025150
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5311061,0910050192261,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid412828460038149201,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid495981,0130046178241,854
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1442640021193163
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West209311900290375564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2471918850016097131,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South165115935000149201,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid21126843000178241,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2261581,284000205281,901
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South31586760000168231,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West2321631,01500100223311,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid24430973000205281,480
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South21326848000178241,289
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1811277860077173241,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South2151529400092207281,634
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South261321,041000220301,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid32289779000172241,386
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South2031411,146000183251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South31486758000168231,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1801251,021000163221,511
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1981398630085190261,501
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South165114929000149201,377
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2792171,00500183110151,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1851318130081178241,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South29981721000160221,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South387106935000207281,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2121481,202000192261,780
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid21527858000181251,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South33261180021132213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2321631,01700100223311,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South3062381,10200200121171,984
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South8222700214183
 Total72,380 7,5333,38326,763001,5674,99768344,926

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South6939159009570369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh1781301,043006066302,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Upper Bann543200182061
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Upper Bann4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh354173380090210301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh364173380090110301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South96534009140203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh364293470092610601,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total78,266 4,4249,05613,1760025,6621,255053,573

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann246298592009551202,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann231901,0780043213001,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down Mid346106639002455201,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down Mid459141849003266901,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down Mid504155931003577602,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down Mid5901821,090004188902,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Upper Bann2571568750053113401,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann3582181,2190073918702,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann2671051,2460049915102,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann3121901,0620064416402,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann2671639100055214002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Upper Bann361381,1610015517801,893
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Upper Bann518159957003677802,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann2721659250056114202,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann227891,0600042412801,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann212257510008231001,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann250303600009691202,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South27785512001964201,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Upper Bann221268530008581101,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Upper Bann237931,1070044413402,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann253306607009801202,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann267323639001,0341302,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann306369731001,1831402,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann241941,1260045213602,049
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Upper Bann420441,3540018120702,206
 Total80,168 7,8994,39722,3100014,3252,321051,252

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Upper Bann

The new seat of Upper Bann is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Upper Bann
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,406Upper Bann246298592009551202,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,006Upper Bann231901,0780043213001,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,324Upper Bann2571568750053113401,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,679Upper Bann3582181,2190073918702,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain2,944Upper Bann2671051,2460049915102,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,347Upper Bann3121901,0620064416402,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,365Upper Bann2671639100055214002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney81Lagan Valley91290045048
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,208Upper Bann365401,1580015317811,895
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,248Upper Bann518159957003677802,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,255Upper Bann2721659250056114202,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain2,771Upper Bann227891,0600042412801,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,970Upper Bann212257510008231001,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,326Upper Bann250303600009691202,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,370Upper Bann221268530008581101,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon88Newry and Armagh733200134059
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,062Upper Bann235941,1070044913202,017
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,254Upper Bann253306607009801202,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,392Upper Bann267323639001,0341302,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,758Upper Bann306369731001,1831402,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,437Newry and Armagh4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches393Fermanagh and South Tyrone41111180060150245
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,350Upper Bann347931,0080351312602,090
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,732Upper Bann420441,3540018120702,206
 Total69,766 6,3093,94819,4250313,5442,099145,329

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Upper Bann.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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