Walthamstow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Walthamstow: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stella Creasy  (LAB)
County/Area: Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate: 71,280
Turnout: 75.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB43,01780.1%
CON7,55514.1%
LIB1,8163.4%
Green1,3352.5%
LAB Majority35,46266.0%

See overview of other seats in London.

Walthamstow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Walthamstow constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left11° Right
National Position38° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %36%40%52%
British Identity31%38%29%
Good Health47%50%48%
UK Born95%64%88%
Good Education41%48%39%
Good Job55%61%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age50.444.148.5
ABC1 Class56%62%53%

Walthamstow ranks #552 for "Leave", #441 for "Right" and #584 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Walthamstow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Walthamstow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Walthamstow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Leyton and Wanstead

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leyton and Wanstead, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leyton and WansteadTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RedbridgeSnaresbrook7,434Ilford North and Wanstead2,4632,28038901260005,258
RedbridgeWanstead7,219Ilford North and Wanstead1,8952,64937601860005,106
Waltham ForestCann Hall8,623Leyton and Stratford8524,73636101500006,099
Waltham ForestCathall8,003Leyton and Stratford6634,75114701000005,661
Waltham ForestForest7,889Walthamstow7784,22443201450005,579
Waltham ForestGrove Green9,129Leyton and Stratford1,0404,71441602860006,456
Waltham ForestLeyton8,893Leyton and Stratford8204,91043401260006,290
Waltham ForestLeytonstone8,094Leyton and Stratford1,1173,97140602310005,725
 Total65,284 9,62832,2352,96101,35000046,174

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leyton and Wanstead seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Walthamstow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walthamstow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WalthamstowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Waltham ForestChapel End8,655Walthamstow9794,82220901050006,115
Waltham ForestHigh Street8,634Walthamstow7324,81832402270006,101
Waltham ForestHigham Hill8,091Walthamstow6504,8981270410005,716
Waltham ForestHoe Street8,459Walthamstow7924,71021702570005,976
Waltham ForestLea Bridge9,585Walthamstow1,0195,51813401010006,772
Waltham ForestMarkhouse8,384Walthamstow7314,92010601660005,923
Waltham ForestWilliam Morris8,124Walthamstow7044,68418201690005,739
Waltham ForestWood Street8,212Walthamstow1,1704,4238501240005,802
 Total68,144 6,77738,7931,38401,19000048,144

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walthamstow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Walthamstow

The new seat of Walthamstow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Walthamstow
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Waltham ForestChapel End8,001Walthamstow9794,82220901050006,115
Waltham ForestForest7,321Leyton and Wanstead7784,22443201450005,579
Waltham ForestHigh Street7,737Walthamstow7324,81832402270006,101
Waltham ForestHigham Hill8,197Walthamstow6504,8981270410005,716
Waltham ForestHoe Street7,960Walthamstow7924,71021702570005,976
Waltham ForestLea Bridge8,459Walthamstow1,0195,51813401010006,772
Waltham ForestMarkhouse7,735Walthamstow7314,92010601660005,923
Waltham ForestWilliam Morris7,597Walthamstow7044,68418201690005,739
Waltham ForestWood Street8,273Walthamstow1,1704,4238501240005,802
 Total71,280 7,55543,0171,81601,33500053,723

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Walthamstow.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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