Warminster and Shaftesbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Warminster and Shaftesbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrew Murrison  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 72,679
Turnout: 77.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,77163.7%
LAB12,01221.4%
LIB6,31911.3%
Green1,6813.0%
OTH3460.6%
UKIP20.0%
CON Majority23,75942.3%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Warminster and Shaftesbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Warminster and Shaftesbury constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right1° Right
National Position9° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity41%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born53%92%88%
Good Education41%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC42%52%51%
Average Age41.150.548.5
ABC1 Class51%54%53%

Warminster and Shaftesbury ranks #169 for "Leave", #152 for "Right" and #157 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Warminster and Shaftesbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Warminster and Shaftesbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Warminster and Shaftesbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dorset North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dorset North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dorset NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,532Dorset Mid1,2323531960650001,846
East DorsetCrane2,619Dorset Mid1,6391361100270001,912
East DorsetHandley Vale2,273Dorset Mid1,3861191310220001,658
East DorsetSt Leonards1,239Christchurch6951416304000903
East DorsetStour2,011Dorset Mid1,0102811540220001,467
East DorsetVerwood East4,627Christchurch2,7913222440190003,376
East DorsetVerwood West5,322Christchurch1,7831,4356440210003,883
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt1,057Christchurch52316772010000772
North DorsetAbbey3,086Dorset Mid1,67731813601200002,251
North DorsetBlackmore2,857Dorset West1,4863481810690002,084
North DorsetBlandford Central3,301Dorset Mid1,0226926020920002,408
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,704Dorset Mid7063711290360001,242
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,548Dorset Mid5591803710190001,129
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,598Dorset Mid6281303740340001,166
North DorsetBulbarrow1,551Warminster and Shaftesbury7502001060740001,130
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,298Warminster and Shaftesbury1,6222834790210002,405
North DorsetGillingham Town4,948Warminster and Shaftesbury1,9018287940860003,609
North DorsetHill Forts5,294Warminster and Shaftesbury2,67071431801610003,863
North DorsetLower Tarrants2,607Dorset Mid1,3482941750850001,902
North DorsetLydden Vale1,525Dorset West860111740680001,113
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,604Warminster and Shaftesbury1,92638618101370002,630
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman3,308Dorset Mid1,4486022810820002,413
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,733Warminster and Shaftesbury1,0596173000170001,993
North DorsetShaftesbury West3,120Warminster and Shaftesbury1,05246066401010002,277
North DorsetSturminster Newton3,411Warminster and Shaftesbury1,5813604550930002,489
North DorsetThe Beacon1,799Warminster and Shaftesbury1,118105750140001,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,413Warminster and Shaftesbury1,69644024601080002,490
 Total76,385 36,16810,3937,55501,60700055,723

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dorset North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Salisbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Salisbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SalisburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,382Salisbury1,76643416841500882,475
WiltshireAmesbury East4,828Salisbury2,4396921542111400213,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,727Salisbury1,753573127194900702,726
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,410Salisbury1,75057310040250062,494
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean829Salisbury43897181170034605
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,922Salisbury2,0964661591231400102,868
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,963Salisbury1,234154331110021,435
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,268Salisbury1,0441,185108281300122,390
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle125Warminster and Shaftesbury661742200091
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,757Salisbury1,96452513089340062,748
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton5,059Salisbury1,3301,9502071672700193,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,564Salisbury1,141937445552000102,608
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham4,029Salisbury1,55353174277360082,947
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford4,134Salisbury1,391720699391650093,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford4,163Salisbury1,71971838082130073,045
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,712Salisbury1,57877832116140072,714
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral4,664Salisbury1,6361,2333055417000133,411
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,933Salisbury1,3029522812325400652,877
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,576Salisbury1,561319674123700132,616
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,834Salisbury1,35351484231570072,804
WiltshireWinterslow3,013Salisbury1,8372518661500102,205
 Total72,892 30,95113,6195,9831,1911,1520041753,313

The full details of these calculations are given on the Salisbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wiltshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wiltshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wiltshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireEthandune3,553Warminster and Shaftesbury1,6555172980520082,530
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,464Salisbury89711024080031,042
WiltshireMere3,376Warminster and Shaftesbury1,42073296010000552,403
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,246Warminster and Shaftesbury1,59852710207300112,311
WiltshireSouthwick3,508Wiltshire West1,52474414105600332,498
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,440Wiltshire West771194320250041,026
WiltshireTisbury3,441Warminster and Shaftesbury1,714466144011500122,451
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft3,564Wiltshire West1,06990948905800122,537
WiltshireTrowbridge Central4,404Wiltshire West1,2231,217560011800173,135
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham3,199Wiltshire West1,42947332404200102,278
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove3,445Wiltshire West1,191994109010000592,453
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok3,838Wiltshire West1,53992514506600582,733
WiltshireTrowbridge Park3,714Wiltshire West1,48880524107000402,644
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft3,304Wiltshire West1,2614995560290072,352
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,620Warminster and Shaftesbury1,78653018205700232,578
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye4,040Warminster and Shaftesbury2,32335612404800252,876
WiltshireWarminster East4,198Warminster and Shaftesbury1,81481221509300552,989
WiltshireWarminster West4,113Warminster and Shaftesbury2,33333320103500262,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,275Warminster and Shaftesbury1,7783959105700112,332
WiltshireWestbury East3,914Warminster and Shaftesbury1,32878154609100402,786
WiltshireWestbury North3,574Warminster and Shaftesbury1,10283352805300282,544
WiltshireWestbury West4,375Warminster and Shaftesbury1,4791,32017009300523,114
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood292Wiltshire West117424205001207
 Total76,897 32,83914,5145,36001,4440059054,747

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wiltshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Warminster and Shaftesbury

The new seat of Warminster and Shaftesbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Warminster and Shaftesbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North DorsetBulbarrow1,533Dorset North7502001060740001,130
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,146Dorset North1,6222834790210002,405
North DorsetGillingham Town4,255Dorset North1,9018287940860003,609
North DorsetHill Forts4,891Dorset North2,67071431801610003,863
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,131Dorset North1,92638618101370002,630
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,867Dorset North1,0596173000170001,993
North DorsetShaftesbury West2,881Dorset North1,05246066401010002,277
North DorsetSturminster Newton2,987Dorset North1,5813604550930002,489
North DorsetThe Beacon1,528Dorset North1,118105750140001,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,350Dorset North1,69644024601080002,490
WiltshireEthandune3,540Wiltshire South West1,6555172980520082,530
WiltshireMere3,319Wiltshire South West1,42073296010000552,403
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle123Salisbury622040300089
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,198Wiltshire South West1,60252410227200112,313
WiltshireTisbury3,370Wiltshire South West1,714466144011500122,451
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,465Wiltshire South West1,78653018205700232,578
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye3,404Wiltshire South West2,32335612404800252,876
WiltshireWarminster East4,016Wiltshire South West1,81481221509300552,989
WiltshireWarminster West3,917Wiltshire South West2,33333320103500262,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,327Wiltshire South West1,7783959105700112,332
WiltshireWestbury East3,576Wiltshire South West1,32878154609100402,786
WiltshireWestbury North3,228Wiltshire South West1,10283352805300282,544
WiltshireWestbury West3,627Wiltshire South West1,4791,32017009300523,114
 Total72,679 35,77112,0126,31921,6810034656,131

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Warminster and Shaftesbury.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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