Warwick and Leamington: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Warwick and Leamington: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 77,569
Turnout: 80.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,26547.2%
LAB27,30744.0%
LIB3,2515.2%
Green1,3892.2%
UKIP8311.3%
CON Majority1,9583.2%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Warwick and Leamington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Warwick and Leamington constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right2° Right
National Position2° Int9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %42%59%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education39%35%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC53%46%51%
Average Age52.748.748.5
ABC1 Class52%49%53%

Warwick and Leamington ranks #493 for "Leave", #235 for "Right" and #407 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Warwick and Leamington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Warwick and Leamington been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Warwick and Leamington

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Kenilworth and Southam

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kenilworth and Southam, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Kenilworth and SouthamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RugbyDunsmore6,003Rugby and Southam2,8341,58112943570004,644
RugbyLeam Valley1,979Rugby and Southam1,169258372660001,532
Stratford On AvonBishop's Itchington3,139Rugby and Southam1,57658915151620002,429
Stratford On AvonHarbury2,749Rugby and Southam1,25941238239330002,125
Stratford On AvonKineton2,601Stratford-on-Avon1,358372122124370002,013
Stratford On AvonLong Itchington and Stockton3,034Rugby and Southam1,51957320127280002,348
Stratford On AvonNapton and Fenny Compton2,620Rugby and Southam1,31542715495350002,026
Stratford On AvonRed Horse1,291Stratford-on-Avon657201853916000998
Stratford On AvonSnitterfield13Stratford-on-Avon7210000010
Stratford On AvonSoutham North2,694Rugby and Southam1,136569200145340002,084
Stratford On AvonSoutham South2,714Rugby and Southam1,296537127107330002,100
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne East3,127Stratford-on-Avon1,401531345105370002,419
Stratford On AvonWellesbourne West2,453Stratford-on-Avon1,15643326623200001,898
WarwickAbbey5,518Coventry South and Kenilworth2,1761,141714591780004,268
WarwickArden4,526Warwick and Leamington2,705614972830003,501
WarwickManor1,368Warwick and Leamington5243221831280001,058
WarwickMilverton245Warwick and Leamington81604108000190
WarwickPark Hill6,931Coventry South and Kenilworth3,1141,44766041370005,362
WarwickRadford Semele2,171Rugby and Southam1,0594709615420001,682
WarwickSt John's6,956Coventry South and Kenilworth2,9301,498807221260005,383
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington4,190Warwick and Leamington1,9371,08312227740003,243
 Total66,322 31,20913,1204,9209301,13400051,313

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kenilworth and Southam seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Warwick and Leamington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Warwick and Leamington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Warwick and LeamingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WarwickAylesford4,588Warwick and Leamington1,8131,35411615430003,341
WarwickBishop's Tachbrook1,996Warwick and Leamington8305762116110001,454
WarwickBrunswick5,967Warwick and Leamington1,2932,648136202480004,345
WarwickBudbrooke4,704Warwick and Leamington2,2521,0183985300003,424
WarwickClarendon4,891Warwick and Leamington1,5531,59725831510003,562
WarwickCrown4,989Warwick and Leamington1,2551,841367136330003,632
WarwickEmscote4,829Warwick and Leamington1,3361,765191148750003,515
WarwickLeam4,130Warwick and Leamington1,0671,6976701770003,008
WarwickManor3,737Warwick and Leamington1,3841,0262773310002,721
WarwickMilverton4,393Warwick and Leamington1,4231,2834190730003,198
WarwickMyton and Heathcote4,101Warwick and Leamington1,73193621456480002,985
WarwickNewbold4,468Warwick and Leamington1,5321,4082153950003,253
WarwickSaltisford5,251Warwick and Leamington1,7371,81315951630003,823
WarwickSydenham5,246Warwick and Leamington1,3482,2807654620003,820
WarwickWhitnash6,860Warwick and Leamington2,0072,77312351410004,995
WarwickWoodloes4,087Warwick and Leamington1,4571,213130160150002,975
 Total74,237 24,01825,2282,8088011,19600054,051

The full details of these calculations are given on the Warwick and Leamington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Warwick and Leamington

The new seat of Warwick and Leamington is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Warwick and Leamington
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WarwickArden4,289Kenilworth and Southam2,705614972830003,501
WarwickAylesford4,618Warwick and Leamington1,8131,35411615430003,341
WarwickBishop's Tachbrook2,012Warwick and Leamington8305762116110001,454
WarwickBrunswick4,682Warwick and Leamington1,2932,648136202480004,345
WarwickBudbrooke4,705Warwick and Leamington2,2521,0183985300003,424
WarwickClarendon4,046Warwick and Leamington1,5531,59725831510003,562
WarwickCrown4,452Warwick and Leamington1,2551,841367136330003,632
WarwickEmscote4,575Warwick and Leamington1,3361,765191148750003,515
WarwickLeam3,401Warwick and Leamington1,0671,6976701770003,008
WarwickManor1,338Kenilworth and Southam5113611231160001,012
WarwickManor3,656Warwick and Leamington1,3979873373430002,767
WarwickMilverton233Kenilworth and Southam80712404000179
WarwickMilverton4,174Warwick and Leamington1,4241,2724360770003,209
WarwickMyton and Heathcote3,804Warwick and Leamington1,73193621456480002,985
WarwickNewbold4,029Warwick and Leamington1,5321,4082153950003,253
WarwickSaltisford4,968Warwick and Leamington1,7371,81315951630003,823
WarwickStoneleigh and Cubbington4,024Kenilworth and Southam1,9371,08312227740003,243
WarwickSydenham4,119Warwick and Leamington1,3482,2807654620003,820
WarwickWhitnash6,394Warwick and Leamington2,0072,77312351410004,995
WarwickWoodloes4,050Warwick and Leamington1,4571,213130160150002,975
 Total77,569 29,26527,3073,2518311,38900062,043

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Warwick and Leamington.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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