Watford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Watford: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,651
Turnout: 74.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,78543.8%
CON23,66143.6%
LIB4,7778.8%
UKIP1,3902.6%
Green6871.3%
LAB Majority1240.2%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Watford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Watford constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position5° Right8° Right
National Position4° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%57%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job59%53%51%
High SEC61%53%51%
Average Age51.449.448.5
ABC1 Class63%55%53%

Watford ranks #311 for "Leave", #210 for "Right" and #264 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Watford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Watford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Watford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hertfordshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hertfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hertfordshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DacorumAldbury and Wigginton1,846Hertfordshire South West8182852205660001,394
DacorumBerkhamsted Castle4,495Hertfordshire South West2,05455055212390003,396
DacorumBerkhamsted East4,620Hertfordshire South West1,84597446262020003,489
DacorumBerkhamsted West4,617Hertfordshire South West2,046839422111700003,488
DacorumBovingdon, Flaunden and Chipperfield6,884Hertfordshire South West3,5711,009358921710005,201
DacorumNorthchurch2,134Hertfordshire South West1,03430719714590001,611
DacorumTring Central4,016Hertfordshire South West1,750582505541420003,033
DacorumTring East2,252Hertfordshire South West1,10228325532290001,701
DacorumTring West and Rural4,030Hertfordshire South West1,642791422391520003,046
Three RiversCarpenders Park1,382Watford566324846630001,043
Three RiversChorleywood North and Sarratt5,297Hertfordshire South West3,09361521663150004,002
Three RiversChorleywood South and Maple Cross5,840Hertfordshire South West2,4091,18272225720004,410
Three RiversDickinsons4,940Hertfordshire South West1,9041,12256862750003,731
Three RiversDurrants4,637Hertfordshire South West1,7161,077546134290003,502
Three RiversMoor Park and Eastbury4,378Hertfordshire South West2,645503154140003,307
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,817Watford992802206118110002,129
Three RiversPenn and Mill End5,395Hertfordshire South West2,0861,289477176480004,076
Three RiversRickmansworth Town5,257Hertfordshire South West2,3731,07640553650003,972
Three RiversSouth Oxhey5,457Watford1,4821,968308341220004,121
 Total80,294 35,12815,5787,0791,2931,57400060,652

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hertfordshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Watford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Watford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WatfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond3,839St Albans1,41779432646180002,601
Three RiversCarpenders Park3,687Watford1,42978916011910002,498
Three RiversGade Valley3,057Hemel Hempstead1,16467519321190002,072
Three RiversLeavesden5,002St Albans1,8011,1423469280003,389
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,514Watford8536461337020001,704
WatfordCallowland5,642Watford1,4141,932278521470003,823
WatfordCentral6,181Watford1,5662,10936561870004,188
WatfordHolywell6,564Watford1,3182,75924697270004,447
WatfordLeggatts5,677Watford1,5361,95525465360003,846
WatfordMeriden5,957Watford1,7831,732330167250004,037
WatfordNascot5,775Watford2,1501,24344231480003,914
WatfordOxhey5,154Watford1,6521,27149210660003,491
WatfordPark5,867Watford2,1701,29842929490003,975
WatfordStanborough5,457Watford1,8021,28845775770003,699
WatfordTudor4,627Watford1,6771,07428754430003,135
WatfordVicarage6,273Watford1,2712,59530635430004,250
WatfordWoodside5,231St Albans1,7281,338292161250003,544
 Total86,504 26,73124,6405,3361,18572100058,613

The full details of these calculations are given on the Watford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Watford

The new seat of Watford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Watford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Three RiversCarpenders Park1,365Hertfordshire South West54430367501000965
Three RiversCarpenders Park3,641Watford1,45181017713530002,576
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,567Hertfordshire South West9757651799970002,025
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,290Watford8706831608960001,808
Three RiversSouth Oxhey4,537Hertfordshire South West1,4821,968308341220004,121
WatfordCallowland4,815Watford1,4141,932278521470003,823
WatfordCentral5,543Watford1,5662,10936561870004,188
WatfordHolywell5,624Watford1,3182,75924697270004,447
WatfordLeggatts5,518Watford1,5361,95525465360003,846
WatfordMeriden5,679Watford1,7831,732330167250004,037
WatfordNascot6,002Watford2,1501,24344231480003,914
WatfordOxhey5,054Watford1,6521,27149210660003,491
WatfordPark5,699Watford2,1701,29842929490003,975
WatfordStanborough5,189Watford1,8021,28845775770003,699
WatfordTudor4,430Watford1,6771,07428754430003,135
WatfordVicarage4,698Watford1,2712,59530635430004,250
 Total72,651 23,66123,7854,7771,39068700054,300

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Watford.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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