Weaver Vale: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Weaver Vale: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 72,496
Turnout: 74.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,75947.8%
LAB24,63845.8%
LIB2,2484.2%
Green9611.8%
UKIP1300.2%
OTH1070.2%
CON Majority1,1212.1%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Weaver Vale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Weaver Vale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position6° Left
National Position2° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%54%52%
British Identity32%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born77%92%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job55%49%51%
High SEC54%48%51%
Average Age45.648.648.5
ABC1 Class58%50%53%

Weaver Vale ranks #384 for "Leave", #342 for "Right" and #317 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weaver Vale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Weaver Vale been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Weaver Vale

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Eddisbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Eddisbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: EddisburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAudlem3,876Crewe and Nantwich2,0275887080610042,830
Cheshire EastBrereton Rural203Congleton11130601000148
Cheshire EastBunbury3,771Eddisbury2,000589766770062,754
Cheshire EastLeighton114Crewe and Nantwich472744000183
Cheshire EastWrenbury3,787Eddisbury2,0925173966490042,767
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,678Chester, City of7573536914310011,225
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton4,383Eddisbury1,8141,16396754400103,202
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon3,090Eddisbury1,4695142255420012,256
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy2,287Weaver Vale1,1254236235230021,670
Cheshire West and ChesterMalpas3,268Eddisbury1,70052046203400662,386
Cheshire West and ChesterTarporley3,621Eddisbury1,903513209780042,644
Cheshire West and ChesterTarvin and Kelsall6,790Eddisbury3,3101,1214418740054,959
Cheshire West and ChesterTattenhall3,567Eddisbury1,70366214780120022,606
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington4,371Weaver Vale1,7611,095178715700313,193
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin10,049Eddisbury3,1653,4213572909000177,340
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Swanlow and Dene7,401Eddisbury2,0332,6134722077000105,405
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Wharton8,015Eddisbury2,1773,10130814311000155,854
 Total70,271 29,19417,2502,8051,1117830017951,322

The full details of these calculations are given on the Eddisbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and NestonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,852Chester, City of8054963911230001,374
Cheshire West and ChesterEllesmere Port Town7,192Ellesmere Port and Neston1,0824,00633155590005,335
Cheshire West and ChesterElton3,577Weaver Vale1,2091,40922490002,653
Cheshire West and ChesterGrange3,759Ellesmere Port and Neston5102,194951240002,788
Cheshire West and ChesterLedsham and Manor6,226Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1642,310855820004,619
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton6,366Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1682,20527054260004,723
Cheshire West and ChesterNeston3,369Ellesmere Port and Neston9261,4378324290002,499
Cheshire West and ChesterNetherpool2,680Ellesmere Port and Neston4311,469334780001,988
Cheshire West and ChesterParkgate2,838Ellesmere Port and Neston1,121886691290002,106
Cheshire West and ChesterRossmore3,110Ellesmere Port and Neston6291,614117470002,308
Cheshire West and ChesterSt Paul's7,004Ellesmere Port and Neston1,4843,49510781290005,196
Cheshire West and ChesterStrawberry4,134Ellesmere Port and Neston1,3361,637138010003,067
Cheshire West and ChesterSutton7,103Ellesmere Port and Neston1,5793,46579121250005,269
Cheshire West and ChesterWhitby6,443Ellesmere Port and Neston1,8612,7445198260004,780
Cheshire West and ChesterWillaston and Thornton3,013Ellesmere Port and Neston1,44177119130002,235
 Total68,666 18,74630,13889382334000050,940

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ellesmere Port and Neston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tatton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tatton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TattonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,838Hazel Grove and Wilmslow1,567746337015001142,779
Cheshire EastChelford3,247Macclesfield1,74423928706200192,351
Cheshire EastHandforth7,305Hazel Grove and Wilmslow2,1602,241636069001805,286
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,500Altrincham and Knutsford1,828356129020000202,533
Cheshire EastKnutsford10,614Altrincham and Knutsford4,9141,8506540131001327,681
Cheshire EastMobberley3,670Altrincham and Knutsford1,75939046201400302,655
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,585Hazel Grove and Wilmslow1,46973925702900992,593
Cheshire EastWilmslow East3,269Hazel Grove and Wilmslow1,50847925504500792,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,964Hazel Grove and Wilmslow1,6741,0756302700292,868
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,897Hazel Grove and Wilmslow3,6581,315438022300825,716
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,718Weaver Vale3,9292,303565016200747,033
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,362Eddisbury1,49371317502500282,434
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,905Eddisbury1,0611,53217502200362,826
 Total67,874 28,76413,9784,43301,0240092249,121

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tatton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Weaver Vale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Weaver Vale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Weaver ValeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton6,450Eddisbury2,7021,884930520004,731
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,124Weaver Vale2,7512,08420401860005,225
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy841Weaver Vale41217717011000617
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,598Weaver Vale2,7971,75119101000004,839
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,908Weaver Vale1,4861,1641470700002,867
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,300Weaver Vale1,518757970480002,420
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,848Weaver Vale2,3531,6761780810004,288
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,102Weaver Vale1,9732,92017101440005,208
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin922Eddisbury29034631010000677
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath2,836Eddisbury7981,22152090002,080
HaltonBeechwood2,875Weaver Vale7771,223840260002,110
HaltonDaresbury3,517Weaver Vale1,522975700120002,579
HaltonHalton Lea5,228Widnes and Runcorn6113,20710060003,834
HaltonNorton North5,266Weaver Vale1,2442,4171870140003,862
HaltonNorton South5,308Weaver Vale7173,11059060003,892
HaltonWindmill Hill1,893Weaver Vale1851,154360120001,387
 Total69,016 22,13626,0661,627078700050,616

The full details of these calculations are given on the Weaver Vale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Weaver Vale

The new seat of Weaver Vale is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Weaver Vale
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterElton3,429Ellesmere Port and Neston1,2091,40922490002,653
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,333Weaver Vale2,7512,08420401860005,225
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy2,386Eddisbury1,1244395826250011,673
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy877Weaver Vale4131612199001614
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,553Weaver Vale2,7971,75119101000004,839
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,960Weaver Vale1,4861,1641470700002,867
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,523Weaver Vale1,518757970480002,420
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,496Tatton3,9292,303565016200747,033
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington4,421Eddisbury1,7601,185152305900133,199
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,915Weaver Vale2,3541,586204417900184,282
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,026Weaver Vale1,9732,92017101440005,208
HaltonBeechwood2,946Weaver Vale7771,223840260002,110
HaltonDaresbury3,426Weaver Vale1,522975700120002,579
HaltonNorton North4,961Weaver Vale1,2442,4171870140003,862
HaltonNorton South4,629Weaver Vale7173,11059060003,892
HaltonWindmill Hill1,615Weaver Vale1851,154360120001,387
 Total72,496 25,75924,6382,2481309610010753,843

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Weaver Vale.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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