Westmorland and Lonsdale: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 72,371
Turnout: 79.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,61346.0%
LIB24,29742.0%
LAB6,32310.9%
OTH3950.7%
UKIP1270.2%
Green830.1%
CON Majority2,3164.0%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Westmorland and Lonsdale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position4° Right6° Left
National Position3° Int2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%54%52%
British Identity48%28%29%
Good Health47%46%48%
UK Born42%92%88%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job49%49%51%
High SEC47%48%51%
Average Age43.948.648.5
ABC1 Class53%50%53%

Westmorland and Lonsdale ranks #419 for "Leave", #243 for "Right" and #428 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Westmorland and Lonsdale been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Westmorland and Lonsdale

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Barrow and Furness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Barrow and Furness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Barrow and FurnessTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island2,020Barrow and Furness4887701210860001,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral3,419Barrow and Furness6891,5001812690002,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,884Barrow and Furness1,8571,26111799120003,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,814Barrow and Furness1,8121,384544330003,296
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat3,844Barrow and Furness1,79781641600002,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,749Barrow and Furness8532,3114132170003,254
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,276Barrow and Furness1,4151,4977910002,929
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,622Barrow and Furness9162,20043970003,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,391Barrow and Furness1,4171,551241150003,008
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,982Barrow and Furness1,0632,1811215620003,414
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,702Barrow and Furness1,591924111000002,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,183Barrow and Furness1,0071,715413900002,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,154Barrow and Furness1,2701,49238010002,846
South LakelandBroughton1,718Barrow and Furness832230702430001,177
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley170Westmorland and Lonsdale76122702000117
South LakelandLow Furness1,333Barrow and Furness631157912213000914
South LakelandMid Furness3,089Barrow and Furness1,19544739930440002,115
South LakelandUlverston Central1,506Barrow and Furness5224076312260001,030
South LakelandUlverston East1,790Barrow and Furness5845116227420001,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,564Barrow and Furness608309930610001,071
South LakelandUlverston South1,471Barrow and Furness634295571220001,009
South LakelandUlverston Town1,403Barrow and Furness43942262038000961
South LakelandUlverston West1,392Barrow and Furness68620244021000953
 Total69,476 22,38222,5941,27996237500047,592

The full details of these calculations are given on the Barrow and Furness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Penrith and The Border

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Penrith and The Border, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Penrith and The BorderTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589Penrith and Solway83712823441000031,135
AllerdaleWigton4,641Penrith and Solway1,2241,654572877400133,309
CarlisleBrampton3,697Carlisle1,50168118714111600122,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,668Carlisle744393343120041,190
CarlisleHayton1,692Carlisle64842662271600271,206
CarlisleIrthing1,582Carlisle71525434141040071,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,226Carlisle1,358671781433800132,301
CarlisleLyne1,533Carlisle82611920161080051,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,715Carlisle1,691670881226600132,650
EdenAlston Moor1,655Penrith and Solway62637876383500271,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,025Westmorland and Lonsdale3343083324140018731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,395Westmorland and Lonsdale360251352218004996
EdenAskham1,139Penrith and Solway528101158221002812
EdenBrough1,051Westmorland and Lonsdale396280311780019751
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114Penrith and Solway6907015116002794
EdenDacre1,132Penrith and Solway3732171839150010807
EdenEamont1,160Penrith and Solway6901141532002826
EdenGreystoke1,117Penrith and Solway6545851622007798
EdenHartside1,013Penrith and Solway483178296160011723
EdenHesket2,470Penrith and Solway1,3572827622900161,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052Westmorland and Lonsdale96532497371900231,465
EdenKirkby Thore1,235Penrith and Solway454367241230022882
EdenKirkoswald1,171Penrith and Solway427307571190023834
EdenLangwathby1,243Penrith and Solway549281201080018886
EdenLazonby1,136Penrith and Solway64513317013002810
EdenLong Marton965Penrith and Solway5767716212006689
EdenMorland1,040Penrith and Solway388291212220019743
EdenOrton with Tebay1,075Westmorland and Lonsdale6356843910002767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223Penrith and Solway59713812364004872
EdenPenrith East2,138Penrith and Solway87430730423110071,526
EdenPenrith North3,338Penrith and Solway1,24763645219200082,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,078Penrith and Solway215261275141004770
EdenPenrith South2,001Penrith and Solway77145215726400171,427
EdenPenrith West2,579Penrith and Solway75074929722140081,840
EdenRavenstonedale783Westmorland and Lonsdale510191648002559
EdenShap1,108Penrith and Solway597134301311005790
EdenSkelton1,163Penrith and Solway727682319002830
EdenUllswater1,119Penrith and Solway684475219006799
EdenWarcop1,081Westmorland and Lonsdale4332771415140019772
 Total65,142 28,07912,1693,6401,1431,0310041246,474

The full details of these calculations are given on the Penrith and The Border seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Westmorland and LonsdaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere3,207Westmorland and Lonsdale1,1292021,1480000182,497
South LakelandArnside and Beetham3,261Westmorland and Lonsdale1,2381711,122000082,539
South LakelandBurneside1,564Westmorland and Lonsdale578139497000041,218
South LakelandBurton and Holme3,007Westmorland and Lonsdale1,264235834000072,340
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West1,489Westmorland and Lonsdale61150494000051,160
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley1,068Westmorland and Lonsdale4801833000003831
South LakelandCrooklands1,736Westmorland and Lonsdale61346688000031,350
South LakelandGrange North1,710Westmorland and Lonsdale65786582000051,330
South LakelandGrange South1,378Westmorland and Lonsdale64944377000021,072
South LakelandHawkshead1,352Westmorland and Lonsdale54428475000051,052
South LakelandHolker1,601Westmorland and Lonsdale515966250000101,246
South LakelandKendal Castle1,378Westmorland and Lonsdale393104574000031,074
South LakelandKendal Far Cross1,847Westmorland and Lonsdale410241783000041,438
South LakelandKendal Fell1,779Westmorland and Lonsdale439266674000051,384
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill1,410Westmorland and Lonsdale414148534000031,099
South LakelandKendal Highgate1,814Westmorland and Lonsdale445296667000031,411
South LakelandKendal Kirkland1,695Westmorland and Lonsdale313281723000021,319
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet1,631Westmorland and Lonsdale397203664000051,269
South LakelandKendal Nether1,757Westmorland and Lonsdale480162722000041,368
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland1,640Westmorland and Lonsdale544133594000051,276
South LakelandKendal Parks1,684Westmorland and Lonsdale540148615000071,310
South LakelandKendal Romney1,735Westmorland and Lonsdale430257660000031,350
South LakelandKendal Stonecross1,504Westmorland and Lonsdale428159581000031,171
South LakelandKendal Strickland1,555Westmorland and Lonsdale412184609000051,210
South LakelandKendal Underley1,821Westmorland and Lonsdale41326762000001171,417
South LakelandLevens1,636Westmorland and Lonsdale64130602000011,274
South LakelandLyth Valley1,776Westmorland and Lonsdale83858483000031,382
South LakelandMilnthorpe1,736Westmorland and Lonsdale54765736000041,352
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,988Westmorland and Lonsdale2,0422051,6260000103,883
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel1,518Westmorland and Lonsdale63828511000051,182
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland1,675Westmorland and Lonsdale50849740000071,304
South LakelandWhinfell1,526Westmorland and Lonsdale66535482000061,188
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck1,717Westmorland and Lonsdale791335000000121,336
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North1,651Westmorland and Lonsdale62474583000051,286
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South1,802Westmorland and Lonsdale76077559000091,405
South LakelandWindermere Town1,743Westmorland and Lonsdale514166670000071,357
 Total66,391 22,9044,78423,684000030851,680

The full details of these calculations are given on the Westmorland and Lonsdale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale

The new seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,018Penrith and The Border3343083324140018731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,324Penrith and The Border360251352218004996
EdenBrough1,035Penrith and The Border396280311780019751
EdenKirkby Stephen2,011Penrith and The Border96532497371900231,465
EdenOrton with Tebay1,061Penrith and The Border6356843910002767
EdenRavenstonedale753Penrith and The Border510191648002559
EdenWarcop1,081Penrith and The Border4332771415140019772
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere2,783Westmorland and Lonsdale1,1292021,1480000182,497
South LakelandArnside and Beetham3,394Westmorland and Lonsdale1,2381711,122000082,539
South LakelandBurneside1,625Westmorland and Lonsdale578139497000041,218
South LakelandBurton and Holme2,901Westmorland and Lonsdale1,264235834000072,340
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West1,531Westmorland and Lonsdale61150494000051,160
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley174Barrow and Furness7744900000130
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley1,090Westmorland and Lonsdale4792630802003818
South LakelandCrooklands1,761Westmorland and Lonsdale61346688000031,350
South LakelandGrange North1,754Westmorland and Lonsdale65786582000051,330
South LakelandGrange South1,488Westmorland and Lonsdale64944377000021,072
South LakelandHawkshead1,406Westmorland and Lonsdale54428475000051,052
South LakelandHolker1,522Westmorland and Lonsdale515966250000101,246
South LakelandKendal Castle1,443Westmorland and Lonsdale393104574000031,074
South LakelandKendal Far Cross1,651Westmorland and Lonsdale410241783000041,438
South LakelandKendal Fell1,572Westmorland and Lonsdale439266674000051,384
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill1,504Westmorland and Lonsdale414148534000031,099
South LakelandKendal Highgate1,577Westmorland and Lonsdale445296667000031,411
South LakelandKendal Kirkland1,591Westmorland and Lonsdale313281723000021,319
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet1,525Westmorland and Lonsdale397203664000051,269
South LakelandKendal Nether1,602Westmorland and Lonsdale480162722000041,368
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland1,689Westmorland and Lonsdale544133594000051,276
South LakelandKendal Parks1,586Westmorland and Lonsdale540148615000071,310
South LakelandKendal Romney1,718Westmorland and Lonsdale430257660000031,350
South LakelandKendal Stonecross1,586Westmorland and Lonsdale428159581000031,171
South LakelandKendal Strickland1,498Westmorland and Lonsdale412184609000051,210
South LakelandKendal Underley1,597Westmorland and Lonsdale41326762000001171,417
South LakelandLevens1,688Westmorland and Lonsdale64130602000011,274
South LakelandLyth Valley1,812Westmorland and Lonsdale83858483000031,382
South LakelandMilnthorpe1,626Westmorland and Lonsdale54765736000041,352
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,705Westmorland and Lonsdale2,0422051,6260000103,883
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel1,550Westmorland and Lonsdale63828511000051,182
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland1,636Westmorland and Lonsdale50849740000071,304
South LakelandWhinfell1,529Westmorland and Lonsdale66535482000061,188
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck1,520Westmorland and Lonsdale791335000000121,336
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North1,538Westmorland and Lonsdale62474583000051,286
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South1,365Westmorland and Lonsdale76077559000091,405
South LakelandWindermere Town1,551Westmorland and Lonsdale514166670000071,357
 Total72,371 26,6136,32324,297127830039557,838

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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