Widnes and Runcorn: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Widnes and Runcorn: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Derek Twigg  (LAB)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 75,381
Turnout: 70.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB39,32373.7%
CON11,32321.2%
UKIP1,4872.8%
LIB9061.7%
OTH3080.6%
Green60.0%
LAB Majority28,00052.5%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Widnes and Runcorn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Widnes and Runcorn constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position17° Left6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health47%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education44%37%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC53%48%51%
Average Age53.948.648.5
ABC1 Class51%50%53%

Widnes and Runcorn ranks #205 for "Leave", #561 for "Right" and #337 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Widnes and Runcorn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Widnes and Runcorn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Widnes and Runcorn

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Halton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Halton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HaltonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HaltonAppleton5,281Widnes and Runcorn3643,02123440001083,560
HaltonBirchfield5,363Widnes and Runcorn1,5111,9953466000103,616
HaltonBroadheath4,740Widnes and Runcorn2952,8071266000153,195
HaltonDitton5,752Widnes and Runcorn7253,0385545000143,877
HaltonFarnworth5,661Widnes and Runcorn1,4592,1936684000143,816
HaltonGrange5,354Widnes and Runcorn6232,6829120700063,609
HaltonHale1,423Widnes and Runcorn201746560002960
HaltonHalton Brook5,106Widnes and Runcorn5592,66079135000103,443
HaltonHalton Castle4,741Widnes and Runcorn4402,53870121000273,196
HaltonHalton View5,214Widnes and Runcorn7502,6004311300093,515
HaltonHeath4,531Widnes and Runcorn1,1381,61420182000193,054
HaltonHough Green5,292Widnes and Runcorn6942,801243900093,567
HaltonKingsway5,059Widnes and Runcorn6042,56267163000153,411
HaltonMersey5,724Widnes and Runcorn9172,65894172000173,858
HaltonRiverside4,215Widnes and Runcorn4322,20132144000332,842
 Total73,456 10,71236,1168961,48700030849,519

The full details of these calculations are given on the Halton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Weaver Vale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Weaver Vale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Weaver ValeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton6,450Eddisbury2,7021,884930520004,731
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,124Weaver Vale2,7512,08420401860005,225
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy841Weaver Vale41217717011000617
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,598Weaver Vale2,7971,75119101000004,839
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,908Weaver Vale1,4861,1641470700002,867
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,300Weaver Vale1,518757970480002,420
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,848Weaver Vale2,3531,6761780810004,288
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,102Weaver Vale1,9732,92017101440005,208
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin922Eddisbury29034631010000677
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath2,836Eddisbury7981,22152090002,080
HaltonBeechwood2,875Weaver Vale7771,223840260002,110
HaltonDaresbury3,517Weaver Vale1,522975700120002,579
HaltonHalton Lea5,228Widnes and Runcorn6113,20710060003,834
HaltonNorton North5,266Weaver Vale1,2442,4171870140003,862
HaltonNorton South5,308Weaver Vale7173,11059060003,892
HaltonWindmill Hill1,893Weaver Vale1851,154360120001,387
 Total69,016 22,13626,0661,627078700050,616

The full details of these calculations are given on the Weaver Vale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Widnes and Runcorn

The new seat of Widnes and Runcorn is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Widnes and Runcorn
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HaltonAppleton4,863Halton3643,02123440001083,560
HaltonBirchfield5,292Halton1,5111,9953466000103,616
HaltonBroadheath4,797Halton2952,8071266000153,195
HaltonDitton5,456Halton7253,0385545000143,877
HaltonFarnworth6,415Halton1,4592,1936684000143,816
HaltonGrange4,839Halton6232,6829120700063,609
HaltonHale1,497Halton201746560002960
HaltonHalton Brook4,790Halton5592,66079135000103,443
HaltonHalton Castle4,568Halton4402,53870121000273,196
HaltonHalton Lea4,513Weaver Vale6113,20710060003,834
HaltonHalton View5,181Halton7502,6004311300093,515
HaltonHeath4,634Halton1,1381,61420182000193,054
HaltonHough Green5,155Halton6942,801243900093,567
HaltonKingsway4,796Halton6042,56267163000153,411
HaltonMersey5,062Halton9172,65894172000173,858
HaltonRiverside3,523Halton4322,20132144000332,842
 Total75,381 11,32339,3239061,48760030853,353

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Widnes and Runcorn.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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