Wolverhampton West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wolverhampton West: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Eleanor Smith  (LAB)
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate: 77,373
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB24,93549.0%
CON22,59244.4%
UKIP1,3322.6%
LIB1,0122.0%
Green7261.4%
OTH3080.6%
LAB Majority2,3434.6%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Wolverhampton West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Wolverhampton West constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position2° Left2° Right
National Position5° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%59%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC51%46%51%
Average Age47.148.748.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Wolverhampton West ranks #249 for "Leave", #380 for "Right" and #246 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wolverhampton West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wolverhampton West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Wolverhampton West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Wolverhampton North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wolverhampton North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wolverhampton North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WolverhamptonBushbury North8,209Wolverhampton West2,2352,272134209780004,928
WolverhamptonBushbury South and Low Hill10,204Wolverhampton East and Willenhall2,1003,74329204510006,127
WolverhamptonFallings Park8,748Wolverhampton East and Willenhall2,2152,69649266260005,252
WolverhamptonHeath Town9,319Wolverhampton East and Willenhall1,8933,39572196390005,595
WolverhamptonOxley8,705Wolverhampton West2,1142,7221451341120005,227
WolverhamptonWednesfield North7,697Wolverhampton East and Willenhall2,0142,17444306840004,622
WolverhamptonWednesfield South7,917Wolverhampton East and Willenhall2,1232,27996164900004,752
 Total60,799 14,69419,2815691,47948000036,503

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wolverhampton North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wolverhampton South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wolverhampton South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wolverhampton South EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DudleyCoseley East10,049Wolverhampton South and Coseley2,1852,48785369900005,216
WolverhamptonBilston East10,786Wolverhampton South and Coseley1,8873,27927386190005,598
WolverhamptonBilston North9,343Wolverhampton South and Coseley1,7722,72430243790004,848
WolverhamptonBlakenhall9,481Wolverhampton West1,4623,353042630004,920
WolverhamptonEast Park9,995Wolverhampton South and Coseley1,7223,042222881140005,188
WolverhamptonEttingshall10,831Wolverhampton South and Coseley1,6653,78930112260005,622
WolverhamptonSpring Vale9,466Wolverhampton South and Coseley1,9312,463254236300004,914
 Total69,951 12,62421,1374481,67642100036,306

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wolverhampton South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wolverhampton South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wolverhampton South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wolverhampton South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WolverhamptonGraiseley8,638Wolverhampton West1,9203,8056013611900576,097
WolverhamptonMerry Hill8,571Wolverhampton West2,8682,7071132851600606,049
WolverhamptonPark8,285Wolverhampton West2,1393,2541217521500435,847
WolverhamptonPenn8,961Wolverhampton West3,0632,8211911384800626,323
WolverhamptonSt Peter's9,232Wolverhampton East and Willenhall1,9324,310506510700506,514
WolverhamptonTettenhall Regis8,418Wolverhampton West3,3822,2131171711500425,940
WolverhamptonTettenhall Wightwick7,899Wolverhampton West3,4091,7881311426000445,574
 Total60,004 18,71320,8987831,0125800035842,344

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wolverhampton South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wolverhampton West

The new seat of Wolverhampton West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Wolverhampton West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WolverhamptonBlakenhall7,892Wolverhampton South East1,4623,353042630004,920
WolverhamptonBushbury North8,812Wolverhampton North East2,2352,272134209780004,928
WolverhamptonGraiseley7,635Wolverhampton South West1,9203,8056013611900576,097
WolverhamptonMerry Hill9,118Wolverhampton South West2,8682,7071132851600606,049
WolverhamptonOxley8,766Wolverhampton North East2,1142,7221451341120005,227
WolverhamptonPark7,415Wolverhampton South West2,1393,2541217521500435,847
WolverhamptonPenn9,759Wolverhampton South West3,0632,8211911384800626,323
WolverhamptonTettenhall Regis9,137Wolverhampton South West3,3822,2131171711500425,940
WolverhamptonTettenhall Wightwick8,839Wolverhampton South West3,4091,7881311426000445,574
 Total77,373 22,59224,9351,0121,3327260030850,905

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wolverhampton West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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