Worthing East and Shoreham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Worthing East and Shoreham: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Tim Loughton  (CON)
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 71,723
Turnout: 74.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,98648.9%
LAB20,88239.3%
LIB2,5254.8%
UKIP1,4442.7%
Green1,2742.4%
MIN5731.1%
OTH4320.8%
CON Majority5,1049.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Worthing East and Shoreham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Worthing East and Shoreham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health41%49%48%
UK Born92%88%88%
Good Education37%43%39%
Good Job53%56%51%
High SEC58%57%51%
Average Age54.049.248.5
ABC1 Class58%60%53%

Worthing East and Shoreham ranks #307 for "Leave", #291 for "Right" and #265 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Worthing East and Shoreham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Worthing East and Shoreham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Worthing East and Shoreham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Worthing East and Shoreham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worthing East and Shoreham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worthing East and ShorehamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AdurBuckingham2,993Worthing East and Shoreham1,207711842451015142,106
AdurChurchill3,463Worthing East and Shoreham1,2428381941241401742,433
AdurCokeham3,220Worthing East and Shoreham93894722711116013132,265
AdurEastbrook3,604Worthing East and Shoreham1,1011,194102754107142,534
AdurHillside3,323Worthing East and Shoreham1,203916561043509132,336
AdurManor3,291Worthing East and Shoreham1,3288018970140482,314
AdurMarine3,558Worthing East and Shoreham877862603911803072392,502
AdurMash Barn3,556Worthing East and Shoreham1,0371,1201791371201052,500
AdurPeverel3,513Worthing East and Shoreham1,199987115123290992,471
AdurSouthlands3,084Worthing East and Shoreham9191,01987923408102,169
AdurSouthwick Green3,552Worthing East and Shoreham1,2281,02173569905152,497
AdurSt Mary's3,495Worthing East and Shoreham1,0361,18785311040592,457
AdurSt Nicolas2,995Worthing East and Shoreham1,21968086218201082,106
AdurWidewater4,503Worthing East and Shoreham1,5401,30312115226012123,166
WorthingBroadwater7,349Worthing East and Shoreham2,4602,11229196150044155,168
WorthingGaisford7,370Worthing East and Shoreham2,5092,08428054211027175,182
WorthingOffington6,079Worthing East and Shoreham2,7841,1601565563039174,274
WorthingSelden6,594Worthing East and Shoreham2,1591,94024080175032104,636
 Total75,542 25,98620,8822,5251,4441,274057343253,116

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worthing East and Shoreham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Worthing East and Shoreham

The new seat of Worthing East and Shoreham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Worthing East and Shoreham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AdurBuckingham3,039Worthing East and Shoreham1,207711842451015142,106
AdurChurchill3,292Worthing East and Shoreham1,2428381941241401742,433
AdurCokeham3,286Worthing East and Shoreham93894722711116013132,265
AdurEastbrook3,308Worthing East and Shoreham1,1011,194102754107142,534
AdurHillside3,301Worthing East and Shoreham1,203916561043509132,336
AdurManor3,204Worthing East and Shoreham1,3288018970140482,314
AdurMarine3,401Worthing East and Shoreham877862603911803072392,502
AdurMash Barn3,248Worthing East and Shoreham1,0371,1201791371201052,500
AdurPeverel3,353Worthing East and Shoreham1,199987115123290992,471
AdurSouthlands2,862Worthing East and Shoreham9191,01987923408102,169
AdurSouthwick Green3,341Worthing East and Shoreham1,2281,02173569905152,497
AdurSt Mary's3,526Worthing East and Shoreham1,0361,18785311040592,457
AdurSt Nicolas3,027Worthing East and Shoreham1,21968086218201082,106
AdurWidewater4,455Worthing East and Shoreham1,5401,30312115226012123,166
WorthingBroadwater6,574Worthing East and Shoreham2,4602,11229196150044155,168
WorthingGaisford6,495Worthing East and Shoreham2,5092,08428054211027175,182
WorthingOffington6,291Worthing East and Shoreham2,7841,1601565563039174,274
WorthingSelden5,720Worthing East and Shoreham2,1591,94024080175032104,636
 Total71,723 25,98620,8822,5251,4441,274057343253,116

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Worthing East and Shoreham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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