Wrexham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wrexham: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ian Lucas  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 72,138
Turnout: 71.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,09848.9%
CON22,43143.7%
Plaid2,3334.5%
LIB1,2412.4%
UKIP2470.5%
LAB Majority2,6675.2%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Wrexham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Wrexham constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity35%26%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born82%95%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job57%46%51%
High SEC56%46%51%
Average Age46.549.648.5
ABC1 Class61%47%53%

Wrexham ranks #204 for "Leave", #417 for "Right" and #332 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wrexham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wrexham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Wrexham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clwyd South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,763Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North40429524170476001,216
DenbighshireLlandrillo865Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North217118177023700596
DenbighshireLlangollen3,099Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North86987773290290002,138
WrexhamBronington2,376Wrexham1,12047135507001,638
WrexhamBrymbo3,084Wrexham1,1029362010058002,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,641Wrexham3197064910049001,133
WrexhamCefn3,870Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North8391,6571987067002,669
WrexhamChirk North1,868Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North398802760021001,288
WrexhamChirk South1,530Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North41358944009001,055
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,572Wrexham6941,40341500275002,463
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5734261421097001,131
WrexhamEsclusham2,105Wrexham6477131554022001,451
WrexhamGwenfro1,346Wrexham144701252003700927
WrexhamJohnstown2,491Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North723860470062001,719
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,559Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North523509132010001,075
WrexhamMarchwiel1,790Wrexham717483022012001,234
WrexhamMinera1,877Wrexham4447551231053001,295
WrexhamNew Broughton2,606Wrexham5651,1451632038001,796
WrexhamOverton2,509Wrexham1,217368134605001,730
WrexhamPant1,790Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4067222950028001,235
WrexhamPenycae1,670Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North352705132061001,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,893Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North495749203309001,306
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,482Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North223732521041001,022
WrexhamPonciau3,662Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North;
Wrexham
7711,429164370124002,525
WrexhamRuabon2,251Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4698512250205001,552
 Total54,341 14,64419,00273180102,2930037,471

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wrexham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wrexham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WrexhamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon2,254Wrexham3681,093320076001,569
WrexhamBorras Park1,680Wrexham681402720014001,169
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,457Wrexham801851350024001,711
WrexhamCartrefle1,699Wrexham61153050037001,183
WrexhamErddig1,587Wrexham770254210060001,105
WrexhamGarden Village1,467Wrexham344620390019001,022
WrexhamGresford East and West1,914Wrexham74551862008001,333
WrexhamGrosvenor1,908Wrexham4317181020077001,328
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,382Wrexham6701,533820069002,354
WrexhamGwersyllt North2,053Wrexham369886400168001,427
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,181Wrexham4837361400284001,517
WrexhamHermitage1,566Wrexham451557220060001,090
WrexhamHolt2,376Wrexham1,062556180018001,654
WrexhamLittle Acton1,643Wrexham608423600053001,144
WrexhamLlay3,428Wrexham8911,425240046002,386
WrexhamMaesydre1,404Wrexham50938060002800977
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,670Wrexham77732260003001,162
WrexhamOffa1,852Wrexham692491620045001,290
WrexhamQueensway1,916Wrexham469685900170001,333
WrexhamRhosnesni2,673Wrexham9177572200165001,861
WrexhamRossett2,282Wrexham1,24230733006001,588
WrexhamSmithfield1,919Wrexham60069450037001,336
WrexhamStansty1,502Wrexham234773130026001,046
WrexhamWhitegate1,980Wrexham387781400206001,378
WrexhamWynnstay1,626Wrexham20986340055001,131
 Total50,419 15,32117,155864001,7540035,094

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wrexham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wrexham

The new seat of Wrexham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Wrexham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon2,184Wrexham3681,093320076001,569
WrexhamBorras Park1,628Wrexham681402720014001,169
WrexhamBronington2,540Clwyd South1,12047135507001,638
WrexhamBrymbo2,982Clwyd South1,1029362010058002,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,482Clwyd South3197064910049001,133
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,381Wrexham801851350024001,711
WrexhamCartrefle1,646Wrexham61153050037001,183
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,482Clwyd South6941,40341500275002,463
WrexhamErddig1,538Wrexham770254210060001,105
WrexhamEsclusham2,023Clwyd South6477131554022001,451
WrexhamGarden Village1,422Wrexham344620390019001,022
WrexhamGresford East and West1,855Wrexham74551862008001,333
WrexhamGrosvenor1,849Wrexham4317181020077001,328
WrexhamGwenfro1,214Clwyd South144701252003700927
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,277Wrexham6701,533820069002,354
WrexhamGwersyllt North1,990Wrexham369886400168001,427
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,114Wrexham4837361400284001,517
WrexhamHermitage1,518Wrexham451557220060001,090
WrexhamHolt2,303Wrexham1,062556180018001,654
WrexhamLittle Acton1,592Wrexham608423600053001,144
WrexhamLlay3,322Wrexham8911,425240046002,386
WrexhamMaesydre1,361Wrexham50938060002800977
WrexhamMarchwiel1,824Clwyd South717483022012001,234
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,618Wrexham77732260003001,162
WrexhamMinera1,843Clwyd South4447551231053001,295
WrexhamNew Broughton2,649Clwyd South5651,1451632038001,796
WrexhamOffa1,795Wrexham692491620045001,290
WrexhamOverton2,601Clwyd South1,217368134605001,730
WrexhamPonciau636Clwyd South14126230702300463
WrexhamQueensway1,857Wrexham469685900170001,333
WrexhamRhosnesni2,590Wrexham9177572200165001,861
WrexhamRossett2,211Wrexham1,24230733006001,588
WrexhamSmithfield1,860Wrexham60069450037001,336
WrexhamStansty1,456Wrexham234773130026001,046
WrexhamWhitegate1,919Wrexham387781400206001,378
WrexhamWynnstay1,576Wrexham20986340055001,131
 Total72,138 22,43125,0981,24124702,3330051,350

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wrexham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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