Aberconwy: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Aberconwy: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Guto Bebb  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 45,251
Turnout: 71.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON14,33744.6%41.5%
LAB13,70242.6%41.6%
Plaid3,1709.9%9.9%
LIB9412.9%3.0%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
Green00.0%1.1%
CON Majority6352.0%Pred Maj 0.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
49%
LAB
51%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Aberconwy : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberconwy constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left10° Left
National Position1° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %52%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age53.349.648.5
ABC1 Class49%47%53%

Aberconwy ranks #363 for "Leave", #409 for "Right" and #424 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberconwy: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Aberconwy: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Aberconwy

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Aberconwy at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Aberconwy. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

AberconwyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed201214200003070
ConwyBryn201203190002260
ConwyCaerhun20123520000168346
ConwyCapelulo2012906935000409
ConwyConwy2012322618000233650
ConwyCraig-y-Don20127150000617825
ConwyCrwst20120025400179317
ConwyDeganwy20121,0230217000730
ConwyEglwysbach201200000-10
ConwyGogarth2012565538000220580
ConwyGower201200000-10
ConwyLlansanffraid2012247040000677
ConwyMarl20123823241,5920000
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2012442436131000628
ConwyPandy2012833260002080
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2012574050000316
ConwyPenrhyn2012874000001,730
ConwyPensarn2012790000368366
ConwyTrefriw201229103000132210
ConwyTudno201238665900001,236
ConwyUwch Conwy201200000-10

AberconwyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed99422200004800702
ConwyBryn1,478061100043301,044
ConwyCaerhun1,60946200002204541,136
ConwyCapelulo1,1991269749000574846
ConwyConwy3,2904107870002978282,322
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,76564700005587471,952
ConwyCrwst1,71700411002895121,212
ConwyDeganwy3,1741,16402470008302,241
ConwyEglwysbach1,227000008660866
ConwyGogarth3,1086516200002546692,194
ConwyGower966000006820682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,7793220520008821,256
ConwyMarl3,1293673111,53000002,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,8295395321600007661,997
ConwyPandy1,46313954600034801,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,31912085200006651,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,952936000001,8542,790
ConwyPensarn2,28315700007307261,613
ConwyTrefriw1,00243154000197313707
ConwyTudno4,06248582900001,5542,868
ConwyUwch Conwy1,193000008420842
 Total45,5386,7905,3392,449006,19611,37432,148

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

AberconwyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed98833617626001630701
ConwyBryn1,469193648280017501,044
ConwyCaerhun1,599684328120011101,135
ConwyCapelulo1,1914123692200440847
ConwyConwy3,2699491,186140017402,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,7481,053675340019001,952
ConwyCrwst1,706433464870022801,212
ConwyDeganwy3,1541,46865654006302,241
ConwyEglwysbach1,2193132225003260866
ConwyGogarth3,0881,061919960011702,193
ConwyGower9602022163002610682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,76869750212004501,256
ConwyMarl3,1099098693090012102,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,81187099275005901,996
ConwyPandy1,454271601230013801,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,3044611,08814007401,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,9271,69895656008102,791
ConwyPensarn2,26964771210025201,612
ConwyTrefriw99624134617001030707
ConwyTudno4,0361,1641,564380010202,868
ConwyUwch Conwy1,18527221215003430842
 Total45,53814,33413,701941003,170032,148

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberconwy

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberconwy.

AberconwyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988314169262181630701
ConwyBryn1,46916363729291117501,044
ConwyCaerhun1,59964931713331311101,136
ConwyCapelulo1,191386360222510440847
ConwyConwy3,2698771,16215682617402,322
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,74899265535572219001,951
ConwyCrwst1,70639545288361422801,213
ConwyDeganwy3,1541,3986335566256302,240
ConwyEglwysbach1,219286213525103260865
ConwyGogarth3,08899389797642511702,193
ConwyGower96018120932082610682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,7686584891337144501,256
ConwyMarl3,109840847310652512102,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,8118089727658235901,996
ConwyPandy1,45423959124301213801,034
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,3044101,0711548197401,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,9271,6119285782328102,791
ConwyPensarn2,2695976962471825201,612
ConwyTrefriw996219339172181030707
ConwyTudno4,0361,0751,53540843310202,869
ConwyUwch Conwy1,1852462031525103430842
 Total45,53813,33713,3759579413663,170032,146

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)