Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Andrew Bowie  (CON)
County/Area: Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate: 72,477
Turnout: 71.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON24,70447.9%47.9%
SNP16,75432.5%32.5%
LAB5,70611.1%11.1%
LIB4,4618.6%8.6%
CON Majority7,95015.4%Pred Maj 15.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
77%
SNP
22%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerCONSNPCON
Economic Position2° Left14° Left
National Position12° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health59%52%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job55%49%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age49.848.748.5
ABC1 Class59%50%53%

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine ranks #523 for "Leave", #391 for "Right" and #519 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Aberdeenshire West and KincardineActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside20121,3322411,183001,0910
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside20121,18527875701149560
AberdeenshireEast Garioch201235924051906601,140338
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford20121,091075202561,430593
AberdeenshireMearns20121,242352839001,324431
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine2012782853879001,40146
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside20121,3894046290255978465
AberdeenshireWest Garioch2012651086502831,3270
AberdeenshireWesthill and District20121,163429954001,4160

Aberdeenshire West and KincardineTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,9952,1893961,944001,79306,322
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,7932,2265221,42202141,79606,180
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,62720413629403746471921,847
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,452642044301518423492,427
AberdeenshireMearns11,8062,4616971,663002,6248548,299
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,2201,5571,6981,750002,790927,887
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside11,5412,7357951,23905021,9269168,113
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,413500066402171,01802,399
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,5972,3938831,963002,91308,152
 Total73,44414,9075,12711,38201,45816,3492,40351,626

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Aberdeenshire West and KincardineEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,8773,206408892001,81606,322
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,6773,372485632001,69106,180
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,5928362171040068901,846
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,4071,2701362030081702,426
AberdeenshireMearns11,6514,034790528002,94708,299
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,0722,9261,498633002,83007,887
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside11,3894,405974433002,30108,113
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,3681,0361313070092302,397
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,4443,6201,066727002,73908,152
 Total73,44424,7055,7054,4590016,753051,626

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine.

Aberdeenshire West and KincardinePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,8773,206408892001,81606,322
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,6773,372485632001,69106,180
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,5928362171040068901,846
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,4071,2701362030081702,426
AberdeenshireMearns11,6514,034790528002,94708,299
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,0722,9261,498633002,83007,887
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside11,3894,405974433002,30108,113
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,3681,0361313070092302,397
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,4443,6201,066727002,73908,152
 Total73,44424,7055,7054,4590016,753051,622

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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