Alyn and Deeside: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 63,041
Turnout: 71.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB23,31552.1%52.1%
CON18,08040.4%40.4%
Plaid1,1712.6%2.6%
UKIP1,1172.5%2.5%
LIB1,0772.4%2.4%
Green00.0%0.0%
LAB Majority5,23511.7%Pred Maj 11.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
100%
CON
0%
Plaid
0%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age48.949.648.5
ABC1 Class46%47%53%

Alyn and Deeside ranks #252 for "Leave", #450 for "Right" and #349 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Alyn and Deeside: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Alyn and Deeside

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Alyn and Deeside at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Alyn and Deeside. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Alyn and DeesideActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
FlintshireAston2012024500001,414
FlintshireBroughton North East20120-100000
FlintshireBroughton South20121569490000462
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East20120373640000627
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West20120886638000337
FlintshireBuckley Mountain201201870000652
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin201220550000001,790
FlintshireCaergwrle20120352000094
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central201201,4200000162
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn201201,1350000382
FlintshireConnah's Quay South20122781,4722380000
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre201202720000336
FlintshireEwloe201251954900001,136
FlintshireHawarden2012-1000000
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton20124619032000365
FlintshireHope2012013600610646
FlintshireLlanfynydd20122342290000225
FlintshireMancot201201,1050000507
FlintshirePenyffordd201208120000925
FlintshireQueensferry20120-100000
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction20120780000276
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge201203560000434
FlintshireSealand201204590000161
FlintshireShotton East201202780000250
FlintshireShotton Higher201203590000182
FlintshireShotton West20120-100000
FlintshireTreuddyn2012000000-1

Alyn and DeesideTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,313024700001,4231,670
FlintshireBroughton North East1,70001,227000001,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,8332041,23800006032,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,55204197190007041,842
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,46301,1908570004532,500
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,255036300001,2651,628
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,52620951000001,8262,545
FlintshireCaergwrle1,21506920000185877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,49401,61600001841,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,15402,24300007552,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,2654302,27936900003,078
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,701054900006781,227
FlintshireEwloe4,11770074000001,5312,971
FlintshireHawarden1,4051,0140000001,014
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,2856727847000535927
FlintshireHope1,91202230010001,0571,380
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,42635034300003371,030
FlintshireMancot2,61201,29200005931,885
FlintshirePenyffordd2,868096800001,1022,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,58001,140000001,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,08501730000611784
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,747089300001,0891,982
FlintshireSealand2,25201,20300004221,625
FlintshireShotton East1,441054800004921,040
FlintshireShotton Higher1,961093900004761,415
FlintshireShotton West1,62101,170000001,170
FlintshireTreuddyn1,236000000892892
 Total62,0192,97422,4831,9920100017,21344,762

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Alyn and DeesideEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,351942590166805401,670
FlintshireBroughton North East1,7282958903290101,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,8807541,171464802602,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,5947587332297105101,842
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,5207421,3502855806502,500
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,292856652214105801,628
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,5841,437919407107802,545
FlintshireCaergwrle1,23521057526190470877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,5353271,379133804301,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,2228841,963127706202,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,3359561,9251244802603,079
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,72950166333003001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,1851,85598785606402,970
FlintshireHawarden1,428825183410201,015
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,30656230713220220926
FlintshireHope1,944805421241011101,380
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,449536428122003401,030
FlintshireMancot2,6555961,18585204401,885
FlintshirePenyffordd2,9159381,000354005702,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,6061399691270401,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,10338930829320250783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,7928201,020376404201,983
FlintshireSealand2,2894441,119152802001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,465345569355004101,040
FlintshireShotton Higher1,99339392623505901,415
FlintshireShotton West1,64820090683801801,170
FlintshireTreuddyn1,25657417821320870892
 Total62,01918,08323,3161,0771,11601,171044,762

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Alyn and Deeside

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Alyn and Deeside.

Alyn and DeesidePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,351941590166815401,670
FlintshireBroughton North East1,7282958903290101,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,8807531,171474812602,046
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,5947577332307115101,843
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,5207411,3492865816502,500
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,292855652214115801,628
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,5841,436918417117802,545
FlintshireCaergwrle1,23521057526190470877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,5353261,379133814301,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,2228831,962137716202,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,3359551,9241254812603,079
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,72950166333003001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,1851,85498695616402,970
FlintshireHawarden1,428825183410201,015
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,30656230713220220926
FlintshireHope1,944804421241011101,379
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,449536428122003401,030
FlintshireMancot2,6555951,18595214401,886
FlintshirePenyffordd2,9159371,000364015702,071
FlintshireQueensferry1,6061399691270401,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,10338930829320250783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,7928191,020386414201,984
FlintshireSealand2,2894431,119152812001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,465345569355004101,040
FlintshireShotton Higher1,99339292623505901,414
FlintshireShotton West1,64820090683801801,170
FlintshireTreuddyn1,25657417821320870892
 Total62,01918,06723,3111,0871,116141,171044,766

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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