Antrim East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Sammy Wilson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 62,908
Turnout: 60.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP21,87357.3%
MIN5,95015.6%
UUP4,52411.9%
SF3,5559.3%
SDLP1,2783.4%
OTH9632.5%
LIB Majority15,92341.7%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 45%
55% Leave

Antrim East ranks #285 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Antrim East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Antrim East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey20141013350400105372
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff20142740311000387
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201490304480093330
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown20142990339000422
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown20143170360000448
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla20143920445000553
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan20141172098500395314
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin201413724510000462368
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn201433203260024388
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2014158026712600430
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill20142520338000358
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle20141777821400142398
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm20141707520600136382
Mid and East AntrimCastle2014190032115200516
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill20142199626400175491
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver201434703400025406
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore20141828022000146409
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2014208725540099272
Mid and East AntrimGortalee20142850382000405
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland20142820378000401
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee201432403180024379
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2014223037717800607
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter201440503970029474
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2014171028813600464
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2014197685260094258
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands20143680495000523
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens20141988723900158444
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2014196033215700534
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South201435603490026417
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn20143060411000435

Antrim EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,43579263940082291872
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff7601300148000184462
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill35420797002072216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,19637604270005311,334
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,51043004880006071,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,10253106030007491,883
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,06013123395004413511,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin81251923800174138493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,312436042800315091,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,1142070349165005631,284
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,03732904410004671,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,293244108295001965491,392
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,203235104284001885271,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,5422490420199006761,544
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,828302132364002416771,716
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,415455044600335331,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,356251110304002015641,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1882075200926114
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,30337204980005281,398
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,28036804930005231,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,256425041700314971,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,9872920494233007951,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,820531052100386221,712
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,2822240377178006071,386
Mid and East AntrimSlemish24426968001233148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,98048106460006831,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,558273120330002186131,554
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,6262560434205006991,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,481467045800345471,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,47439905360005671,502
 Total62,8088,59094810,94598001,94914,72838,140

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437423155700106137873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761684283002086461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355118137002634216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,1991981281800572501,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,5142261393500662851,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107280171,15400813521,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,06369239306004721651,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin81327941210018665493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,3162301283300902391,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,1171091482600702641,283
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,0401731078400502201,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297129118641002472581,393
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207124114616002372471,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,5461311799400843171,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833159145791003043181,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,4192401386900952501,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360132121659002532651,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry18811872001213116
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,3071961288600572481,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,2841941287700562451,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,2602241281200892331,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992154201,16800993731,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824280151,015001112921,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,2861181689200762851,387
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244141093001615148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985253151,14700743211,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562144132716002752881,555
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630135181,02600873281,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,4852461389200982571,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,4782101395200612661,502
 Total62,8084,5271,27821,872003,5556,91638,140

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim East

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim East.

Antrim EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437423155700106137873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761684283002086461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355118137002634216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,1991981281800572501,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,5142261393500662851,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107280171,15400813521,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,06369239306004721651,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin81327941210018665493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,3162301283300902391,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,1171091482600702641,283
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,0401731078400502201,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297129118641002472581,393
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207124114616002372471,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,5461311799400843171,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833159145791003043181,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,4192401386900952501,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360132121659002532651,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry18811872001213116
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,3071961288600572481,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,2841941287700562451,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,2602241281200892331,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992154201,16800993731,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824280151,015001112921,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,2861181689200762851,387
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244141093001615148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985253151,14700743211,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562144132716002752881,555
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630135181,02600873281,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,4852461389200982571,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,4782101395200612661,502
 Total62,8084,5271,27821,872003,5556,91638,148

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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