Antrim North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim North: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,657
Turnout: 64.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP28,52158.9%
SF7,87816.3%
UUP3,4827.2%
MIN3,2826.8%
OTH2,7235.6%
SDLP2,5745.3%
LIB Majority20,64342.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 38%
62% Leave

Antrim North ranks #117 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Antrim North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle201413724610000465370
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East201429240414532061819
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North201430642415233064919
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South201428339214031060018
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills201434748017238073522
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock20142851053473400342
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy201431844115835067520
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2014269993283200323
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane201414025110300474378
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum201414525910600490390
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin201435949817839076223
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute201430141714933063819
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin201413724510000462368
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2014451092290056338
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2014286049100193487
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2014581412950073435
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville20142237759600106292
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2014531302720067400
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2014541312750068404
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane20142368163100112309
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2014551342820069415
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2014233039900157396
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2014661603350082493
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2014254043500171432
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel20142227759300106291
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2014208725540099272
Mid and East AntrimGrange2014276047400186470
Mid and East AntrimKells20142307961300109301
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2014204705440097267
Mid and East AntrimMaine2014241041300162410
Mid and East AntrimPark2014491202510062369
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2014246042100166418
Mid and East AntrimSlemish2014197685260094258

Antrim NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,424161289117005464351,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,228275381137300582181,423
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,339289400143310612181,493
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,162267370132290566171,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,650327453162360693211,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,55841815450950005021,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,432300416149330637191,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,41739514548247004741,543
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,476164295121005574441,581
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,556170304124005754581,631
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,746339470168370719221,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,301284394141310602181,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,60110719178003602871,023
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,9167117236100885321,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,4943130537002115321,593
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,46691222464001156841,576
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,32725688685001223351,486
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,27283205428001056301,451
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,29485206432001076351,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,46227193725001293551,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,35387211444001096531,504
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,0272550436001724331,296
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,800104252527001297761,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,2122780476001874721,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,31625588681001223341,480
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,97721875581001042851,263
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,4063020518002035141,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,39326491703001253451,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,12523480625001113071,357
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,0992640452001774481,341
Mid and East AntrimPark2,0957718939500975801,338
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,1402690460001814571,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,8091996953200952611,156
 Total75,8737,4726,30312,92532409,13812,30148,463

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,41775118672004712121,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,2221281566290050291,424
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,3321351636590052891,494
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,1561241516090048891,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,64215218574700597111,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551195631,1300002451,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,4251401706860054991,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410184591,0680002311,542
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,46976120687004802161,579
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,54979124708004962231,630
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,73815819277400620111,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,2941321616490051991,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,5965078445003101411,024
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,911337078500762601,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,48714601,006001822601,594
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,45942911,01000993331,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,320119361,062001051631,485
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,266398493100913071,452
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,287408493900923101,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,455126381,124001111741,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,346418696500943191,505
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,0211190818001482121,297
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,792481031,147001113791,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,2061300892001612301,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,309119361,057001051631,480
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,9711023190200901391,264
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,3991410970001752511,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,386123371,092001081681,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,1191093397000961501,358
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,0931230847001532191,342
Mid and East AntrimPark2,089367785800842831,338
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,1341250863001562231,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,804932882600821281,157
 Total75,8733,4822,57428,527007,8796,00648,463

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim North

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim North.

Antrim NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,41775118672004712121,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,2221281566290050291,424
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,3321351636590052891,494
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,1561241516090048891,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,64215218574700597111,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551195631,1300002451,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,4251401706860054991,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410184591,0680002311,542
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,46976120687004802161,579
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,54979124708004962231,630
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,73815819277400620111,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,2941321616490051991,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,5965078445003101411,024
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,911337078500762601,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,48714601,006001822601,594
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,45942911,01000993331,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,320119361,062001051631,485
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,266398493100913071,452
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,287408493900923101,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,455126381,124001111741,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,346418696500943191,505
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,0211190818001482121,297
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,792481031,147001113791,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,2061300892001612301,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,309119361,057001051631,480
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,9711023190200901391,264
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,3991410970001752511,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,386123371,092001081681,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,1191093397000961501,358
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,0931230847001532191,342
Mid and East AntrimPark2,089367785800842831,338
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,1341250863001562231,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,804932882600821281,157
 Total75,8733,4822,57428,527007,8796,00648,468

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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