Antrim South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim South: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 68,244
Turnout: 63.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP16,50838.2%
UUP13,30030.8%
SF7,79718.1%
MIN3,2037.4%
SDLP2,3625.5%
LIB Majority3,2087.4%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 49%
51% Leave

Antrim South ranks #396 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Antrim South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove201434224634400272185
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre201422510130400105250
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East20143850473000465
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West20143200393000386
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff20142740311000387
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry20142149828500207186
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure20143090379000373
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert20143120384000377
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill201425211633600244219
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney20142109627900203183
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201490304480093330
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady201425618425800204138
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield20142142173420028594
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin201431222431300248168
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh20143080378000371
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview20142650301000374
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2014188842540088209
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2014191852580089212
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown201421710028900210189
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown20142990339000422
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk201436926537000293199
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley20143160359000446
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate20142002033210026788
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown201424024338400319106
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan20142242273580029899
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm201430013440500140333
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple20142209929700102245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles201423310431500109259
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick201424517624700195133
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome201423323737300311103
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy201422513355200163163
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford20141619639500117117

Antrim SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,947465334467003702511,887
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,512367165496001714081,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,84052906500006391,818
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,35743905400005301,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,4082540288000359901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry9591336117700128115614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,27642405210005121,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,30342905280005181,475
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,940268123358002602331,242
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,718238109316002302071,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill24814572001553159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,211348250351002781881,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,212263267420003501161,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,689425305426003382291,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,26742305190005091,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,09637804300005341,342
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,103308137416001443421,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,130312139421001453461,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown72910146134009888467
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown1683003400043107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,178502360503003992712,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,50245205130006371,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,073246250395003281081,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,482295299472003921301,588
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,317276279440003671221,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,347490219662002295442,144
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,456359162485001674001,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,602381170515001784231,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,116333239336002651811,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,414287291459003821271,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,423282167693002052051,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,3981639739900118118895
 Total67,42110,2144,47413,436005,5579,48643,167

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,98358417658500456851,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,54349587623002641381,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,8756850805001132161,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386568066800941791,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,42534103750063121900
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971172322150015639614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304549064500901731,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331555065400921751,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,9643466543600317791,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,7393075838500280701,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill25128386002518160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,23843713244000343631,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,23933814149400404391,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,72253416153400417771,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295547064200901721,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122508055900941801,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,12941572523002221151,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,15642073529002241171,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738130241630011930466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown1704004400815107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,21763019063100492922,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,5336070667001132151,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,09831613246400379361,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,51237915855500453441,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,34535414751800424411,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388660116832003531842,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,48648486610002581351,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,63451390647002741431,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,14241912642100327611,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,44336815454000441431,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,4533618877200262691,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415209514440015140895
 Total67,42113,2992,36216,506007,7983,20443,167

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim South

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim South.

Antrim SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,98358417658500456851,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,54349587623002641381,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,8756850805001132161,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386568066800941791,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,42534103750063121900
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971172322150015639614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304549064500901731,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331555065400921751,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,9643466543600317791,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,7393075838500280701,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill25128386002518160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,23843713244000343631,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,23933814149400404391,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,72253416153400417771,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295547064200901721,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122508055900941801,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,12941572523002221151,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,15642073529002241171,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738130241630011930466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown1704004400815107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,21763019063100492922,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,5336070667001132151,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,09831613246400379361,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,51237915855500453441,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,34535414751800424411,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388660116832003531842,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,48648486610002581351,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,63451390647002741431,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,14241912642100327611,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,44336815454000441431,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,4533618877200262691,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415209514440015140895
 Total67,42113,2992,36216,506007,7983,20443,169

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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