Arfon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Arfon: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from Plaid 

MP at 2017: Hywel Williams  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 41,367
Turnout: 68.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
Plaid11,51940.8%40.8%
LAB11,42740.5%40.8%
CON4,61416.4%13.2%
LIB6482.3%2.3%
UKIP00.0%2.0%
Green00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%0.4%
NAT Majority920.3%Pred Maj 0.0%
Chance of
winning
Plaid
42%
LAB
54%
CON
4%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Arfon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Arfon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position18° Left10° Left
National Position11° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %39%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health53%47%48%
UK Born93%95%88%
Good Education46%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age46.349.648.5
ABC1 Class52%47%53%

Arfon ranks #563 for "Leave", #610 for "Right" and #512 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Arfon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Arfon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Arfon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Arfon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Arfon. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

ArfonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd201200000-10
GwyneddBethel201203750002520
GwyneddBontnewydd201200000309161
GwyneddCadnant201202680003970
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo20120-100000
GwyneddDeiniol20120665200620
GwyneddDeiniolen201200000205357
GwyneddDewi2012015435002540
GwyneddGarth20120000081114
GwyneddGerlan201200000375175
GwyneddGlyder201200285003170
GwyneddGroeslon201200000133634
GwyneddHendre201201360001530
GwyneddHirael2012010723000227
GwyneddLlanberis2012000000-1
GwyneddLlanllyfni201200000269159
GwyneddLlanrug201200000-10
GwyneddLlanwnda201200000277459
GwyneddMarchog201203610000688
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)201201602740029743
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)201200000519414
GwyneddOgwen201200000-10
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)20120108000287242
GwyneddPenisarwaun201200000-10
GwyneddPentir20126014732003320
GwyneddPenygroes201200000401255
GwyneddSeiont201203040003111,274
GwyneddTalysarn201200000139492
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai201204480004420
GwyneddWaunfawr201200000388290
GwyneddY Felinheli201200000-10

ArfonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd928000006460646
GwyneddBethel95203970002670664
GwyneddBontnewydd76800000352183535
GwyneddCadnant1,37703870005730960
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo661046000000460
GwyneddDeiniol1,2820327258003080893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,28800000327570897
GwyneddDewi1,266030770005060883
GwyneddGarth66700000193272465
GwyneddGerlan1,592000007563531,109
GwyneddGlyder1,16100383004260809
GwyneddGroeslon1,15300000139664803
GwyneddHendre99603260003670693
GwyneddHirael1,113023250000493775
GwyneddLlanberis1,363000000949949
GwyneddLlanllyfni84500000370219589
GwyneddLlanrug1,286000008960896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,35200000354587941
GwyneddMarchog1,720041200007861,198
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,7530396679007361071,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,468000005694541,023
GwyneddOgwen1,575000001,09701,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,59601880005014221,111
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,143000007960796
GwyneddPentir1,645120295640066601,145
GwyneddPenygroes1,20100000511325836
GwyneddSeiont1,99202230002289361,387
GwyneddTalysarn1,25600000193682875
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,478051800051101,029
GwyneddWaunfawr1,10600000441330771
GwyneddY Felinheli1,512000001,05301,053
 Total40,4951204,4681,5040013,7828,33228,206

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

ArfonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd948941385004090646
GwyneddBethel972513331002790664
GwyneddBontnewydd7851011701002630535
GwyneddCadnant1,407914320004360959
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo6754729012001110460
GwyneddDeiniol1,31013241792002520893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,31615537522003450897
GwyneddDewi1,29313236124003650882
GwyneddGarth6811171959001430464
GwyneddGerlan1,62612042170056001,108
GwyneddGlyder1,186147227110003260810
GwyneddGroeslon1,1782143443002430804
GwyneddHendre1,0177232126002740693
GwyneddHirael1,13715948113001230776
GwyneddLlanberis1,39226844014002270949
GwyneddLlanllyfni863892101002890589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314962211005780896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,3811804060003560942
GwyneddMarchog1,75724171900023701,197
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,8124147402130055101,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500165360160048201,023
GwyneddOgwen1,6098428420072701,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,63013850500046701,110
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,1687919019005070795
GwyneddPentir1,680231430210046401,146
GwyneddPenygroes1,2271462625004230836
GwyneddSeiont2,03529369000040501,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,2831864350002530874
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,51089481280043101,029
GwyneddWaunfawr1,1301592680003440771
GwyneddY Felinheli1,54512527830064701,053
 Total40,4954,61511,4246480011,517028,206

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Arfon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Arfon.

ArfonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd9487514051234092646
GwyneddBethel972413341612791663
GwyneddBontnewydd7858117211332633536
GwyneddCadnant1,4077343401234362960
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo6753829112611111460
GwyneddDeiniol1,310105420921742523893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316124378222043454897
GwyneddDewi1,293105364241743653882
GwyneddGarth6819819791231432464
GwyneddGerlan1,62696424715356031,108
GwyneddGlyder1,1861172301101943264810
GwyneddGroeslon1,17818234732042434803
GwyneddHendre1,0175832326922742694
GwyneddHirael1,137128484132041234776
GwyneddLlanberis1,392230444142452275949
GwyneddLlanllyfni8637121211122892588
GwyneddLlanrug1,3147722311235782896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,38114441002353565943
GwyneddMarchog1,757193724030723761,197
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,8123377482134911551101,919
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,5001323631621548241,023
GwyneddOgwen1,60967286211272721,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630110508018446731,110
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,16863192191025072795
GwyneddPentir1,6801854352129646461,146
GwyneddPenygroes1,22711726551944234837
GwyneddSeiont2,035237696035840571,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,28315143902252534874
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510714832811243121,028
GwyneddWaunfawr1,13012827102043444771
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545100281316364731,053
 Total40,4953,73411,51864855912111,51710928,206

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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