Ashford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ashford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Damian Green  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 87,396
Turnout: 68.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,31859.0%55.3%
LAB17,84029.8%30.2%
LIB3,1015.2%5.2%
UKIP2,2183.7%6.1%
Green1,4022.3%2.9%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,47829.2%Pred Maj 25.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
88%
LAB
12%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ashford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ashford constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education36%43%39%
Good Job50%56%51%
High SEC52%57%51%
Average Age49.549.248.5
ABC1 Class53%60%53%

Ashford ranks #166 for "Leave", #191 for "Right" and #149 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ashford: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ashford

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ashford at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ashford. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

AshfordActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green20155927250000
AshfordBeaver20151,1381,4620812330126
AshfordBiddenden20151,0570003910
AshfordBockhanger20157783920000
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell20154651586400895
AshfordBybrook20156935490000
AshfordCharing2015714030338000
AshfordDowns North2015932291002900
AshfordDowns West20158930004310
AshfordGodinton20152,7281,0603121,265334155
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North201578231503580336
AshfordHighfield2015593000135612
AshfordIsle of Oxney2015983003892130
AshfordKennington20156841771332120213
AshfordLittle Burton Farm201574733112832100
AshfordNorman20156435060000
AshfordNorth Willesborough20151,3361,1881,1470406436
AshfordPark Farm North201582132803370193
AshfordPark Farm South20158394360000
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West2015-100000
AshfordSingleton South201564633103000226
AshfordSouth Willesborough2015297303024896520
AshfordSt Michaels20158930002910
AshfordStanhope20151854820245590
AshfordStour20152,1611,333004780
AshfordTenterden North201582718616000248
AshfordTenterden South2015946179027000
AshfordVictoria20151,2231,35701,1193320
AshfordWashford2015772379000389
AshfordWeald Central20153,00755207910679
AshfordWeald East20151,1400003880
AshfordWeald North2015968003331940
AshfordWeald South20154,022934005070
AshfordWye2015402142711260651

AshfordTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,12867282300001,495
AshfordBeaver4,3689031,16006452621003,070
AshfordBiddenden1,9551,00300037101,374
AshfordBockhanger1,73180940800001,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,51051917671009981,764
AshfordBybrook1,89474358800001,331
AshfordCharing1,7596320268336001,236
AshfordDowns North1,8417972490024801,294
AshfordDowns West1,86088200042601,308
AshfordGodinton4,7491,556604178721190883,337
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,787855345039203681,960
AshfordHighfield1,9286000001376191,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,9368440033418301,361
AshfordKennington1,63255314310817101721,147
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,382819363140352001,674
AshfordNorman2,24988569600001,581
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,85080171268802432612,705
AshfordPark Farm North2,738941376038602211,924
AshfordPark Farm South2,3381,08156200001,643
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,7701,244000001,244
AshfordSingleton South2,351710364033002481,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,81840241003361307041,982
AshfordSt Michaels1,79395100031001,261
AshfordStanhope2,603349908046211101,830
AshfordStour3,9821,5239390033702,799
AshfordTenterden North1,694693156134002081,191
AshfordTenterden South1,8008581620245001,265
AshfordVictoria4,2829131,013083524803,009
AshfordWashford2,6249254540004661,845
AshfordWeald Central3,6201,521279040003442,544
AshfordWeald East1,83296100032701,288
AshfordWeald North1,7988180028116401,263
AshfordWeald South3,9022,0194690025502,743
AshfordWye1,6873421216010705551,185
 Total85,19130,12412,4801,6476,3333,9425,35259,878

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

AshfordEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,18361680038301201,496
AshfordBeaver4,4811,1741,4401432278703,071
AshfordBiddenden2,0061,05518835138201,373
AshfordBockhanger1,7767494271420701,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,5751,0804931768801,765
AshfordBybrook1,9437075452249901,332
AshfordCharing1,805837154153702101,235
AshfordDowns North1,8899052843746401,294
AshfordDowns West1,90896321330188401,308
AshfordGodinton4,8721,9029952121666303,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,8591,11863298842701,959
AshfordHighfield1,97885734969483301,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,98696320653687201,362
AshfordKennington1,674709259119332601,146
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,4441,000450138691701,674
AshfordNorman2,30778067737662101,581
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,9501,243847473766702,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,8091,20454086841001,924
AshfordPark Farm South2,3991,07950810361001,643
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,8161,096833572301,244
AshfordSingleton South2,412938531601061701,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,891913830891113901,982
AshfordSt Michaels1,8399291588678001,260
AshfordStanhope2,670588981561693601,830
AshfordStour4,0851,5301,00292809502,799
AshfordTenterden North1,738814209115282501,191
AshfordTenterden South1,84788623778511401,266
AshfordVictoria4,3931,3051,2441412427703,009
AshfordWashford2,6921,04469264321201,844
AshfordWeald Central3,7141,81551496863302,544
AshfordWeald East1,8799292314457901,288
AshfordWeald North1,84591520527556101,263
AshfordWeald South4,0032,01455051458302,743
AshfordWye1,731661366124251001,186
 Total85,19135,31817,8403,1012,2181,404059,878

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ashford

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ashford.

AshfordPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,18356080638652071,496
AshfordBeaver4,4811,0591,452143299103143,070
AshfordBiddenden2,0061,00419335458961,372
AshfordBockhanger1,77670443214491361,218
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,5751,014500176501781,765
AshfordBybrook1,94365755022801661,331
AshfordCharing1,805791159153992761,235
AshfordDowns North1,88985728937357161,295
AshfordDowns West1,90891421830499161,308
AshfordGodinton4,8721,7781,00821224580153,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,8591,045640981303791,959
AshfordHighfield1,97880635469804061,355
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,986912211531007961,361
AshfordKennington1,674666263119603251,145
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,4449384561381082681,674
AshfordNorman2,307721683371032971,580
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,9501,14285747314081132,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,8091,132547861292091,923
AshfordPark Farm South2,3991,01851410751881,643
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,8161,0508835362961,244
AshfordSingleton South2,412876537601452581,651
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,891839838891584991,982
AshfordSt Michaels1,83988216386378661,260
AshfordStanhope2,670520988562124581,829
AshfordStour4,0851,4261,01392146109132,799
AshfordTenterden North1,738770214115563161,192
AshfordTenterden South1,84783924278812161,267
AshfordVictoria4,3931,1931,25614131392143,009
AshfordWashford2,69297569964752191,843
AshfordWeald Central3,7141,7205249614646122,544
AshfordWeald East1,87988123644358661,288
AshfordWeald North1,84586821027856761,263
AshfordWeald South4,0031,9125615111097132,744
AshfordWye1,731617371124531651,186
 Total85,19133,08618,0723,1013,6291,70927859,875

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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