Aylesbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Aylesbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: David Lidington  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 82,546
Turnout: 71.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,31355.0%52.0%
LAB17,61730.0%28.9%
LIB5,6609.6%9.7%
UKIP1,2962.2%5.7%
Green1,2372.1%3.4%
OTH6201.1%0.3%
CON Majority14,69625.0%Pred Maj 23.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Aylesbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aylesbury constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right4° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born87%88%88%
Good Education42%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age47.849.248.5
ABC1 Class60%60%53%

Aylesbury ranks #338 for "Leave", #58 for "Right" and #114 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aylesbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Aylesbury: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Aylesbury

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Aylesbury at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Aylesbury. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

AylesburyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville20157,9567707664,8141,3140
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove20153,2065465981,408487579
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton20152,0191,0521,3221,0484910
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour20153,4565714,2872,5697850
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst20151,1001,1481,3811,2333510
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse20152,6257742,9192,4946180
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm20155,4227981,7322,9221,1970
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton20153,1096763,2462,5334200
Aylesbury ValeRiverside20152,5995661,4222,88800
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt20151,1331,0021,2949922450
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade20151,4165671,3071,34300
Aylesbury ValeWatermead2015825049435400
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton20156,36208283,8752,5350
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham20151,3320003390
WycombeGreater Hughenden20159,56202,14301,2120
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens20151,2220003760
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage20152,895009257630

AylesburyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,2122,6772592581,62044205,256
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,6911,6062743007052442903,419
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,7421,17661377061128603,456
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour6,9751,5062491,8681,11934205,084
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst5,09678481898487825003,714
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse5,2161,0583121,1771,00524903,801
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,5142,1323146811,14947104,747
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton4,4019992171,04381413503,208
Aylesbury ValeRiverside3,506888193486987002,554
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,84385775897975018503,529
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,7631,0614259791,006003,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,7516290377270001,276
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,1822,10702741,28484004,505
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,2411,30200033101,633
WycombeGreater Hughenden6,2483,3710755042704,553
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens2,1081,17500036101,536
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,1211,8970060650003,003
 Total80,61025,2254,43210,93112,8045,06329058,745

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

AylesburyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,3853,4531,30125297108445,255
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,8041,99584829264461733,418
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,8561,6701,2233638186333,456
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour7,1432,4111,68675576109485,085
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst5,2181,5211,61739810351243,714
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse5,3411,6291,45947713970283,802
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,6702,5201,52945912082374,747
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton4,5071,6219924427156263,208
Aylesbury ValeRiverside3,5901,13998826612213272,555
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,9591,2471,59148412746343,529
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,8771,5671,33441110326303,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,7937603181581613101,275
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,3302,8071,10332570159404,504
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,2951,3152043516991,633
WycombeGreater Hughenden6,3983,38460839718118284,553
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens2,1591,1922234007471,536
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,2202,08159310788110233,002
 Total80,61032,31217,6175,6611,2961,23662158,745

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aylesbury

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aylesbury.

AylesburyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,3853,2951,243255275177115,256
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,8041,892810296256120443,418
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,8561,5661,18536520013283,456
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour7,1432,2581,630758251177125,086
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst5,2181,4091,5764002259863,714
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse5,3411,5141,41747926611973,802
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,6702,3771,47646227914494,747
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton4,5071,5249564441799873,208
Aylesbury ValeRiverside3,5901,0629602682114872,556
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,9591,1411,5524862499393,530
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,8771,4621,2954132217283,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,793722304159593031,277
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,3302,6711,053328223218104,503
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,2951,26619336498821,634
WycombeGreater Hughenden6,3983,24757439915517174,553
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens2,1591,14621141459221,537
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,2201,99156010918814963,003
 Total80,61030,54316,9955,6983,3312,02615858,751

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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