Ayrshire Central: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ayrshire Central: Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2017: Philippa Whitford  (SNP)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 68,997
Turnout: 65.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP16,77137.2%40.0%
CON15,50434.4%30.9%
LAB11,76226.1%25.8%
LIB1,0502.3%2.0%
UKIP00.0%0.4%
Green00.0%0.9%
NAT Majority1,2672.8%Pred Maj 9.2%
Chance of
winning
SNP
58%
CON
27%
LAB
15%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Ayrshire Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ayrshire Central constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left14° Left
National Position16° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %39%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born97%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age50.748.748.5
ABC1 Class46%50%53%

Ayrshire Central ranks #553 for "Leave", #590 for "Right" and #545 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ayrshire Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ayrshire Central: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ayrshire Central

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ayrshire Central at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ayrshire Central. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Ayrshire CentralActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine East20123771,819263001,962653
North AyrshireIrvine West20126142,065246001,889319
North AyrshireKilwinning20123631,85882001,5881,048
South AyrshireAyr North20126922,0000001,6660
South AyrshireKyle20128651,2070001,057556
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton20129169860001,3031,100
South AyrshirePrestwick20122,1881,458128001,8470
South AyrshireTroon20122,3241,2330001,577730

Ayrshire CentralTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine East15,9897653,693534003,9831,32610,301
North AyrshireIrvine West15,6461,2064,055483003,71062610,080
North AyrshireKilwinning2,23910654324004643061,443
South AyrshireAyr North1,69917450200041801,094
South AyrshireKyle9,0551,3691,9110001,6738805,833
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton980134145000191161631
South AyrshirePrestwick12,3333,0932,061181002,61107,946
South AyrshireTroon12,0403,0741,6310002,0869667,757
 Total69,9819,92114,5411,2220015,1364,26545,085

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Ayrshire CentralEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine East15,7642,6772,938310004,376010,301
North AyrshireIrvine West15,4262,7003,258238003,885010,081
North AyrshireKilwinning2,208434433150056101,443
South AyrshireAyr North1,67527939470041501,095
South AyrshireKyle8,9282,2651,4438002,11805,834
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton96625212213002440631
South AyrshirePrestwick12,1603,2851,740201002,71907,945
South AyrshireTroon11,8713,6121,434258002,45307,757
 Total69,98115,50411,7621,0500016,771045,085

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ayrshire Central

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ayrshire Central.

Ayrshire CentralPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine East15,7642,3162,90626546914,677010,301
North AyrshireIrvine West15,4262,3473,22720344874,173010,081
North AyrshireKilwinning2,2083834291361260001,443
South AyrshireAyr North1,67524139165944401,096
South AyrshireKyle8,9282,0611,425724462,27105,834
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton96623012011352620631
South AyrshirePrestwick12,1603,0071,71617235692,94707,946
South AyrshireTroon11,8713,3401,41222035692,68107,757
 Total69,98113,92511,62689719838818,055045,089

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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