Banbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Banbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Victoria Prentis  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 83,818
Turnout: 73.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,38854.2%50.5%
LAB20,98934.1%34.5%
LIB3,4525.6%5.6%
UKIP1,5812.6%4.9%
Green1,2252.0%2.5%
OTH9271.5%2.0%
CON Majority12,39920.1%Pred Maj 16.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
79%
LAB
21%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Banbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Banbury constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right4° Right
National Position2° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education39%43%39%
Good Job52%56%51%
High SEC53%57%51%
Average Age47.849.248.5
ABC1 Class55%60%53%

Banbury ranks #390 for "Leave", #247 for "Right" and #330 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Banbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Banbury: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Banbury

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Banbury at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Banbury. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BanburyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2012520181001190
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton20151,240412035200
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe201476739503371280
CherwellBanbury Easington20152,1159972546242840
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle20151,4601,5332306233300
CherwellBanbury Hardwick20151,6618512287342170
CherwellBanbury Neithrop201443363403631120
CherwellBanbury Ruscote20158581,33906392010
CherwellBicester East20151,7059920000
CherwellBicester North20151,75757706052610
CherwellBicester South20151,18143900165766
CherwellBicester Town20159896130368214139
CherwellBicester West20151,07052104431541,490
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote20149983041583641850
CherwellCaversfield20159963900000
CherwellCropredy20151,02223602371790
CherwellDeddington201456573118144940
CherwellFringford201466492013000
CherwellHook Norton20151,05630611801330
CherwellLaunton20124490199000
CherwellSibford2014618120611461040
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords20151,59836903614010
CherwellWroxton20146111340141920

BanburyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,2059963470022801,571
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,8191,2434130353002,009
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe3,9641,331686058522202,824
CherwellBanbury Easington5,7102,01394924259427004,068
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle7,9891,9902,08931384945005,691
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,1891,9841,01727287725904,409
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,2738551,252071722103,045
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,2251,2531,955093329304,434
CherwellBicester East4,2881,9311,12400003,055
CherwellBicester North5,1492,014661069329903,667
CherwellBicester South3,9731,310487001838502,830
CherwellBicester Town3,7731,14470904262481612,688
CherwellBicester West5,4301,12554804661621,5673,868
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,4631,57948125057629303,179
CherwellCaversfield2,2021,12744100001,568
CherwellCropredy1,997869201020115201,423
CherwellDeddington1,98280310416820513401,414
CherwellFringford1,7159161270179001,222
CherwellHook Norton1,915893259100011201,364
CherwellLaunton2,6601,31305820001,895
CherwellSibford1,9538201598119413801,392
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,6221,511349034137902,580
CherwellWroxton1,922855188019712901,369
 Total86,41829,87514,5462,0088,3864,1722,57861,565

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BanburyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,1391,01345929457101,572
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,7341,3254661004848222,009
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe3,8451,4381,1001298254212,824
CherwellBanbury Easington5,5382,2671,35624810763264,067
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle7,7492,2862,750343113153475,692
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,0032,2451,65927512078334,410
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,1441,1591,5929211961213,044
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,0381,5922,36713924364304,435
CherwellBicester East4,1591,8041,0031268610263,055
CherwellBicester North4,9942,1891,1191738376273,667
CherwellBicester South3,8531,60482516411551722,831
CherwellBicester Town3,6591,2141,09516310361512,687
CherwellBicester West5,2671,7761,325259152403163,868
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,3291,82784930277101233,179
CherwellCaversfield2,1361,02445466103101,567
CherwellCropredy1,937953341383247131,424
CherwellDeddington1,922916289144223471,412
CherwellFringford1,66391225020191191,221
CherwellHook Norton1,8579072971041134121,365
CherwellLaunton2,5801,339186304504131,896
CherwellSibford1,894946297762539101,393
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,5131,6776221244294222,581
CherwellWroxton1,86497528934234081,369
 Total86,41833,38820,9903,4521,5821,22792961,565

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Banbury

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Banbury.

BanburyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,139954465294165171,571
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,7341,2504741009558312,008
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe3,8451,3331,11112914969342,825
CherwellBanbury Easington5,5382,1151,37224820384454,067
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle7,7492,0742,772343247182735,691
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,0032,0811,676275224101534,410
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,1441,0451,6049219177353,044
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,0381,4272,38413934887514,436
CherwellBicester East4,1591,6901,01512615826403,055
CherwellBicester North4,9942,0521,13317316995443,666
CherwellBicester South3,8531,49883616478701852,831
CherwellBicester Town3,6591,1141,10516316675632,686
CherwellBicester West5,2671,6321,340259243603343,868
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,3291,708861302152117383,178
CherwellCaversfield2,136966460664711171,567
CherwellCropredy1,937900347386654201,425
CherwellDeddington1,9228632941445541141,411
CherwellFringford1,663866255204817151,221
CherwellHook Norton1,8578563021044341181,364
CherwellLaunton2,5801,2681933049514221,896
CherwellSibford1,894894302765846161,392
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,5131,581632124103107342,581
CherwellWroxton1,864924294345547141,368
 Total86,41831,09121,2273,4523,0341,5441,21361,561

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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