Barking: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Barking: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Margaret Hodge  (LAB)
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate: 77,020
Turnout: 61.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB32,31967.8%66.8%
CON10,71122.5%19.2%
UKIP3,0316.4%9.7%
Green7241.5%2.8%
LIB5991.3%1.3%
OTH2950.6%0.3%
LAB Majority21,60845.3%Pred Maj 47.6%
Chance of
winning
LAB
98%
CON
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Barking : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Barking constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Right11° Right
National Position15° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %60%40%52%
British Identity34%38%29%
Good Health48%50%48%
UK Born66%64%88%
Good Education31%48%39%
Good Job42%61%51%
High SEC38%55%51%
Average Age43.444.148.5
ABC1 Class42%62%53%

Barking ranks #143 for "Leave", #227 for "Right" and #530 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Barking: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Barking: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Barking

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Barking at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Barking. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

BarkingActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey20141,0256,29022164730794
Barking and DagenhamAlibon20145464,02714397400
Barking and DagenhamBecontree20147135,7671511,68400
Barking and DagenhamEastbury20147704,4502578320276
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne20146625,63004540515
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook20146494,2791311,0230469
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge20141,7426,038275623283542
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook20146143,39501,061353280
Barking and DagenhamParsloes20146473,680090000
Barking and DagenhamThames20146484,91501,2990301
Barking and DagenhamValence20146684,11701,0043500

BarkingTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey7,7555973,661129377179554,998
Barking and DagenhamAlibon6,4393982,936104710004,148
Barking and DagenhamBecontree7,0433893,14782919004,537
Barking and DagenhamEastbury7,0685323,07717857501914,553
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne7,1874223,590029003284,630
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook6,8774392,8948969203174,431
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge7,1098402,9101333001362614,580
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook6,3734422,44407642542024,106
Barking and DagenhamParsloes5,7834612,6230642003,726
Barking and DagenhamThames6,0643532,681070901643,907
Barking and DagenhamValence6,3054422,724066423204,062
 Total74,0035,31532,6877156,6428011,51847,678

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

BarkingEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey8,0719053,697107129139224,999
Barking and DagenhamAlibon6,7021,0212,6714737919124,149
Barking and DagenhamBecontree7,3309953,144433341284,536
Barking and DagenhamEastbury7,3561,0053,07710328550324,552
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne7,4807253,6257610747504,630
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook7,1571,0282,9174237522484,432
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge7,3991,3862,83510013193354,580
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook6,6331,0802,47129347147334,107
Barking and DagenhamParsloes6,0198782,480132531113,726
Barking and DagenhamThames6,3117552,801428926333,908
Barking and DagenhamValence6,5629322,60147329140124,061
 Total74,00310,71032,3195993,03072629647,678

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Barking

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Barking.

BarkingPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barking and DagenhamAbbey8,0717523,64811028319794,999
Barking and DagenhamAlibon6,7028812,630495146954,148
Barking and DagenhamBecontree7,3308423,099464806634,536
Barking and DagenhamEastbury7,3568513,032106441108134,551
Barking and DagenhamGascoigne7,4806033,58079249100214,632
Barking and DagenhamGoresbrook7,1578782,8734553481204,431
Barking and DagenhamLongbridge7,3991,2312,790103289152154,580
Barking and DagenhamMayesbrook6,6339412,43132490200144,108
Barking and DagenhamParsloes6,0197522,44334467653,725
Barking and DagenhamThames6,3116282,763642276143,909
Barking and DagenhamValence6,5627952,5614946118954,060
 Total74,0039,15431,8506284,6091,31412447,679

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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