Barrow and Furness: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Barrow and Furness: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: John Woodcock  (LAB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 69,474
Turnout: 68.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,59247.5%48.9%
CON22,38347.0%44.2%
LIB1,2782.7%2.3%
UKIP9622.0%3.7%
Green3750.8%1.0%
LAB Majority2090.4%Pred Maj 4.8%
Chance of
winning
LAB
59%
CON
41%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Barrow and Furness : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Barrow and Furness constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left6° Left
National Position5° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health43%46%48%
UK Born97%92%88%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC45%48%51%
Average Age50.948.648.5
ABC1 Class44%50%53%

Barrow and Furness ranks #216 for "Leave", #393 for "Right" and #257 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Barrow and Furness: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Barrow and Furness: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Barrow and Furness

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Barrow and Furness at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Barrow and Furness. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Barrow and FurnessActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island20150589032800
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral201501,530038000
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North20153,4783,49841666400
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South20153,4003,6070000
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat20154,6122,3760000
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool20150-30000
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns20152,4583,4970000
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill20150-30000
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside20151,7343,4380000
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale201504,145078600
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote20154,0433,0940000
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North201504,004078000
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South20151,5733,936067600
South LakelandBroughton201555015500125569
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley20124180279000
South LakelandLow Furness2015618132128160580
South LakelandMid Furness2015871330845199890
South LakelandUlverston Central2012209211450340
South LakelandUlverston East20121112142334310
South LakelandUlverston North20122802486901140
South LakelandUlverston South2012329210210310
South LakelandUlverston Town2012150271300500
South LakelandUlverston West2012381147260490

Barrow and FurnessTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island1,98708890495001,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral3,36301,8760466002,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,8041,4441,453173276003,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,7351,6001,69700003,297
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat3,7811,73889500002,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,67103,25300003,253
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,2061,2091,72000002,929
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,54703,16600003,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,3191,0081,99900003,007
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,90102,8690544003,413
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,6421,4371,09900002,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,11502,3980467002,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,0867241,8110311002,846
South LakelandBroughton1,690463130001054791,177
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley16770047000117
South LakelandLow Furness1,311515110107133480913
South LakelandMid Furness3,0397902997661808102,116
South LakelandUlverston Central1,4814324369307001,031
South LakelandUlverston East1,761330635681019201,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,538422374104017201,072
South LakelandUlverston South1,4475613583605301,008
South LakelandUlverston Town1,380288520580960962
South LakelandUlverston West1,369602232410770952
 Total68,34013,63328,2191,4932,97379447947,591

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Barrow and FurnessEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island2,02048877012108601,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral3,4196891,50018126902,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,8841,8571,261117991203,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,8141,8121,3845443303,296
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat3,8441,797816416002,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,7498532,31141321703,254
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,2761,4151,49779102,929
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,6229162,200439703,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,3911,4171,5512411503,008
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,9821,0632,18112156203,414
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,7021,5919241110002,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,1831,0071,7154139002,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,1541,2701,492380102,846
South LakelandBroughton1,7188322307024301,177
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley170761227020117
South LakelandLow Furness1,3336311579122130914
South LakelandMid Furness3,0891,195447399304402,115
South LakelandUlverston Central1,50652240763122601,030
South LakelandUlverston East1,79058451162274201,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,5646083099306101,071
South LakelandUlverston South1,4716342955712201,009
South LakelandUlverston Town1,403439422620380961
South LakelandUlverston West1,392686202440210953
 Total68,34022,38222,5941,279962375047,591

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Barrow and Furness

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Barrow and Furness.

Barrow and FurnessPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow Island2,02044878810129901,384
Barrow-in-FurnessCentral3,4196221,531151611302,342
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton North4,8841,7611,311991561903,346
Barrow-in-FurnessDalton South4,8141,7171,4294694903,295
Barrow-in-FurnessHawcoat3,8441,721850354502,633
Barrow-in-FurnessHindpool4,7497592,35535822303,254
Barrow-in-FurnessNewbarns4,2761,3311,535652602,930
Barrow-in-FurnessOrmsgill4,6228252,2403851303,166
Barrow-in-FurnessParkside4,3911,3301,59120561103,008
Barrow-in-FurnessRisedale4,9829652,22510206803,414
Barrow-in-FurnessRoosecote3,7021,518957947502,536
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney North4,1839251,7523180502,865
Barrow-in-FurnessWalney South4,1541,1881,5283121602,846
South LakelandBroughton1,71879825059244601,177
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley170731523320116
South LakelandLow Furness1,3336051757742160915
South LakelandMid Furness3,0891,134501337915202,115
South LakelandUlverston Central1,50649242453322801,029
South LakelandUlverston East1,79054953152494501,226
South LakelandUlverston North1,56457732978236401,071
South LakelandUlverston South1,47160531248202401,009
South LakelandUlverston Town1,4034114385219400960
South LakelandUlverston West1,3926592173717230953
 Total68,34021,01323,2841,0781,743472047,590

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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