Bedfordshire North East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Bedfordshire North East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Alistair Burt  (CON)
County/Area: Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 86,988
Turnout: 73.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON39,13960.9%57.2%
LAB18,27728.5%28.8%
LIB3,6935.8%5.8%
UKIP1,8963.0%5.3%
Green1,2151.9%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority20,86232.5%Pred Maj 28.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
11%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bedfordshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Bedfordshire North East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%57%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job58%53%51%
High SEC60%53%51%
Average Age49.849.448.5
ABC1 Class62%55%53%

Bedfordshire North East ranks #299 for "Leave", #53 for "Right" and #119 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bedfordshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Bedfordshire North East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Bedfordshire North East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Bedfordshire North East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Bedfordshire North East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Bedfordshire North EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BedfordBromham and Biddenham20155,1231,318701000
BedfordClapham20151,1405111084201240
BedfordEastcotts2015539344804000
BedfordGoldington20151,5092,2521,8166632180
BedfordGreat Barford20154,85701,41907320
BedfordHarrold20151,762022303770
BedfordKempston Rural20152,074540343000
BedfordOakley20159141528417142955
BedfordRiseley20151,2062351423440154
BedfordSharnbrook20158862669801581,042
BedfordWyboston20151,618031602680
Central BedfordshireArlesey201510,9753,56301,93901,532
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade North20153,0661,88709254300
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade South20154,5571,91801,209646779
Central BedfordshireNorthill2015932255033100
Central BedfordshirePotton20152,6077950003,059
Central BedfordshireSandy20157,4241,9042,6563,45401,590
Central BedfordshireStotfold and Langford201510,2161,57001,6671,1723,023

Bedfordshire North EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordBromham and Biddenham5,6893,1378074290004,373
BedfordClapham3,7121,41263313452015402,853
BedfordEastcotts2,6306464129630002,021
BedfordGoldington5379614411642140412
BedfordGreat Barford5,5462,9540863044504,262
BedfordHarrold3,3451,9180243041002,571
BedfordKempston Rural94951213385000730
BedfordOakley3,06092715485174439692,352
BedfordRiseley2,7521,22623914435001572,116
BedfordSharnbrook3,28891427410101631,0752,527
BedfordWyboston2,8981,6370320027102,228
Central BedfordshireArlesey6,3792,988970052804174,903
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade North5,8632,1901,348066130704,506
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade South7,6182,9291,23307774155015,855
Central BedfordshireNorthill2,3401,1043020392001,798
Central BedfordshirePotton6,3191,9605980002,3004,858
Central BedfordshireSandy10,2633,4398821,2301,60007377,888
Central BedfordshireStotfold and Langford10,3644,61170907525291,3657,966
 Total83,55234,6008,8384,7135,7962,7517,52164,219

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Bedfordshire North EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordBromham and Biddenham5,9232,9871,03730793304,373
BedfordClapham3,8651,4941,0271311564502,853
BedfordEastcotts2,738906652414351502,022
BedfordGoldington559134205531460412
BedfordGreat Barford5,7742,9527003994516704,263
BedfordHarrold3,4831,8444181821011702,571
BedfordKempston Rural98849817948230730
BedfordOakley3,1861,428748102383602,352
BedfordRiseley2,8651,443459111742802,115
BedfordSharnbrook3,4231,43089413336602,526
BedfordWyboston3,0171,668287171148802,228
Central BedfordshireArlesey6,6413,1681,3851441545304,904
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade North6,1042,2781,64418126913304,505
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade South7,9313,2881,96926420912605,856
Central BedfordshireNorthill2,4361,22643244831401,799
Central BedfordshirePotton6,5792,8881,745102526904,856
Central BedfordshireSandy10,6854,3792,3026335343907,887
Central BedfordshireStotfold and Langford10,7905,1292,19327319317807,966
 Total83,55239,14018,2763,6921,8941,216064,219

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Bedfordshire North East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Bedfordshire North East.

Bedfordshire North EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordBromham and Biddenham5,9232,8231,05430711256204,372
BedfordClapham3,8651,3871,03813122360132,852
BedfordEastcotts2,738830660414832592,021
BedfordGoldington559119207532482413
BedfordGreat Barford5,7742,793717399146189204,264
BedfordHarrold3,4831,74842818271130122,571
BedfordKempston Rural988471182481973730
BedfordOakley3,1861,3407571029448112,352
BedfordRiseley2,8651,36446711112439102,115
BedfordSharnbrook3,4231,3369041336379122,527
BedfordWyboston3,0171,5852961716799102,228
Central BedfordshireArlesey6,6412,9851,40414427078234,904
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade North6,1042,1091,662181376156214,505
Central BedfordshireBiggleswade South7,9313,0691,992264348156275,856
Central BedfordshireNorthill2,4361,159439441262381,799
Central BedfordshirePotton6,5792,7061,76410216794234,856
Central BedfordshireSandy10,6854,0842,33363372180377,888
Central BedfordshireStotfold and Langford10,7904,8312,224273381219377,965
 Total83,55236,73918,5283,6923,4151,54629864,218

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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