Belfast East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Belfast East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 63,495
Turnout: 67.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP23,91755.8%
MIN15,44336.0%
UUP1,4083.3%
SF8942.1%
Green5611.3%
OTH5001.2%
SDLP1670.4%
LIB Majority8,47419.8%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 49%
51% Leave

Belfast East ranks #371 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Belfast East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Belfast East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Belfast East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Belfast East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Belfast EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett201435449017639075022
BelfastBeersbridge201441757720745088426
BelfastBelmont201435613487871178776
BelfastBloomfield201438953919342082525
BelfastConnswater201436851018340078123
BelfastCregagh201435048417338074122
BelfastGarnerville201435914492881188783
BelfastGilnahirk201437014506911228807
BelfastHillfoot201436750818240077723
BelfastKnock201437414512921238816
BelfastMerok201436250118039076723
BelfastOrangefield201439154219443082925
BelfastSandown201432812450811087717
BelfastShandon201437314511921238815
BelfastStormont201436114494881198788
BelfastSydenham201433746716737071521
BelfastWoodstock201434047116937072122
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood20148604750660354
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh201411506340880472
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald20149405170720385
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler201410005500760409
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge20149405190720386

Belfast EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,7414916802445401,041312,541
BelfastBeersbridge4,4065798012876201,227362,992
BelfastBelmont3,32943616597107143109512,260
BelfastBloomfield4,1135407482685801,145352,794
BelfastConnswater3,8925117082545601,084322,645
BelfastCregagh1,553204282101220432131,054
BelfastGarnerville3,1424111656410113598972,133
BelfastGilnahirk3,46245417620112150109892,352
BelfastHillfoot1,4221872599320039612967
BelfastKnock3,50145917628113151101,0012,379
BelfastMerok2,994393544196420833252,033
BelfastOrangefield3,237425589211470900272,199
BelfastSandown3,075402155529913298792,088
BelfastShandon3,49745817627113151101,0002,376
BelfastStormont3,38044317606108146109662,296
BelfastSydenham3,564468648232510992292,420
BelfastWoodstock486931013032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,904113062608704671,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,5401520835011606221,725
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,071124068109505071,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,2031320725010005391,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,079124068409505091,412
 Total63,1537,5125,3839,6341,1661,5018,1319,56742,894

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Belfast EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,76192211,653001146602,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430109251,947001357772,993
BelfastBelmont3,34782099505311,1282,259
BelfastBloomfield4,135101231,817001267272,794
BelfastConnswater3,91396221,721001196872,645
BelfastCregagh1,56138968600472741,054
BelfastGarnerville3,15977093905011,0642,131
BelfastGilnahirk3,4818511,03505611,1742,352
BelfastHillfoot1,4303586290044251967
BelfastKnock3,5208611,04705611,1882,379
BelfastMerok3,01074171,32300925282,034
BelfastOrangefield3,25580181,43100995722,200
BelfastSandown3,09275091904911,0432,087
BelfastShandon3,5168611,04505611,1872,376
BelfastStormont3,3988311,01005511,1472,297
BelfastSydenham3,58388201,575001096292,421
BelfastWoodstock481021001831
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,91421072703305121,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,55428097104306821,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,08223079203605561,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,21525084203705921,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,09023079503605591,413
 Total63,1531,40816723,920056089315,94542,894

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Belfast East

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Belfast East.

Belfast EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,76192211,653001146602,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430109251,947001357772,993
BelfastBelmont3,34782099505311,1282,259
BelfastBloomfield4,135101231,817001267272,794
BelfastConnswater3,91396221,721001196872,645
BelfastCregagh1,56138968600472741,054
BelfastGarnerville3,15977093905011,0642,131
BelfastGilnahirk3,4818511,03505611,1742,352
BelfastHillfoot1,4303586290044251967
BelfastKnock3,5208611,04705611,1882,379
BelfastMerok3,01074171,32300925282,034
BelfastOrangefield3,25580181,43100995722,200
BelfastSandown3,09275091904911,0432,087
BelfastShandon3,5168611,04505611,1872,376
BelfastStormont3,3988311,01005511,1472,297
BelfastSydenham3,58388201,575001096292,421
BelfastWoodstock481021001831
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,91421072703305121,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,55428097104306821,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,08223079203605561,407
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,21525084203705921,496
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,09023079503605591,413
 Total63,1531,40816723,920056089315,94542,893

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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